Scenario 1: Most Optimistic (1.5°C by 2050) – SSP1-1.9
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, released on August 9, 2021, presents five potential future scenarios for the physical science of climate change. These scenarios are based on complex IPCC modeling, which considers the rate at which humans reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the IPCC’s models also incorporate socioeconomic factors such as population growth, urbanization, education, land use, and wealth distribution. For instance, the IPCC projects that population increases can lead to higher fossil fuel and water demands, while education can accelerate technological advancements. Deforestation for agriculture also contributes to rising emissions, according to IPCC findings. Each scenario is categorized by its emissions level and corresponding Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP).
Scenario 2: Next Best (1.8°C by 2100) – SSP1-2.6
In this scenario, global CO2 emissions are significantly reduced but at a slower pace, reaching net-zero after 2050. Socioeconomic shifts toward sustainability resemble those in Scenario 1, but temperatures stabilize at 1.8°C by century’s end.
Scenario 3: Middle of the Road (2.7°C by 2100) – SSP2-4.5
This “middle-of-the-road” scenario features CO2 emissions hovering near current levels before declining mid-century without reaching net-zero by 2100. Socioeconomic factors follow historical trends with gradual progress towards sustainability and uneven development. Temperatures rise by 2.7°C by century’s end.
Scenario 4: Dangerous (3.6°C by 2100) – SSP3-7.0
Emissions and temperatures increase steadily in this scenario, with CO2 emissions doubling from current levels by 2100. Countries prioritize national security and food supplies, fostering competition. Average temperatures rise by 3.6°C by century’s end.
Scenario 5: Avoid at All Costs (4.4°C by 2100) – SSP5-8.5
This worst-case scenario, as outlined by the IPCC, involves a doubling of current CO2 emissions by 2050. Rapid economic growth is fueled by fossil fuels and energy-intensive lifestyles. The IPCC projects average global temperature to soar by 4.4°C by 2100.
Conclusion
While the IPCC cannot predict the most likely scenario, as this depends on factors such as government policies, the report clearly outlines the potential consequences of different pathways. The IPCC’s findings indicate that all scenarios involve continued warming for decades, rising sea levels for centuries to millennia, and Arctic ice-free summers within 30 years. The rate of sea-level rise and the severity of weather events will vary based on the chosen path. Accelerating CO2 reduction is crucial, as emphasized by the IPCC, to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.
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SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning | Indicator: Investments in education and health rise | |
| Target 13.A: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 13.B: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities | Target 10.1: By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population at a rate higher than the national average | Indicator: Inequality decreases |
| Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic, and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion, or economic or other status | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 10.3: Ensure equal opportunity and reduce inequalities of outcome, including by eliminating discriminatory laws, policies, and practices and promoting appropriate legislation, policies, and action in this regard | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 10.4: Adopt policies, especially fiscal, wage, and social protection policies, and progressively achieve greater equality | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 10.5: Improve the regulation and monitoring of global financial markets and institutions and strengthen the implementation of such regulations | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
SDG 13: Climate Action
The article primarily focuses on the potential future scenarios for the physical science of climate change, which aligns with SDG 13: Climate Action. The scenarios presented in the article explore different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and their corresponding impacts on global temperatures.
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
The article briefly mentions that in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 1), inequality decreases. While the focus of the article is on climate change scenarios, this mention connects to SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities, which aims to reduce inequalities within and among countries.
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
The article does not provide specific information related to this target.
Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
The article does not provide specific information related to this target.
Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
The article mentions that investments in education and health rise in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 1). This aligns with the target of improving education and awareness-raising on climate change.
Target 13.A: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible
The article does not provide specific information related to this target.
Target 13.B: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities
The article does not provide specific information related to this target.
Target 10.1: By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population at a rate higher than the national average
The article mentions that inequality decreases in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 1). While the focus of the article is on climate change scenarios, this mention connects to the target of achieving income growth for the bottom 40 percent of the population.
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
The article mentions that investments in education and health rise in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 1). This can be considered as an indicator of progress towards improving education and awareness-raising on climate change (Target 13.3). Additionally, the article mentions that inequality decreases in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 1), which can be considered as an indicator of progress towards reducing inequalities (Target 10.1).
However, the article does not provide specific indicators related to the other identified targets.
4. SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning | Indicator: Investments in education and health rise | |
| Target 13.A: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 13.B: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities | Target 10.1: By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population at a rate higher than the national average | Indicator: Inequality decreases |
| Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic, and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion, or economic or other status | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 10.3: Ensure equal opportunity and reduce inequalities of outcome, including by eliminating discriminatory laws, policies, and practices and promoting appropriate legislation, policies, and action in this regard | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 10.4: Adopt policies, especially fiscal, wage, and social protection policies, and progressively achieve greater equality | Indicator not mentioned in the article | |
| Target 10.5: Improve the regulation and monitoring of global financial markets and institutions and strengthen the implementation of such regulations | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
Source: anthesisgroup.com
