Introduction
The following report examines the potential impact of complying with global sustainability goals and the Baltic Sea Action Plan on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. The study, conducted by the BalticAPP research project, utilizes computer models to project future changes in ecosystem services and emphasizes the importance of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in shaping these outcomes.
Ecosystem Services and the Baltic Sea
Ecosystem services, such as swimming in clean waters, sustainable fisheries, and biodiversity, are influenced by various factors including environmental change and societal development. The Baltic Sea is particularly vulnerable to these influences. To understand how ecosystem services may change in the future, the study combines projections of global climate change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with scenarios of societal development over the next century.
Projections and Interdisciplinary Models
The study utilizes interdisciplinary models to analyze the complex relationship between society and the environment. By scaling down global projections to a Baltic Sea level, the researchers examine the impact of factors such as population growth, dietary habits, and agricultural practices on the ecosystem. Hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and ecological models are then used to assess the emissions and subsequent effects on ecosystem services.
Pessimistic Scenario: Fossil-Fueled Development
The first scenario considered in the study is a fossil-fueled development with minimal regulations on eutrophication and fisheries. This scenario aligns with the IPCC’s climate scenario RCP 8.5, which predicts significant global climate effects. Under this scenario, increased cyanobacterial blooms are expected throughout the Baltic Sea during the summer. These blooms reduce recreational opportunities, with an average of 60 algae blooming days per summer season, potentially increasing to 80 days between May and October. Additionally, eutrophication benefits less commercially profitable fish species.
Optimistic Scenario: Sustainable Well-Being
The second scenario explores a sustainable well-being alternative, in which global development aligns with the UN’s SDGs and strong climate policies. This scenario aims to reduce emissions by 2040 and implement measures to prevent eutrophication. Under these conditions, the models predict a recovery of the Baltic Sea floor from hypoxic conditions and the establishment of benthic species in new areas. The scenario also leads to a more diverse fish community, with economically valuable species like flounders increasing in future catches. Furthermore, the number of algae bloom days decreases in all basins of the Baltic Sea, with the blooming period in the Bornholm Basin reduced by half.
Conclusion
The study demonstrates the potential range of future outcomes for the Baltic Sea ecosystem based on different development scenarios. While the scenarios presented are not definitive conclusions, they highlight the importance of sustainable development and the SDGs in preserving ecosystem services. By complying with global sustainability goals and the Baltic Sea Action Plan, it is possible to regain valuable fisheries, reduce algal blooms, and enhance biological diversity in the Baltic Sea.
Further Reading
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
- SDG 14: Life Below Water
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 2: Zero Hunger
- SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
The issues highlighted in the article are connected to SDG 14 (Life Below Water) as it discusses the impact of environmental change and societal development on the marine ecosystem and the ecosystem services provided by the Baltic Sea. It also touches upon SDG 13 (Climate Action) as it mentions the global climate projections and their effects on the marine environment. Additionally, SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) are indirectly connected as they are influenced by the changes in fish populations and algal blooms in the Baltic Sea.
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
- Target 14.1: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, particularly from land-based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution.
- Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration to achieve healthy and productive oceans.
- Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
- Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
- Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water, and soil pollution and contamination.
The article’s content identifies targets related to marine pollution prevention (Target 14.1), sustainable management and protection of marine ecosystems (Target 14.2), resilience to climate-related hazards (Target 13.1), sustainable food production systems (Target 2.4), and reduction of illnesses from pollution (Target 3.9).
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
- Indicator: Number of algae bloom days per summer season
- Indicator: Expansion or retraction of the oxygen-free sea floor
- Indicator: Increase in economically valuable fish species in future catches
The article mentions indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets. The number of algae bloom days per summer season is an indicator of the impact of eutrophication on the Baltic Sea and can be used to assess progress towards Target 14.1. The expansion or retraction of the oxygen-free sea floor is an indicator of the ecological health of the Baltic Sea and can be used to measure progress towards Target 14.2. The increase in economically valuable fish species in future catches is an indicator of sustainable fisheries management and can be used to assess progress towards Target 2.4.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 14: Life Below Water | Target 14.1: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, particularly from land-based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution. | Number of algae bloom days per summer season |
| SDG 14: Life Below Water | Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration to achieve healthy and productive oceans. | Expansion or retraction of the oxygen-free sea floor |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. | N/A |
| SDG 2: Zero Hunger | Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality. | Increase in economically valuable fish species in future catches |
| SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being | Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water, and soil pollution and contamination. | N/A |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: su.se
Join us, as fellow seekers of change, on a transformative journey at https://sdgtalks.ai/welcome, where you can become a member and actively contribute to shaping a brighter future.
