Cognitive warfare: why wars without bombs or bullets are a legal blind spot – The Conversation

 

Report on Cognitive Warfare and its Implications for Sustainable Development

Executive Summary

Cognitive warfare, the strategic manipulation of an adversary’s cognition and behavior, represents a significant threat to global stability and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By targeting individuals, groups, and entire populations through disinformation and psychological operations, these hostile attacks undermine public health, peace, and the integrity of institutions. This report analyzes the mechanisms of cognitive warfare, its direct impact on key SDGs, and the urgent need for updated international legal frameworks to mitigate its effects.

Impact of Cognitive Warfare on Sustainable Development Goals

Cognitive warfare campaigns directly impede progress on several critical SDGs by creating instability, eroding trust, and causing tangible harm to populations.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

The integrity of public health systems and individual well-being is severely compromised by cognitive warfare tactics. These actions constitute a direct assault on the objectives of SDG 3.

• Health Disinformation: State-sponsored campaigns during the COVID-19 pandemic spread false information, leading to the rejection of protective measures and the use of harmful remedies, resulting in preventable deaths.
• Weaponization of Health Crises: False narratives, such as allegations of cholera outbreaks or the existence of bioweapons labs in Ukraine, are used to justify military action and sow public panic.
• Overburdening Health Systems: A hostile actor can orchestrate panic through false information about a new disease, causing a surge in hospital visits that overwhelms healthcare capacity and prevents patients with other critical needs from receiving care.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Cognitive warfare fundamentally attacks the foundations of peaceful societies and effective governance, directly contravening the aims of SDG 16.

• Erosion of Institutional Trust: Campaigns are designed to discredit governments, health officials, and international bodies, weakening the institutions necessary for a stable society.
• Incitement of Violence: By manipulating perceptions of reality and inflaming social divisions, cognitive operations can incite civil unrest and violence, destabilizing nations from within.
• Legal and Justice Gaps: Cognitive warfare operates in a legal vacuum, as traditional laws of war do not adequately define psychological manipulation as an act of aggression. This ambiguity undermines international justice and accountability.
• Undermining Humanitarian Law: The tactics can blur the line between permitted military deception and prohibited perfidy, such as exploiting a humanitarian vaccination program for military intelligence, thereby eroding trust in protected symbols and operations.

Mechanisms and Evolving Technologies

The effectiveness of cognitive warfare is amplified by modern digital technologies, which allow for precise and scalable manipulation of public perception.

Tactical Approaches

Operations are based on established principles of psychological manipulation, updated for the digital age.

1. Reflexive Control: A strategy involving the manipulation of an adversary’s perceptions to compel them to make decisions that benefit the aggressor, often without awareness of the manipulation.
2. Human Cognition Shaping: The core objective is to modify an individual’s or group’s perception of reality, turning the human mind into a contested domain.

Technological Enablers

Advanced technology allows for unprecedented reach and personalization of cognitive attacks.

• Microtargeting: The use of data from digital footprints to tailor disinformation that plays into an individual’s pre-existing biases.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI can generate vast amounts of targeted content, including synthetic media and AI-driven social media personas, to support a specific narrative covertly.
• Brain-Machine Interfaces: Emerging neurotechnology, such as DARPA’s N3 program, presents a future threat vector. These technologies could be compromised to directly read from and write to the brain, eroding the final barrier between the information domain and the human body and posing an extreme risk to SDG 3.

Addressing the Regulatory Vacuum and Building Resilience

The current international legal framework is ill-equipped to address the threats posed by cognitive warfare. A concerted global effort is required to adapt legal norms and build societal resilience, in line with SDG 16 and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Identified Legal Gaps

• Traditional laws of war are centered on physical force, leaving non-physical cognitive attacks largely unregulated.
• It remains unclear whether a severe cognitive attack constitutes an “armed attack” justifying self-defense under the UN Charter.
• While recognized by experts in documents like the Tallinn Manual 2.0, legal frameworks have not evolved to effectively counter these operations.

Recommendations for International Action

1. Update Legal Definitions: The international community must expand the definition of “threats” and “use of force” within the UN Charter to include severe, state-sponsored cognitive attacks that cause mass casualties or societal breakdown.
2. Recognize Psychological Harm: Legal and medical frameworks must formally recognize the severe mental health effects of targeted cognitive operations as a legitimate form of injury, aligning with the principles of SDG 3.
3. Leverage Human Rights Law: Protections for freedom of thought and opinion, and prohibitions against war propaganda, should be actively applied to shield civilians from cognitive warfare, reinforcing states’ obligations to protect these rights.
4. Foster Societal Resilience: In line with SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 17, nations must collaborate to promote digital and media literacy to equip citizens with the critical thinking skills needed to identify and resist manipulation.

