Prices of sorghum and millet at very high levels in April 2025, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict – Food and Agriculture Organization

Report on Cereal Price Trends and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Implications

Executive Summary: Price Analysis for April 2025

An analysis of national average retail prices for April 2025 reveals significant volatility in staple food costs, directly impacting progress towards key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The data indicates a divergence in price trends for essential cereals:

• Sorghum: The price of domestically produced sorghum experienced a 3 percent decline.
• Millet: Conversely, the average price of millet increased by 4 percent.

Critically, the prices for both sorghum and millet have escalated to levels more than four times higher than their pre-conflict values recorded in March 2023. This extreme inflation severely threatens food security and economic stability.

Contributing Factors to Sustained Price Inflation

The current price crisis is the culmination of a sustained increasing trend that began in late 2017. This trend undermines efforts to achieve SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by making basic foodstuffs unaffordable. The primary drivers include:

1. Macroeconomic Instability: A challenging national macroeconomic situation has persistently driven up costs.
2. High Operational Costs: Elevated prices for fuel and agricultural inputs have inflated production and transportation costs across the supply chain.
3. Political Instability and Conflict: Heightened political instability since 2019 and the outbreak of conflict in April 2023 have exerted significant upward pressure on all prices, disrupting markets and supply lines.

Impact on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The persistent and sharp increase in cereal prices has profound negative implications for the achievement of several SDGs.

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): The core challenge is the direct threat to food security. The dramatic price increases for sorghum and millet, staple foods for a large portion of the population, make it increasingly difficult for households to access sufficient and nutritious food.
• SDG 1 (No Poverty): Soaring food prices erode the purchasing power of low-income households, pushing more people into poverty and deepening the hardship for those already impoverished.
• SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions): The data explicitly links conflict and political instability to the food price crisis. This demonstrates how the absence of peace and stable institutions directly fuels humanitarian challenges and reverses development gains.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The underlying macroeconomic issues and high input costs reflect a weakened economy, hindering the potential for sustainable economic growth and the creation of decent work.

Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

The article’s core focus is on the price and availability of staple foods like sorghum, millet, and cereals. The sharp increase in their prices directly threatens food security and access to nutrition for the population, which is the central theme of SDG 2.

SDG 1: No Poverty

The text highlights that cereal prices have more than quadrupled. Such extreme food price inflation drastically reduces the purchasing power of households, especially the poorest, pushing them further into poverty and making it impossible to afford basic necessities. This directly connects to the goal of eradicating poverty.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

The article explicitly identifies “heightened political instability since 2019” and “the conflict since April 2023” as primary drivers of the price increases. This demonstrates the direct link between the absence of peace and stable institutions (the focus of SDG 16) and its devastating socio-economic consequences, such as food insecurity.

Specific Targets Identified

1. SDG Target 2.c: Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility.

   The article is entirely focused on food price volatility. It reports on the monthly price changes for sorghum and millet and notes the “sustained increasing trend” and extreme price levels (“more than four times their pre-conflict levels”), which are clear examples of market dysfunction and the price volatility this target aims to limit.

2. SDG Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions.

   The quadrupling of staple food prices is a significant economic shock that directly impacts household poverty. While the article doesn’t measure poverty rates, it describes a primary condition (unaffordable food) that leads to an increase in poverty, making this target highly relevant.

3. SDG Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

   The article explicitly states that “the conflict since April 2023 exerted further upward pressure on prices.” This directly connects the presence of conflict and violence to the negative economic outcomes affecting the population’s ability to afford food, showing the relevance of reducing violence to achieve broader development goals.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

• Indicator 2.c.1: Indicator of food price anomalies.

  The article provides direct data for this indicator. It reports specific price changes: “sorghum declined in April 2025… by 3 percent, while the average price of millet increased by 4 percent.” More significantly, it quantifies a major price anomaly by stating that prices “were more than four times their pre-conflict levels in March 2023.” This data can be directly used to measure food price anomalies.

• Implied Indicators for Food Security and Poverty (Targets 2.1 and 1.2).

  While not explicitly stating official indicators like the “Prevalence of undernourishment” (2.1.1) or “Proportion of population living below the national poverty line” (1.2.1), the article’s data on extreme food price inflation serves as a strong proxy indicator. A fourfold increase in the price of staple foods implies a severe decline in food access (Target 2.1) and a sharp increase in the number of people unable to afford a minimum standard of living (Target 1.2).

• Implied Indicators for Peace and Stability (Target 16.1).

  The article’s reference to “the conflict since April 2023” and “heightened political instability since 2019” serves as a qualitative indicator of the existence and duration of conflict. This information, while not a statistical measure like “conflict-related deaths” (Indicator 16.1.2), confirms that the conditions addressed by Target 16.1 are present and are having a measurable negative impact on the economy.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

Source: fao.org