Linking climate change to agricultural production loss
In today’s interconnected world, overlaying and compounding risks lead to both indirect and direct impacts on agriculture. Risk is omnipresent and is growing at a rate that is outstripping our efforts to reduce it. The interconnectedness of global systems, including food systems, means they are more vulnerable in an increasingly uncertain and changing risk landscape. Global risks like climate change, environmental degradation and biodiversity loss are existential in nature, and contribute to increasing disaster risk. Beyond the direct impact of disasters, indirect, cascading impacts are also significant, even at the global level. This section discusses the systemic nature of risk from the perspective of the agriculture sector.
Addressing risk requires not only an assessment of the direct impacts of disasters, but also an understanding of how the impact of disasters cascade within and across sectors and over geographic areas, the way in which elements of affected systems interact with each other during a hazard event and the systemic factors driving risks. This depends on the context in which the risk manifests, including the adverse or positive outcomes of policies and actions. The future cost of damage and loss will continue to escalate unless vulnerability and exposure to hazards, along with other concurrent crises, are systematically addressed.
This part of the report builds on the analysis presented in Part 2 by advancing an understanding of the drivers and the increasing exposure to systemic risk in agriculture. It does so through a series of case studies selected based on four criteria: i) scale of impacts; ii) data availability; iii) recent occurrence; and iv) evidence of implications on a scale from the origin of the hazard to global. The study cases that are presented reflect the main underlying risk drivers, which are climate change, pandemics and epidemics, and conflicts. The limited availability of case studies and data sets restricts the amount of evidence that can be drawn upon, and although disasters and crises affect vulnerable populations such as women, older persons, persons with disabilities, migrants, or Indigenous Peoples, it was not possible at this stage to unpack these subdimensions in detail within the following case studies.
3.1.1 Attribution of the impacts of climate change on agriculture
Climate change is contributing to a rise in hazard incidence, leading to increased vulnerability and exposure and diminishing the coping capacity of individuals and systems.5 The consequences are manifested not only in the loss of crops and agricultural production, but also in the devastation of agricultural livelihoods with cascading negative chain reactions with long-lasting effects at the domestic, community, national, regional and even international levels.
Agriculture is particularly exposed and vulnerable to a multitude of changes and events in the climate system, impacting agricultural production, food security and agricultural livelihoods (FIGURE 33). When occurring simultaneously with other disasters and crises, such as biological hazards and conflict (explored later in Part 3), climate change risks will become increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Climate and weather-related hazards are already affecting food security, particularly in low-latitude regions, and the likelihood of abrupt and irreversible changes and their impacts is estimated with a high level of probability to increase with higher global warming levels. According to the IPCC report, cereal prices will increase by 1–29 percent in 2050 due to climate change, and an additional 1–183 million people will be at risk of hunger.137 Enhancing the understanding of how climate change is driving disaster risk in food systems is essential for understanding how food systems will be impacted, and should influence the design of the policies, programmes, and financing mechanisms necessary to strengthen the resilience of agriculture and agrifood systems.
FIGURE 33 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS AND RELEVANT ATTRIBUTION CONCEPTS
Sources: Authors’ own elaboration based on extending concepts from O’Neill, B., van Aalst, M., Zaiton Ibrahim, Z., Berrang Ford, L., Bhadwal, S., Buhaug, H., Diaz, D. et al. 2022. Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press and the wider literature.
The analysis method outlined in this chapter concentrates on agricultural crops. It isolates the climate change contribution and models the impacts while considering the interactions of multiple climate hazards.
3.1.1 Attribution of the impacts of climate change on agriculture
Attribution sciences offers an entry point for estimating the effect of climate change on crop yields and the degree to which agricultural production is being influenced by extreme and slow-onset events exacerbated by climate change. Attribution science is defined as evaluating and communicating linkages associated with climate change,43,138 such as between greenhouse gas emissions over climate and extreme weather events and impacts in human and natural systems. Synthesizing such linkages builds up
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
- SDG 2: Zero Hunger
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 15: Life on Land
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
- SDG 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
- SDG 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
- SDG 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands, in line with obligations under international agreements.
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
- Indicator for SDG 2.4: Proportion of agricultural area under productive and sustainable agriculture.
- Indicator for SDG 13.1: Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies.
- Indicator for SDG 15.1: Proportion of important sites for terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity that are covered by protected areas.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 2: Zero Hunger | 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality. | Proportion of agricultural area under productive and sustainable agriculture. |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. | Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies. |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands, in line with obligations under international agreements. | Proportion of important sites for terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity that are covered by protected areas. |
Note: The indicators listed are examples and may not be the only indicators relevant to measuring progress towards the identified targets.
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Source: fao.org
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