Drought in Utah: more than a water supply issue – Utah Department of Natural Resources (.gov)

Snow Drought Conditions Report – June 9, 2025

Data current as of June 9, 2025, 12:00 a.m. PT. Conditions are subject to change.

Rocky Mountain Water Year Snow Drought Summary

Northern Rocky Mountains

Snow Drought Conditions

The Northern Rocky Mountains exhibited near- to above-median peak snow water equivalent (SWE) values, with some stations recording 70-89% of median SWE, particularly along the western Montana and eastern Idaho border. Despite adequate peak SWE, dry and warm snowmelt seasons (April-May) accelerated snowpack loss, with 84% of SNOTEL stations in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming experiencing earlier than median snowmelt dates. Approximately 20% of high-elevation stations still retain snow.

Water Supply Outlook

Forecasts from the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) predict below-median runoff (less than 80% of median) for major river basins, with the Marias, Salmon, and Upper Snake Basins forecasted at 45%, 65%, and 67% of median runoff respectively. Moderate to Severe Drought (D1–D2) conditions prevail, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipates drought persistence and development through summer.

Central and Southern Rocky Mountains

Snow Drought Conditions

Central Rocky Mountains (northern Utah and Colorado) experienced near-normal snow accumulation (85-105% of median SWE), whereas southern Utah and Colorado faced severe snow drought with many stations below 50% of median SWE, including record lows in Utah. The primary cause was an extremely dry winter with record low precipitation. Snowpack peaked and melted 1-2 weeks earlier than normal across much of the region.

Water Supply Outlook

• Upper Colorado sub-basins forecast below-median June-July flows: Upper Green (78%), Lower Green (63%), White-Yampa (59%).
• Southern Utah and Colorado basins forecast significantly lower runoff: Upper San Juan (63%), Lower San Juan (38%), Upper Colorado-Dirty Devil (48%).
• Lake Powell inflows are critically low (41% of normal in May), with reservoir capacity at 34%.
• Drought conditions (Moderate to Extreme D1-D3) are widespread and expected to intensify.

New Mexico and Arizona Water Year Snow Drought Summary

Snow Drought Conditions

Severe snow drought affected Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and southern Colorado, with most stations reporting peak SWE below 50% of median and several record lows. A dry winter influenced by a weak La Niña resulted in minimal snow accumulation. March storms provided limited relief, causing later snowmelt in some areas, but overall snow cover was sparse and melted early.

Water Supply Outlook

• Observed flows in eastern New Mexico were near or above median in some basins (Upper Pecos 144%, Upper Canadian 95%), but much lower in western basins (Upper Rio Grande 59%, Rio Grande-Elephant Butte 42%).
• Seasonal water supply forecasts predict below 25% of median flows in many New Mexico locations.
• Arizona basins recorded extremely low flows: Little Colorado (12%), Salt (15%), Verde (40%).
• Lake Mead capacity stands at 31%, with runoff forecast at 48% of median.
• State and tribal drought emergencies declared due to severe drought and fire risk.
• Extreme and Exceptional Drought (D3-D4) widespread; drought expected to persist and worsen.

Oregon and Washington Water Year Snow Drought Summary

Snow Drought Conditions

Snow drought developed early and persisted, especially on the west slope of the Washington Cascade Range, with many stations reporting 50-69% of median SWE. Low precipitation was the main driver, with some areas below the 15th percentile historically. Southern Oregon and parts of the Blue and Steens Mountains received above-median precipitation and SWE. Snowmelt occurred more than two weeks earlier than median at multiple stations.

Water Supply Outlook

• Washington basins forecast June-July runoff between 63% and 87% of median.
• Drought emergency declared for Yakima Basin and expanded to 19 additional watersheds.
• Oregon shows mixed forecasts: some basins above median runoff, others below (Middle Columbia 75%, Willamette 78%, John Day 85%).
• Moderate Drought (D1) present in Washington and northern Oregon Cascades; further drought development likely.

California and Nevada Water Year Snow Drought Summary

Snow Drought Conditions

California and western Nevada experienced generally above to near-median peak SWE in northern and central Sierra Nevada, with some southern Sierra Nevada locations below 70% of median. Northeast Nevada had above-normal SWE, while southern Nevada’s Spring Mountains had very low snowpack. Warm and dry April-May conditions accelerated snowmelt.

Water Supply Outlook

• NRCS forecasts runoff above median in eastern Sierra Nevada basins: Truckee (119%), Walker (82%), Carson (79%).
• Most major California reservoirs are above historical average levels, mitigating surface water supply concerns.
• Nevada basins forecast runoff near or below median (Central Nevada Desert 90%, Humboldt 75%, Black Rock Desert 75%).
• Drought persists in southern California and southern Nevada deserts; Extreme and Exceptional Drought (D3-D4) present in desert areas.
• Further drought development likely in central California and northwest Nevada.

