‘This is a fight for life’: climate expert on tipping points, doomerism and using wealth as a shield – The Guardian

Report on Climate Crisis and Tipping Points: Emphasizing Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction to Climate Breakdown and Tipping Points

Climate breakdown is evidenced by continuous, incremental changes such as rising carbon dioxide levels, sea levels, and ocean temperatures, primarily driven by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists have identified at least 16 critical “tipping points” — thresholds where minor changes could trigger dramatic, irreversible transformations in Earth’s systems, potentially causing catastrophic effects. These tipping points may interact, creating feedback loops that exacerbate global warming and disrupt weather patterns, threatening life on Earth. Some tipping points may already have been crossed.

Significance of Discussing Tipping Points in Climate Communication

Dr. Genevieve Guenther, founder of End Climate Silence and author of The Language of Climate Politics: Fossil Fuel Propaganda and How to Fight It, highlights the importance of openly discussing catastrophic risks in climate discourse. This approach aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly:

• SDG 13: Climate Action – by raising awareness of urgent climate risks and promoting immediate mitigation efforts.
• SDG 15: Life on Land – by protecting ecosystems such as forests and biodiversity threatened by tipping points.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water – by addressing ocean circulation and coral reef degradation.

Changing Attitudes Toward Climate Risks

Following the 2018 IPCC report on limiting warming to 1.5°C, global awareness and activism surged, emphasizing the urgency of near-immediate emission reductions. This movement supported various SDGs, including:

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy – promoting renewable energy investments.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production – encouraging sustainable policies and corporate practices.

However, some climate advocates have shifted toward optimism to attract investment, downplaying worst-case scenarios. This is problematic as even a 3°C increase would be catastrophic, undermining progress toward many SDGs.

Risks of Underestimating Climate Catastrophes

The risk of collapse in systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is comparable to a high-risk event that would be unacceptable in other contexts, such as aviation safety. Ignoring these risks threatens:

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being – by endangering human health through climate impacts.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities – by increasing vulnerability to climate disasters.

Appropriate Emotional Responses and Collective Action

Dr. Guenther advocates for acknowledging fear and anxiety about climate change as appropriate and potentially motivating for collective action. She distinguishes three types of doomerism:

1. Despair from misunderstanding science, leading to fatalism.
2. Nihilism claiming exclusive insight into harsh truths.
3. Political frustration recognizing power structures perpetuating environmental harm.

Encouraging courage and collective engagement supports:

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions – by promoting civic participation and accountability.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals – through collaborative climate action.

Economic Models and the Risk of Catastrophe

Criticism of economic models, such as those by Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, reveals underestimation of climate damages by excluding tipping points and societal disruptions. This challenges assumptions underpinning:

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth – by emphasizing sustainable economic policies that account for environmental risks.

Limitations of Wealth as Protection Against Climate Impacts

While wealth may provide some protection against climate disasters, it is not unlimited. The climate crisis disproportionately affects the poor, contradicting narratives that poverty alone is the cause. This highlights the need to address:

• SDG 1: No Poverty – by protecting vulnerable populations from climate impacts.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities – by ensuring equitable climate resilience.

Comparing Gradual Warming to Acute Climate Threats

Climate change is more akin to a life-threatening disease than a manageable chronic condition. This analogy underscores the urgency and severity of climate action needed to preserve ecosystems and human civilization, supporting:

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation – by protecting water systems affected by climate change.
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger – by safeguarding food security threatened by ecosystem collapse.

Conclusion: The Role of Love and Bravery in Climate Action

Dr. Guenther emphasizes that love and protectiveness for future generations are powerful motivators in the fight against climate change. This perspective inspires hope and resilience essential for achieving the SDGs and securing a sustainable future.

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Tipping Points: On the Edge? – A Series on Our Future

Critical tipping points in ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest, Antarctic ice, and coral reefs could cause irreversible changes with devastating effects. This series explores the latest scientific insights and their implications for humanity and the planet.

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1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article focuses extensively on climate breakdown, tipping points, and the urgency of addressing global heating caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • The discussion on ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest and the impacts of climate change on forests relates to the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.
3. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • References to coral reefs and ocean circulation connect to the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, seas, and marine resources.
4. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • The article mentions climate anxiety and its psychological impacts, linking to mental health and well-being.
5. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • There is mention of driving capitalist investment into renewable technologies as a solution to fossil fuel dependency.
6. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
   • The article highlights that climate change affects the poor first and worst, indicating issues of inequality and vulnerability.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.
   • Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests.
3. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • Target 14.2: Sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts.
4. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • Target 3.4: Promote mental health and well-being.
5. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
6. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
   • Target 10.2: Empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. Indicators related to SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and greenhouse gas emissions (implied by references to “soaring carbon dioxide levels” and “human-caused greenhouse gas emissions”).
   • Frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards and tipping points (e.g., collapse of Atlantic Ocean circulation, Antarctic sea ice loss, coral reef degradation, Amazon rainforest tipping points).
   • Implementation of policies and pledges to reduce emissions (implied by mentions of new corporate sustainability targets and government policies).
2. Indicators related to SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Extent and health of forests and terrestrial ecosystems (implied by discussion of Amazon rainforest and forest fires).
3. Indicators related to SDG 14 (Life Below Water):
   • Health and coverage of coral reefs and ocean circulation patterns.
4. Indicators related to SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being):
   • Prevalence of climate anxiety and mental health conditions linked to climate change.
5. Indicators related to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy):
   • Investment levels and share of renewable energy technologies in the energy market.
6. Indicators related to SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities):
   • Disparities in climate impact vulnerability and adaptive capacity among different socioeconomic groups.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 13: Climate Action	13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate hazards 13.2 Integrate climate change measures into policies 13.3 Improve education and awareness on climate change	Atmospheric CO2 levels and greenhouse gas emissions Occurrence of climate tipping points (e.g., Amoc collapse, Antarctic sea ice loss) Adoption of emission reduction policies and corporate sustainability targets
SDG 15: Life on Land	15.1 Conservation and restoration of terrestrial ecosystems 15.2 Sustainable management of forests	Forest area and health (e.g., Amazon rainforest status) Incidence and extent of forest fires
SDG 14: Life Below Water	14.2 Sustainable management and protection of marine ecosystems	Coral reef health and coverage Ocean circulation patterns
SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being	3.4 Promote mental health and well-being	Levels of climate anxiety and related mental health indicators
SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy	7.2 Increase share of renewable energy in global energy mix	Investment in renewable energy technologies Renewable energy share in total energy consumption
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities	10.2 Empower and promote social, economic and political inclusion	Disparities in climate impact vulnerability among socioeconomic groups

Source: theguardian.com