Coordination level, spatio-temporal effects and driving mechanisms of Chinese agricultural water–land–economy composite system from the perspective of sustainable development – Nature

 

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the coupling mechanism of China’s agricultural “Water-Land-Economy” composite system (CS) from 2000 to 2020, with a significant emphasis on its alignment with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The investigation is critical for advancing sustainable agricultural practices, directly contributing to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). Using data from 31 Chinese provinces, the analysis reveals a positive but uneven trend in the coordinated development of the system. A distinct spatial clustering is identified, with eastern provinces demonstrating higher coordination, creating a development gradient from east to west. The primary drivers for this coordination are irrigation coverage and the degree of land-water synergy, highlighting the interconnectedness of resource management and economic resilience. Based on these findings, this report proposes targeted policy, technological, and governance recommendations to foster harmonized development, thereby accelerating progress toward China’s agricultural sustainability objectives and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

1. Introduction: Agricultural Sustainability and the SDG Framework

The pursuit of agricultural sustainability is a cornerstone of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) explicitly calls for ending hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture. This goal cannot be achieved in isolation; it is intrinsically linked to the management of natural resources and economic viability. The agricultural sector faces a complex interplay of challenges, including water scarcity (SDG 6), land degradation (SDG 15), and economic volatility (SDG 8). Therefore, a holistic approach is necessary.

This report examines the agricultural “Water-Land-Economy” composite system (CS) in China, a framework that integrates three critical pillars of sustainability:

• Water Resources Carrying Capacity: Essential for irrigation and crop production, directly impacting SDG 6 by promoting efficient water use.
• Land Ecological Security: The foundation of agricultural production, its protection and sustainable management are central to SDG 15.
• Agricultural Economic Resilience: The capacity of the agricultural economy to withstand shocks, ensuring stable livelihoods and contributing to SDG 8.

By analyzing the coordination, spatial effects, and driving mechanisms of this CS, this report aims to provide a scientific basis for policies that can simultaneously advance multiple SDGs and transition China’s agriculture toward a truly sustainable model.

2. Analytical Framework and Methodology

2.1. Study Area and Data

The study covers all 31 provinces of mainland China, divided into four economic regions (Eastern, Central, Western, and Northeastern). The analysis is based on panel data from 2000 to 2020, sourced from official national and provincial statistical yearbooks. This comprehensive scope allows for a robust analysis of regional disparities and their implications for equitable SDG achievement.

2.2. Indicator System for SDG Alignment

An evaluation indicator system was constructed to measure the performance of the Water-Land-Economy CS, with each subsystem aligned to key SDGs:

1. Agricultural Water Resources (SDG 6): Indicators include water-saving capacity (e.g., irrigation coverage), water demand, and supply guarantees, reflecting progress on sustainable water management.
2. Agricultural Land Ecology (SDG 15): Using a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, indicators assess the impact of human activities on land ecosystems, the state of arable land, and governmental responses to land degradation.
3. Agricultural Economic Resilience (SDG 2, SDG 8): Indicators measure the system’s resistance to shocks, its recovery speed, and its capacity for reconstruction, which are vital for ensuring food security and economic stability.

2.3. Analytical Methods

A multi-method approach was employed to analyze the data:

• Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) Model: To assess the level of synergistic development among the water, land, and economy subsystems.
• Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis: To identify spatial patterns of clustering and disparity in coordination levels across provinces, highlighting challenges for SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
• Spatial Gravity Model: To measure the strength of inter-provincial connections and the influence of development cores.
• Geodetector Model: To determine the primary driving factors behind the spatial differentiation of the system’s coordination.

3. Key Findings and Analysis

3.1. Coordination Level: A Positive but Uneven Trajectory

The overall coordination level of China’s agricultural Water-Land-Economy system has steadily improved from 2000 to 2020, moving from a state of “moderate disorder” to “mild disorder.” This indicates nascent progress toward integrating the economic and environmental dimensions of the SDGs. However, significant regional disparities persist.

• Regional Hierarchy: The coordination level follows a distinct spatial pattern: Eastern Region > Central Region > Western Region > Northeastern Region.
• Development Gaps: While the eastern and central regions have advanced to a “mild disorder” stage, the western and northeastern regions lag behind, transitioning from “severe” to “moderate” disorder. This gap poses a significant challenge to the universal achievement of the SDGs across China.

3.2. Spatial Effects: Clustering and Radiating Influence

The analysis reveals a clear spatial agglomeration pattern. The coordination level is not randomly distributed but clustered, with high-performing provinces located near each other.

