Grid operator forecasting 11% increase in electricity consumption by 2034 – CommonWealth Beacon

 

New England Energy Transition: A Report on Shifting Consumption and Sustainable Development Goal Alignment

Executive Summary

A recent analysis by ISO New England, the regional power grid operator, indicates a pivotal shift in energy consumption patterns. After a decade of decline, electricity demand is projected to rise, driven by the electrification of the transportation and heating sectors. This transition, while slightly slower than previously anticipated, is fundamental to achieving several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). This report details the revised forecasts, the drivers of change, and the critical role of renewable energy infrastructure in ensuring a sustainable energy future for the region.

Revised Forecasts and Progress Toward SDG 13: Climate Action

The long-term forecast for electricity consumption has been adjusted, reflecting a more moderate but steady pace of electrification. This adjustment directly impacts the timeline for regional climate action strategies.

• Previous Forecast (by 2033): A 17% increase in electricity consumption.
• Current Forecast (by 2034): An 11% increase in electricity consumption.

The primary reason for this revision is a noted slowdown in the adoption rates of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Despite this, the overall trend signifies a crucial move away from fossil fuels in heating and transport, a core tenet of SDG 13 (Climate Action). The projected “net” electricity use is expected to reach 130,665 gigawatt-hours by 2034, up from 116,813 in 2024.

Drivers of Demand: Electrification and SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

The increasing demand for electricity is overwhelmingly attributed to the electrification of key sectors, which is essential for creating sustainable communities.

1. Transportation Electrification: The adoption of electric vehicles is a primary driver of new electricity demand, contributing to the goals of SDG 11 by reducing urban air pollution and noise.
2. Heating Electrification: The transition to electric heat pumps reduces reliance on fossil fuels for residential and commercial heating, further supporting sustainable community infrastructure.

The impact on peak demand underscores the need for robust grid management to support these cleaner technologies:

• Winter Peak Demand: Forecasted to increase by 6,529 megawatts by 2034.
• Summer Peak Demand: Forecasted to increase by 956 megawatts by 2034.

The Central Role of SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

Meeting the rising demand sustainably requires a significant expansion of clean energy generation and continued efficiency efforts, directly aligning with the targets of SDG 7.

Renewable Energy Growth

The region is making significant strides in decentralized renewable energy production, which is crucial for a resilient and clean power system.

• Solar Power Growth: Overall solar production in New England is forecasted to grow by 88% over the next decade, reaching 14,343 megawatts.
• Massachusetts Leadership: The state is expected to lead this expansion, generating 6,952 megawatts from solar by 2034.

Energy Efficiency and Responsible Consumption (SDG 12)

The historical decrease in electricity consumption post-2005 was driven by successful energy efficiency programs and the growth of behind-the-meter solar installations. These efforts, which align with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), continue to be a vital component of the region’s energy strategy, even as they are now being outpaced by new demand from electrification.

Infrastructure and Supply: Building for a Sustainable Future (SDG 9)

ISO New England’s strategy to ensure grid reliability hinges on the development of new, large-scale renewable energy infrastructure, a key component of SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). The grid operator is not currently expressing alarm about meeting future demand, citing its reliance on major offshore wind projects currently under construction.

• Vineyard Wind (Massachusetts)
• Revolution Wind (Rhode Island)

These projects represent the critical infrastructure investments necessary to accommodate demand growth from electrification and ensure the region’s progress towards a decarbonized energy system consistent with global sustainability targets.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

• The article’s central theme is the shift in electricity consumption and production in New England, directly relating to energy. It discusses the increasing demand from electric vehicles and heat pumps and the growing supply from clean energy sources like solar and wind power.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

• The article focuses on the New England power grid, which is a critical piece of regional infrastructure. It details the challenges and plans for adapting this infrastructure to accommodate new technologies (EVs, heat pumps) and integrate renewable energy sources, highlighting innovation in the energy sector.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• The discussion on electrifying transportation (electric vehicles) and heating (heat pumps) within a major US region directly pertains to making communities more sustainable. The growth of “home-grown solar production” also points to sustainable community-level energy solutions.

SDG 13: Climate Action

• The transition to electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewable energy sources like solar and offshore wind are fundamental strategies for climate change mitigation. The article describes how the region is planning for this “electrification of the transportation and heating sectors,” which is a core climate action.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article directly supports this by forecasting that “solar power production in New England is forecasted to grow 88 percent over the next decade to 14,343 megawatts” and noting the grid operator is “counting on the construction of two offshore wind farms.”
   • Target 7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. The article mentions that a previous downturn in electricity consumption was due to residents “embracing energy efficiency measures” and that these measures are “continuing,” even as overall demand is set to rise.

2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

   • Target 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies. The entire article is about the New England grid operator’s plan to manage the infrastructure’s evolution to integrate clean technologies like solar and wind and support the adoption of EVs and heat pumps.

3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Target 11.2: Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all. The focus on the “electrification of the transportation” sector through the adoption of electric vehicles is a direct effort toward creating a more sustainable transport system.

4. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The ISO New England forecast is a clear example of a regional strategy that integrates climate change measures (planning for electrification and renewables) into its long-term operational and infrastructure planning.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For Target 7.2 (Increase renewable energy share):

   • Indicator: Renewable energy share in total final energy consumption. The article provides specific data points to measure this, including the forecast that “net” electricity use will hit “130,665 gigawatt hours by 2034” and that solar power will grow to “14,343 megawatts.” The output from the two offshore wind farms is another quantifiable input. These figures allow for the calculation of the renewable energy share.

2. For Target 7.3 (Improve energy efficiency):

   • Indicator: Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP. While not explicitly calculated, the article implies this by noting that “energy efficiency measures” are continuing to have an impact. The forecast that 2034 net electricity use (130,665 GWh) will still be below the 2005 peak (136,425 GWh) despite economic growth and massive electrification points to significant gains in energy efficiency.

3. For Target 11.2 (Sustainable transport systems):

   • Indicator: Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport, by sex, age and persons with disabilities. The article implies a related, more specific measure: the adoption rate of electric vehicles. The forecast was revised downward due to a “slowdown in electric vehicle and electric heat pump adoption rates,” showing this is a key metric being tracked.

4. For Target 9.4 (Upgrade infrastructure):

   • Indicator: CO2 emission per unit of value added. A direct measure of progress is the amount of new clean energy capacity added to the grid. The article provides a precise indicator: the forecasted growth of solar power by “88 percent over the next decade to 14,343 megawatts.”

4. SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy	7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.	Forecasted growth of solar power to 14,343 megawatts; addition of two offshore wind farms (Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind).
	7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.	The continuation of “energy efficiency measures” that previously caused a downturn in consumption from the grid after 2005.
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure	9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable…and with greater adoption of clean…technologies.	The forecasted 88% growth in solar power production over the next decade.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.2: Provide access to…sustainable transport systems for all.	The “electric vehicle… adoption rates” used in the forecast.
SDG 13: Climate Action	13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.	The existence of the ISO New England long-term forecast itself, which plans for the “electrification of the transportation and heating sectors.”

Source: commonwealthbeacon.org