1. SDGs Addressed in the Article

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

• The article extensively discusses how cognitive warfare, through the spread of health disinformation, directly impacts public health. It uses a hypothetical flu outbreak and the real-world COVID-19 pandemic as examples where false information led to overwhelmed hospitals, refusal of protective measures, use of harmful remedies, and ultimately, preventable deaths. This directly undermines the goal of ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

• The core theme of the article is cognitive warfare as a new form of conflict that operates in a “legal vacuum” or “legal grey zone.” It highlights the inadequacy of current international laws (like the UN Charter and laws of war) to address these non-physical attacks. The article calls for developing new regulations and strengthening legal frameworks to protect civilians, reduce violence (including indirect forms), and uphold the rule of law, which are central tenets of SDG 16.

2. Specific Targets Identified

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

1. Target 3.3: By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases and other communicable diseases.
   • The article describes how disinformation campaigns can exacerbate public health crises. It mentions false narratives about a “deadly new strain of flu” and allegations of authorities “purposefully inciting cholera outbreaks.” These actions directly hinder efforts to combat communicable diseases.
2. Target 3.4: By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being.
   • The article argues that “psychological harm is real harm” and questions why the “mental health effects of targeted cognitive operations” are not treated as legitimate injuries like PTSD. This aligns with the target’s goal of promoting mental health. It also notes that disinformation can lead to “injury and death by secondary effects,” contributing to premature mortality.
3. Target 3.8: Achieve universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all.
   • The scenario presented shows hospitals “filled with patients showing flu-like symptoms, preventing other patients from accessing care.” This illustrates a breakdown in access to essential healthcare services. Furthermore, the article mentions how during COVID, false information led people to refuse “protective measures” (like vaccines), undermining access to effective health interventions.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

1. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.
   • The article posits that cognitive warfare can “incite violence based on false information or cause injury and death by secondary effects.” It describes how a state actor could create “mass casualties” without a formal declaration of war, thereby challenging the traditional understanding of violence and highlighting a new form that needs to be reduced.
2. Target 16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all.
   • A central argument in the article is that cognitive warfare “exists in a legal vacuum.” It explicitly calls for adapting legal frameworks, referencing the UN Charter and the Tallinn Manual, to address this gap. The call to “rethink what ‘threats’ mean in modern conflict” is a direct appeal to strengthen the rule of law in the face of new challenges.
3. Target 16.10: Ensure public access to information and protect fundamental freedoms, in accordance with national legislation and international agreements.
   • Cognitive warfare is portrayed as a direct assault on this target. The use of “false information,” “disinformation campaigns,” and “microtargeting” pollutes the information environment. The article suggests using human rights frameworks that protect “freedom of thought, freedom of opinion and prohibitions against war propaganda” as a potential solution to shield civilians from these attacks.

3. Mentioned or Implied Indicators

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

• Implied Indicator for Target 3.3: Incidence of communicable diseases (e.g., flu, cholera) linked to disinformation campaigns. The article implies this by describing scenarios where false information about outbreaks is deliberately spread.
• Implied Indicator for Target 3.4: Mortality rate from secondary effects of cognitive attacks and prevalence of mental health conditions (e.g., PTSD) resulting from targeted psychological operations. The article mentions “casualties,” “deaths,” and “mental health effects.”
• Implied Indicator for Target 3.8: Rates of access to essential health services during a crisis. The article implies this by stating that disinformation can lead to hospitals being overwhelmed, “preventing other patients from accessing care.” Another implied indicator is the uptake rate of protective health measures (e.g., vaccinations), which the article notes can be suppressed by false information.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

• Implied Indicator for Target 16.1: Number of deaths and injuries attributable to violence or panic incited by disinformation. The article directly refers to the potential for “mass casualties” and “death by secondary effects.”
• Implied Indicator for Target 16.3: Existence of national and international legal frameworks specifically addressing cognitive warfare. The article’s main point is the current lack of such frameworks, making their development a key measure of progress.
• Implied Indicator for Target 16.10: Prevalence of disinformation and number of identified state-sponsored covert information operations. The article mentions “covert information operations” and coordinated campaigns by “Russian and Chinese state-linked actors,” suggesting that tracking such activities is a relevant measure.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators (Implied from Article)
SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being	3.3: End epidemics and combat communicable diseases. 3.4: Reduce premature mortality and promote mental health. 3.8: Achieve universal health coverage and access to quality care.	– Incidence of communicable diseases (flu, cholera) exacerbated by disinformation. – Mortality rate from secondary effects of cognitive attacks; prevalence of mental health conditions (PTSD) from psychological operations. – Rates of access to essential health services during crises; uptake rate of protective health measures (e.g., vaccines).
SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions	16.1: Reduce all forms of violence and related death rates. 16.3: Promote the rule of law and access to justice. 16.10: Ensure public access to information and protect fundamental freedoms.	– Number of deaths and injuries attributable to violence or panic incited by disinformation. – Existence of national and international legal frameworks addressing cognitive warfare. – Prevalence of disinformation; number of identified state-sponsored covert information operations.

Source: theconversation.com