India’s carbon offset projects wilt without community roots – Nature

Assessment of India’s Voluntary Carbon Market and Its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

A recent study evaluating India’s voluntary carbon market (VCM) reveals critical insights into the effectiveness and sustainability of tree-planting projects aimed at climate mitigation. While these projects have contributed to increased forest cover, the study highlights significant challenges regarding their longevity and socio-economic benefits to local communities, directly impacting the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Project Evaluation and Outcomes

1. Researchers employed satellite imagery and field surveys to analyze six forestry and land-use projects that had received carbon credits by 2022.
2. Only three projects—Araku, Bagepalli, and a mangrove restoration initiative in the Sundarbans—remain operational to varying extents.
3. Projects in Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh have either ceased or stalled.

The study found that tree cover increased by 48% in VCM project areas compared to 26% in control plots. However, the sustainability of these gains is threatened where projects have been discontinued, often due to lack of profitability or increased land values incentivizing alternative land use.

Community Engagement and Economic Benefits

• Sustained community engagement and economic incentives for local populations are critical for project longevity, aligning with SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).
• The three surviving projects maintained strong partnerships with NGOs focused on local livelihoods, a factor absent in failed projects.
• Households involved in ongoing projects experienced increased incomes and improved assets, supporting SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Challenges of Short-Term Focus

The study underscores the risks associated with short-term funding and profitability focus:

• Smallholder farmers often sacrifice immediate crop production and labor for long-term carbon sequestration benefits, which may take years to materialize.
• Without reliable and tangible incentives, farmers may abandon tree-planting efforts, undermining SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).
• Experts emphasize the necessity of investing in people and securing long-term funding to ensure continuous monitoring and community support.

Technological Innovations for Monitoring and Accountability

Emerging technologies offer promising tools to enhance the transparency and effectiveness of carbon projects, supporting SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions):

• AI-powered models such as DeepForest and Detectron2, combined with drone imagery, enable real-time monitoring of individual trees and carbon sequestration.
• These technologies reduce dependence on third-party audits and help prevent the issuance of phantom carbon credits based on unverifiable claims.
• Publicly accessible monitoring data can empower communities to take timely action to sustain project benefits.

Conclusion

The study highlights the importance of integrating long-term community engagement, economic viability, and innovative monitoring technologies to ensure the durability and real-world impact of voluntary carbon market projects. These factors are essential to advancing multiple Sustainable Development Goals, including climate action, poverty alleviation, sustainable livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article discusses voluntary carbon markets and tree-planting projects aimed at carbon sequestration, directly relating to climate change mitigation efforts.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Focus on increasing forest cover, agroforestry, and mangrove restoration projects aligns with sustainable management of forests and combating desertification.
3. SDG 1: No Poverty
   • The article highlights economic benefits and income improvements for local communities and smallholder farmers involved in the projects.
4. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Emphasis on sustained community engagement and economic benefits for locals supports inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
5. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • Use of new technologies such as AI-powered models and drones for monitoring carbon projects reflects innovation in infrastructure and industry.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into policies and planning (implied by the need for durable carbon market projects and long-term climate interventions).
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation (implied through community engagement and monitoring).
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: Ensure conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems (tree planting, forest cover increase, mangrove restoration).
   • Target 15.2: Promote sustainable forest management (ongoing forestry projects and agroforestry).
3. SDG 1: No Poverty
   • Target 1.2: Reduce poverty in all its dimensions (improved incomes and assets for households involved).
4. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Target 8.3: Promote development-oriented policies that support productive activities and decent job creation (support for smallholder farmers and community livelihoods).
5. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research and upgrade technological capabilities (use of AI and drones for monitoring).

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. Forest Cover Increase
   • Measured by satellite imagery comparing tree cover in VCM plots versus control plots (48% vs 26% increase).
2. Project Longevity and Operational Status
   • Number of projects remaining operational (3 out of 6) as a measure of sustainability and durability.
3. Economic Benefits to Local Communities
   • Household income and asset improvements in ongoing projects.
   • Dropout rates or neglect of trees where projects are discontinued.
4. Tree Survival Rates
   • Monitored via drone orthomosaics and AI-powered models (DeepForest, Detectron2) to quantify carbon sequestration and tree survival.
5. Carbon Credits Validity
   • Reduction of phantom credits through real-time monitoring and transparency.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: nature.com