Tortoise and Hare: Research Offers Framework for Fast and Slow Responses to Climate Change – Utah State University

Report on Ecological Responses to Climate Change and Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

Life on Earth has historically adapted to environmental changes through various ecological responses such as shifts in bird migration, fluctuations in insect populations, and plant evolution to withstand drought. However, the rapid pace of human-induced climate change is outstripping many natural adaptation processes, leading to unpredictable futures for ecosystems worldwide. This report highlights recent interdisciplinary research led by ecologists Michael Stemkovski and Peter Adler from Utah State University (USU), which introduces a new framework to anticipate ecosystem impacts of climate change by integrating fast and slow ecological processes. The framework emphasizes the importance of understanding timescales in ecological acclimation, aligning with several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 15 (Life on Land), and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Ecological Acclimation and Timescales

The research proposes that various ecological responses—physiological plasticity, species turnover, evolution, and phenological shifts—should be viewed collectively under the concept of “Ecological Acclimation,” differentiated primarily by their timescales.

1. Fast Processes: Immediate physiological changes and rapid demographic shifts such as growth or mortality.
2. Slow Processes: Evolutionary adaptations, species migration, and long-term community changes.

Understanding these timescales is crucial for predicting ecosystem trajectories and informing sustainable management practices, which directly supports SDG 15 by promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.

Challenges in Ecological Forecasting

Ecological forecasting faces significant challenges, especially at intermediate timescales (decades), which are critical for policy and management planning in forestry and wildlife conservation. The complexity arises because:

• Short-term predictions (e.g., immediate physiological responses) are relatively accurate.
• Long-term averages (e.g., climate projections over a century) can be estimated.
• Intermediate-term forecasts (e.g., 20 years ahead) remain highly uncertain due to overlapping fast and slow ecological processes.

This uncertainty complicates decision-making for natural resource managers aiming to implement adaptive strategies that align with SDG 13 by mitigating climate change impacts.

Case Study: Soil Carbon Dynamics

Long-term experiments on soil warming revealed that initially, warmer soils lost carbon; however, after a decade, carbon levels recovered and eventually increased as plant communities transitioned from flowers to shrubs. This example illustrates how slow ecological processes can reverse initial negative impacts, emphasizing the need to consider both fast and slow responses in ecosystem management.

Implications for Ecosystem Management and SDGs

Given that slow processes such as migration and evolution lag behind rapid climate changes, especially in ecosystems with long-lived organisms like forests and coral reefs, proactive management interventions may be necessary. These include:

• Assisted migration to facilitate species relocation.
• Supporting evolutionary adaptation through conservation strategies.

Such measures contribute to achieving SDG 15 by enhancing ecosystem resilience and SDG 13 by addressing climate adaptation. Furthermore, effective management requires collaboration across disciplines and stakeholders, embodying the principles of SDG 17.

Recommendations

1. Integrate timescale-focused frameworks into ecological forecasting models to improve prediction accuracy.
2. Develop adaptive management strategies that consider both immediate and long-term ecological responses.
3. Promote interdisciplinary collaboration to build shared understanding and language around ecological acclimation.
4. Invest in long-term ecological research to capture slow processes and their impacts on ecosystem services.
5. Implement assisted migration and evolutionary support where natural processes lag behind climate change.

Conclusion

The new framework emphasizing ecological acclimation across timescales offers a vital tool for anticipating and managing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. By aligning ecological forecasting and management with the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 13, SDG 15, and SDG 17, stakeholders can make informed decisions that promote resilient natural systems and sustainable development.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected to the Issues Highlighted in the Article

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article focuses on human-caused climate change and its rapid impact on ecosystems, emphasizing the need for forecasting and adaptive management to mitigate these effects.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • The discussion about ecological acclimation, species turnover, evolution, and ecosystem responses directly relates to the conservation and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.
   • Management of forests, coral reefs, and other ecosystems under climate stress is central to this goal.
3. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Implicitly connected through the emphasis on sustainable natural resource management and adaptive decision-making to avoid counterproductive long-term impacts.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified Based on the Article’s Content

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.
   • Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests, and increase afforestation and reforestation.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity, and protect threatened species.
3. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Target 12.2: Achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
   • Target 12.8: Ensure that people everywhere have the relevant information and awareness for sustainable development and lifestyles in harmony with nature.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article to Measure Progress Towards the Identified Targets

1. Indicators Related to SDG 13 (Climate Action)
   • Measurement of ecosystem responses to climate change over different timescales (fast and slow ecological acclimation processes).
   • Tracking changes in species migration, phenological shifts (e.g., timing of spring flowering), and evolution as adaptive responses.
   • Monitoring soil carbon levels and changes in plant community composition over time as indicators of ecosystem health and carbon sequestration.
2. Indicators Related to SDG 15 (Life on Land)
   • Rates of species turnover and biodiversity changes in ecosystems.
   • Extent and condition of forests and coral reefs, including shifts from flowers to shrubs in plant communities.
   • Data from global change experiments measuring physiological plasticity, demographic changes (growth, deaths), and long-term ecosystem shifts.
3. Indicators Related to SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production)
   • Effectiveness of adaptive natural resource management decisions in maintaining ecosystem resilience.
   • Collaboration and integration of ecological forecasting into policy and management frameworks as a measure of sustainable planning.

4. Table: SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: usu.edu