Alaska Water Year Snow Drought Summary

Snow Drought Conditions

South Central Alaska experienced variable SWE dependent on elevation, with higher elevations near or above median SWE and lower elevations around 60% of median. Warm winter temperatures increased rainfall over snow at lower elevations. The Fairbanks region had abundant snowfall with SWE between 99-167% of median. Minor Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions exist in South Central Alaska.

Key Observations Across the Western United States

1. Low Precipitation as Primary Driver: Below-normal water year precipitation, especially in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Southwestern U.S., has been the main factor causing widespread snow drought conditions.
2. Earlier Snowmelt: Snowmelt occurred earlier than normal across most western regions, exacerbating water supply challenges.
3. Below-Normal Streamflow Forecasts: June-July streamflow volumes are forecasted to be below normal in most western basins, threatening water availability.

Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• SDG 6 – Clean Water and Sanitation: Persistent snow drought and reduced runoff threaten freshwater availability for ecosystems, agriculture, and communities, highlighting the need for sustainable water management and conservation strategies.
• SDG 13 – Climate Action: The observed snow drought conditions underscore the impacts of climate variability and change, emphasizing the urgency for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.
• SDG 15 – Life on Land: Drought conditions increase wildfire risk and stress terrestrial ecosystems, necessitating enhanced ecosystem resilience and sustainable land management.
• SDG 2 – Zero Hunger: Reduced water supply may impact agricultural productivity and food security in affected regions.

Contact Information for Further Details

• Daniel McEvoy
  Western Regional Climate Center
  Daniel.McEvoy@dri.edu
• Amanda Sheffield
  CIRES/NOAA/NIDIS California-Nevada Regional Drought Information Coordinator
  Amanda.Sheffield@noaa.gov
• Jason Gerlich
  CIRES/NOAA/NIDIS Pacific Northwest and Missouri River Basin Regional Drought Information Coordinator
  Jason.Gerlich@noaa.gov

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
   • The article discusses snow drought conditions affecting water supply, runoff, and river flows, which directly impact water availability and management.
2. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article highlights the influence of climate variability, such as dry winters, warm temperatures, and La Niña events, on snowpack and drought conditions.
   • It references drought forecasts and the need for climate prediction and adaptation.
3. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Drought and snow drought conditions affect ecosystems, fire risk, and land management, as noted by emergency declarations due to escalating fire risk.
4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Water scarcity and drought emergencies impact communities, as seen in state and tribal emergency declarations.

2. Specific Targets Under the Identified SDGs

1. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity.
   • Target 6.6: Protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, which are critical for snowpack and water supply.
2. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.
3. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by drought, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Target 11.5: Significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected by disasters, including water-related disasters.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. Indicators Related to SDG 6
   • Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measurements at SNOTEL stations as a proxy for water availability from snowpack.
   • Runoff forecasts and observed river flows expressed as percentages of median flows (e.g., June-July runoff forecast percentages).
   • Reservoir capacity levels (e.g., Lake Powell and Lake Mead percentages of capacity).
2. Indicators Related to SDG 13
   • Drought severity classifications (e.g., Moderate, Severe, Extreme, Exceptional Drought – D1 to D4) from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
   • Climate Prediction Center’s drought outlooks and forecasts for persistence and development of drought conditions.
   • Temperature anomalies and precipitation percentiles compared to historical records.
3. Indicators Related to SDG 15
   • Declarations of drought emergency and fire risk escalation as qualitative indicators of ecosystem stress.
4. Indicators Related to SDG 11
   • State and tribal emergency declarations indicating social impact and disaster risk.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation	6.4: Increase water-use efficiency and ensure sustainable freshwater supply. 6.6: Protect and restore water-related ecosystems.	Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measurements at SNOTEL stations. Runoff forecasts and observed river flows (% of median). Reservoir capacity levels (e.g., Lake Powell, Lake Mead).
SDG 13: Climate Action	13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate hazards. 13.3: Improve climate change education and early warning systems.	Drought severity levels (D1-D4) from U.S. Drought Monitor. Climate Prediction Center drought outlooks and forecasts. Temperature anomalies and precipitation percentiles.
SDG 15: Life on Land	15.3: Combat desertification and restore degraded land affected by drought.	Drought emergency declarations and fire risk escalation.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.5: Reduce deaths and people affected by disasters including water-related disasters.	State and tribal drought emergency declarations.

Source: drought.gov