• Core Cluster: The eastern region, particularly provinces like Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, forms a “high-high” agglomeration, acting as the core development hub.
• Radiating Effect: The influence of this eastern core diminishes with geographical distance, showing a decreasing radiation capacity toward the western regions. This highlights the need for stronger inter-regional partnerships and knowledge sharing, a key tenet of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

3.3. Driving Mechanisms for Coordinated Development

The spatial differentiation in coordination is driven by a combination of factors. The Geodetector analysis identified two primary drivers:

1. Irrigation Coverage (q-value > 0.85): A critical factor for ensuring water security (SDG 6) and boosting agricultural productivity (SDG 2).
2. Land-Water Coordination Degree (q-value > 0.85): The synergy between land use and water availability is fundamental to ecological health (SDG 15) and resource efficiency (SDG 12).

The interaction between these and other factors, such as economic development and human activity, enhances their collective impact, underscoring that an integrated, multi-faceted approach is required to improve system-wide coordination.

4. Policy Implications for Accelerating SDG Achievement

Based on the findings, this report proposes the following policy recommendations to enhance the coordinated development of the agricultural Water-Land-Economy system and accelerate progress on the SDGs:

• Policy Adjustment for Integrated Governance: Establish integrated “top-down” and “bottom-up” feedback mechanisms to ensure policy coherence across sectors (water, land, economy), aligning with the principles of SDG 17.
• Technological Support for Sustainable Production: Increase investment in agricultural science and technology, particularly in water-saving irrigation and land management techniques, to advance SDG 2.4 (ensure sustainable food production systems) and SDG 9 (build resilient infrastructure).
• Regional Governance to Reduce Inequalities: Create platforms for regional cooperation where developed eastern provinces can act as demonstration zones. Facilitate the flow of talent, capital, and technology to central and western regions to address the development gap, in line with SDG 10.
• Economic Guarantees for Resilient Livelihoods: Strengthen the agricultural value chain by supporting new operational entities, promoting agricultural insurance, and exploring the multifaceted values of agriculture (production, livelihood, ecology). This will enhance economic resilience (SDG 8) and promote responsible production patterns (SDG 12).

5. Conclusion

The analysis of China’s agricultural “Water-Land-Economy” composite system provides critical insights into the nation’s journey toward sustainable agriculture. The key conclusions are as follows:

1. The overall coordination of the system is improving, but progress is slow and has not yet reached a harmonized state, indicating that the integration of economic and environmental goals remains a work in progress.
2. Significant spatial disparities exist, with a clear east-west development gradient. This clustering effect presents both an opportunity for knowledge transfer from leading regions and a challenge for achieving equitable development nationwide.
3. The system’s development is primarily driven by the effective management and coordination of water and land resources, confirming that sustainable resource use is the bedrock of a resilient agricultural economy.

To fully realize the 2030 Agenda, China must intensify its efforts to address these regional imbalances and strengthen the synergy between water management, land protection, and economic development. Future research should focus on city- and county-level analyses and incorporate micro-level data to provide more granular policy recommendations that support a just and sustainable transformation of the agricultural sector, ensuring that no region is left behind.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The article is fundamentally centered on “advancing agricultural sustainable development in China.” It directly references SDG 2, stating it “specifically aims to advance AS by boosting productivity, conserving ecosystems, and fostering resilience.” The entire study revolves around ensuring the long-term viability of agriculture to maintain food production, which is the core of SDG 2.

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

  A primary component of the study is the “agricultural ‘Water-Land-Economy’ composite system.” The article extensively discusses issues of “agricultural water consumption,” “irrigation water utilization efficiency,” and “water resources carrying capacity.” It highlights the challenge of low irrigation efficiency in China compared to developed nations, directly linking to the sustainable management of water resources.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The “Economy” aspect of the composite system is a key focus, specifically “agricultural economic resilience” and “economic prosperity.” The article analyzes the agricultural economic system’s capacity to “resist, recover, and rebuild after external shocks” and aims to provide recommendations for economic guarantees to foster harmonized development, which aligns with promoting sustained and sustainable economic growth.

• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

  The study emphasizes “improving the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization” and optimizing the “water-land-economy” nexus. It discusses the need to reduce inputs like “pesticides and fertilizers” to ease environmental strain, which directly relates to ensuring sustainable consumption and production patterns through efficient resource management.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The “Land” component of the analysis focuses on “agricultural land ecological security” and “conserving ecosystems.” The article points out challenges such as “29.6 million hectares of poor-quality land” and the need for “protecting arable land quality.” This directly connects to protecting, restoring, and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article’s policy implications call for strengthening the means of implementation. It proposes establishing “platforms for regional cooperation and exchange as well as mechanisms for collaborative governance at the regional level” and creating a “feedback policy system that integrates both ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ approaches.” This reflects the spirit of partnership and multi-stakeholder collaboration essential for achieving sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
     
     Explanation: The article’s core objective is to achieve “sustainable agricultural progression” by harmonizing “productivity and economic prosperity with environmental preservation.” It explicitly discusses the need for “fostering resilience” in agriculture against shocks and improving “land ecological security,” which directly aligns with the components of this target.

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity.
     
     Explanation: The article highlights that China’s “irrigation water utilization efficiency in farmland was only 0.572,” which is significantly lower than in developed countries. It identifies improving “water use efficiency” as a key strategy for sustainable management, directly addressing this target.
   • Target 6.5: By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate.
     
     Explanation: The study’s framework of a “water-land-economy” composite system is an approach to integrated resource management. The policy recommendations for “regional governance” and “collaborative governance” support the implementation of such integrated management at different levels.

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation, including through a focus on high-value added and labour-intensive sectors.
     
     Explanation: The article recommends “technological support” and enhancing the “capacity for supplying agricultural science and technology” to improve the agricultural system’s performance and resilience, which is a form of technological upgrading for higher productivity.
   • Target 8.4: Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation.
     
     Explanation: The study’s focus on the “coupling mechanism of the agricultural ‘Water-Land-Economy’ composite system” is an effort to understand and improve the relationship between resource use (water, land) and economic output, aiming for “harmonized development of agricultural resources, environment, and economy.”

4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
     
     Explanation: The entire paper is an analysis of how to sustainably manage and efficiently use the natural resources of water and land for agriculture. It seeks to optimize “the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources through land and water conservation measures.”

5. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
     
     Explanation: The article explicitly mentions that China has “29.6 million hectares of poor-quality land” and emphasizes the importance of “agricultural land ecological security” and “protecting arable land quality,” which are central to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Implied Indicator: Resilience of the agricultural economic system. The article measures this through a composite index of “resistance, recovery, and reconstruction” and notes that disasters caused “direct economic losses of 238.65 billion yuan” in 2022, indicating a need to improve resilience.

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Indicator 6.4.1 (Change in water-use efficiency over time): The article explicitly states the “irrigation water utilization efficiency in farmland was only 0.572.” This is a direct measure of water-use efficiency.
   • Mentioned Indicator: Total agricultural water consumption. The article provides the figure of “378.13 billion cubic meters in 2022.”
   • Mentioned Indicator: Irrigation coverage. This is identified as a “primary driver” (X4) in the study’s analysis, with q-values above 0.85, showing its importance in measuring progress.

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Implied Indicator: Economic losses due to disasters as a proportion of GDP. The article mentions “disasters affected 12.07 million hectares of crops nationwide, causing direct economic losses of 238.65 billion yuan,” which can be used to assess economic vulnerability.

4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Implied Indicator: Intensity of fertilizer and agricultural film usage. The article lists “Fertilizer application intensity” and “Agricultural film usage intensity” as key driving factors of the system, implying their use as metrics for sustainable production.

5. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Implied Indicator (Proportion of degraded land): The article states that China has “29.6 million hectares of poor-quality land” out of a total of “127.86 million hectares” of arable land, which can be used to track land degradation.
   • Mentioned Indicator: Land-water coordination degree. This is identified as a “primary driving factor” (X13) and a key metric for assessing the sustainable management of land and water ecosystems together.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators (Mentioned or Implied in Article)
SDG 2: Zero Hunger	2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices.	Agricultural economic resilience (measured via resistance, recovery, and reconstruction indices). Economic losses from disasters affecting crops.
SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation	6.4: Substantially increase water-use efficiency. 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management.	Irrigation water utilization efficiency (explicitly stated as 0.572). Total agricultural water consumption (378.13 billion cubic meters). Irrigation coverage (identified as a key driver).
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth	8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through technological upgrading. 8.4: Improve global resource efficiency and decouple growth from environmental degradation.	Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) of the water-land-economy system. Direct economic losses from disasters.
SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production	12.2: Achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.	Fertilizer application intensity. Agricultural film usage intensity.
SDG 15: Life on Land	15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil.	Area of poor-quality/degraded land (29.6 million hectares). Land ecological security (measured via PSR framework). Land-water coordination degree.
SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals	(General) Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.	Existence of regional cooperation platforms and collaborative governance mechanisms (as proposed).

Source: nature.com