Examining the latest K-12 public school enrollment data and trends – Reason Foundation

Report on Public School Enrollment Trends and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The latest federal data reveal significant declines in public school enrollment across the United States, influenced by multiple factors including declining birth rates, domestic migration, and increased preference for private schooling and homeschooling during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This report emphasizes the implications of these trends in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

1. Decline in Public School Enrollment Since COVID-19

Between fiscal years (FY) 2020 and 2024, public school enrollment in the U.S. fell by approximately 1.28 million students, a 2.5% decrease. States such as New York, California, Mississippi, and West Virginia experienced declines exceeding 5%. Conversely, only nine states reported enrollment growth during this period, with North Dakota achieving over 2% growth.

This decline challenges SDG 4 by potentially limiting equitable access to quality education for all children.

2. Short-Term Enrollment Recovery and Recent Declines

Following initial pandemic losses, public school enrollment saw slight recoveries in FY 2022 and FY 2023. However, FY 2024 data indicate a renewed decline of over 102,000 students nationwide, with 39 states experiencing decreases. The largest declines occurred in West Virginia (-1.7%), Arkansas (-1.7%), and Wyoming (-1.5%). Meanwhile, New Jersey, South Carolina, and North Dakota recorded modest increases.

3. Pre-Pandemic Enrollment Growth

From 2012 to 2020, public school enrollment increased by 1.3 million students (2.6%), with significant growth in North Dakota (19%), Utah (14.3%), and Nevada (13%). This period reflected progress towards SDG 4 by expanding educational access.

4. Impact of COVID-19 on State-Level Enrollment Trends

The pandemic exacerbated existing enrollment declines in states such as New Hampshire (-7.6%), West Virginia (-6.9%), and Illinois (-6.7%). In contrast, states like Oregon and Washington, which had experienced growth pre-pandemic, saw reversals with enrollment losses of 6.2% and 4.2% respectively post-pandemic. States including New York, California, and Massachusetts also shifted from stable to declining enrollment trends.

5. Projected Enrollment Declines and Policy Implications

The National Center for Education Statistics projects a continued decline in public school enrollment to 46.9 million students by FY 2032, a 5.3% decrease from 2024. States such as Hawaii, California, Mississippi, New Mexico, and New York are expected to lose over 12% of their student populations. Only 13 states are forecasted to experience enrollment growth.

These trends pose challenges to achieving SDG 4 and SDG 10 by potentially increasing educational disparities and straining resources.

Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

• SDG 4 (Quality Education): Declining enrollment threatens universal access to inclusive and equitable quality education, necessitating adaptive strategies to maintain educational standards and accessibility.
• SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities): Variations in enrollment trends across states may exacerbate regional educational inequalities, requiring targeted interventions.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Changes in school utilization affect community planning and resource allocation.
• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): Collaboration among federal, state, and local policymakers is essential to address enrollment challenges effectively.

Key Recommendations for Policymakers

1. Adjust Budget and Resource Allocation: Align funding and infrastructure planning with current and projected enrollment figures to optimize resource use.
2. Support Alternative Education Models: Recognize and integrate homeschooling and private schooling trends to ensure inclusive educational opportunities.
3. Enhance Data Monitoring: Utilize state-level and longitudinal data to identify and respond to enrollment trends promptly.
4. Promote Equity-Focused Policies: Address disparities in enrollment declines to uphold SDG 10 by supporting underserved communities.
5. Engage Stakeholders: Foster partnerships among educators, families, and policymakers to develop sustainable education strategies aligned with SDGs.

Conclusion

Public school enrollment in the United States has experienced a significant decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, reversing previous growth trends and posing challenges to achieving Sustainable Development Goals related to education and equality. State-specific variations highlight the need for localized policy responses. Proactive measures are essential to adapt to these demographic shifts, ensure equitable access to quality education, and sustain progress towards the SDGs in the coming decade.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected to the Issues Highlighted in the Article

1. SDG 4: Quality Education
   • The article focuses on public school enrollment trends, which directly relate to ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all.
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • Declining birth rates and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on schooling indirectly connect to health and well-being issues.
3. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
   • Variations in enrollment trends across states and the shift to private schools and homeschooling may reflect inequalities in access to education.
4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Domestic migration affecting enrollment trends links to urban planning and sustainable community development.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified Based on the Article’s Content

1. SDG 4: Quality Education
   • Target 4.1: Ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes.
   • Target 4.5: Eliminate gender disparities in education and ensure equal access to all levels of education and vocational training for vulnerable populations.
   • Target 4.a: Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments.
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • Target 3.7: Ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services, which relates to birth rate trends mentioned.
3. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
   • Target 10.2: Empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.
4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Target 11.3: Enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article to Measure Progress Towards the Identified Targets

1. SDG 4 Indicators
   • Indicator 4.1.1: Proportion of children and young people achieving minimum proficiency in reading and mathematics, by sex.
   • Indicator 4.2.2: Participation rate in organized learning (one year before the official primary entry age), by sex.
   • Indicator 4.5.1: Parity indices (female/male, rural/urban, bottom/top wealth quintile and others such as disability status, indigenous peoples and conflict-affected, as data become available) for all education indicators.
   • Enrollment rates: The article provides detailed data on public school enrollment numbers and trends, which serve as key indicators to monitor access and participation in education.
2. SDG 3 Indicators
   • Indicator 3.7.1: Proportion of women of reproductive age (aged 15–49 years) who have their need for family planning satisfied with modern methods.
   • Birth rate data: The article mentions declining birth rates, which can be tracked to understand demographic changes affecting education.
3. SDG 10 Indicators
   • Indicator 10.2.1: Proportion of people living below 50% of median income, by age, sex and persons with disabilities.
   • Enrollment disparities: Variations in enrollment across states and shifts to private schooling and homeschooling imply indicators related to inequality in education access.
4. SDG 11 Indicators
   • Indicator 11.3.1: Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate.
   • Migration data: Domestic migration trends affecting school enrollment can be used as an indicator of urbanization and community changes.

4. Table: SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: reason.org