The Impact of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields in the United States
Introduction
The United States is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn and soybeans globally. However, the changing climate poses a threat to these crops and could impact their yields, ultimately affecting production and export availability.
Estimating Future Yields
A study was conducted to estimate future yields using a crop-yield specification that considers adaptation to climate change. The study analyzed data from two time periods, 1996-2016 and 2016-2036, and found that corn and soybean yields increased during the first period. However, climate variables indicated increasing temperatures and mild declines in precipitation.
Impact on Corn Yields
The study projected that corn yields in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Minnesota, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern states would likely decline due to increasing temperatures. However, Illinois would benefit from an overall increase in heat despite an increase in extreme temperature days. Georgia counties would benefit from increased cumulative growing-degree days temperature but suffer from a greater amount of extreme-degree-days temperature.
Impact on Soybean Yields
The study found greater variability in soybean yields compared to corn yields. Some counties benefited from heat below the threshold and also from heat above the threshold, suggesting that soybeans require a larger amount of cumulative growing-degree days for optimal production conditions. Precipitation patterns in the Midwest followed similar trends as heat, indicating a susceptibility to floods in soybean-producing states.
Economic Effects
A computable general equilibrium model was used to estimate the potential economic effects of changing yields. The model analyzed changes in agricultural outputs and trade patterns. The results showed that corn exports would increase by 0.36%, while soybean exports would decrease by 1.17%. These changes reflect the stagnation of crop-yield growth towards the middle of the century.
Conclusion
The study highlights the potential impact of climate change on corn and soybean yields in the United States. While corn yields may increase due to higher temperatures, soybean yields are expected to decrease. These changes could have implications for global trade and food security. Further research is needed to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production worldwide.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
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SDGs addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article:
- SDG 2: Zero Hunger
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 15: Life on Land
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Specific targets under those SDGs based on the article’s content:
- SDG 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
- SDG 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
- SDG 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity, and protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species.
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Indicators mentioned or implied in the article:
- Crop-yield estimates for corn and soybeans
- Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns
- Changes in land use and allocation
- Changes in agricultural production and trade
Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 2: Zero Hunger | SDG 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality. | Crop-yield estimates for corn and soybeans |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | SDG 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. | Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | SDG 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity, and protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species. | Changes in land use and allocation |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: agupdate.com
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