The Future of Farms: Study Predicts Global Decline in Number of Farms and Increase in Farm Size
Introduction
The number of farms globally is projected to decrease by half by the end of the century, while the average size of existing farms will double, according to a new study conducted by researchers at the University of Colorado-Boulder. The study analyzes the historical data on farm numbers and sizes from the 1960s to the present and makes projections until 2100.
Methodology
Zia Mehrabi, an assistant professor of environmental studies at UC-Boulder, utilized data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine agricultural area, gross domestic product per capita, and rural population size of over 180 countries. He reconstructed the evolution of farm numbers from 1969 to 2013 and projected these numbers until 2100.
Findings
The analysis reveals that the number of farms will decline from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. This decline is attributed to the migration of people from rural to urban areas as countries experience economic growth. The consolidation of farms and the increase in farm size have already been observed in the United States and Western Europe for several decades.
Regional Trends
The transition from farm creation to widespread consolidation is expected to occur as early as 2050 in Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa will follow a similar course later in the century.
Impact on Biodiversity and Food Supply
The shift towards larger farms poses a threat to biodiversity, as larger farms tend to have less biodiversity and more monocultures. Smaller farms, on the other hand, have greater biodiversity and crop diversity, making them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks. Additionally, Mehrabi’s previous research indicates that the world’s smallest farms, which occupy only 25 percent of the agricultural land, produce one-third of the world’s food. Therefore, maintaining a diverse portfolio of food sources is crucial for long-term food security.
Benefits and Challenges of Farm Consolidation
Farm consolidation can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth, as well as provide individuals with greater economic opportunities and career choices within or outside the agricultural sector. However, it is important to provide support systems and education for future farmers, as the agriculture industry has high suicide rates. Policies should also be implemented to ensure biodiversity conservation, climate resilience, preservation of indigenous knowledge, and the enhancement of rural economies worldwide.
Conclusion
The projected decline in the number of farms and the increase in farm size highlight the need for sustainable agricultural practices and policies that align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals include ensuring food security, promoting sustainable agriculture, protecting biodiversity, and supporting rural communities. By addressing these challenges, we can create a more resilient and equitable agricultural system for future generations.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
-
SDGs Addressed
- SDG 2: Zero Hunger
- SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
- SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
- SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
- SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
- SDG 15: Life on Land
-
Specific Targets
- SDG 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists, and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets, and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment.
- SDG 8.3: Promote development-oriented policies that support productive activities, decent job creation, entrepreneurship, creativity, and innovation, and encourage the formalization and growth of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises, including through access to financial services.
- SDG 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all.
- SDG 11.3: By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated, and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries.
- SDG 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
- SDG 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity, and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species.
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Indicators
- Number of farms globally
- Average existing farm size
- Agricultural area
- Gross domestic product per capita
- Rural-population size
- Number of farms in specific regions
- Biodiversity on farms
- Crop diversity on farms
- Labor productivity in farming
- Economic growth in non-farm employment
Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 2: Zero Hunger | SDG 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists, and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets, and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment. | Number of farms globally Average existing farm size |
| SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth | SDG 8.3: Promote development-oriented policies that support productive activities, decent job creation, entrepreneurship, creativity, and innovation, and encourage the formalization and growth of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises, including through access to financial services. | Labor productivity in farming Economic growth in non-farm employment |
| SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure | SDG 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all. | Agricultural area Gross domestic product per capita |
| SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities | SDG 11.3: By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated, and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries. | Rural-population size |
| SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production | SDG 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. | Biodiversity on farms Crop diversity on farms |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | SDG 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity, and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species. | Biodiversity on farms |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: agupdate.com
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