Nigel Farage on UK crime: how do his statements stack up? – The Guardian

Report on UK Crime Policy Discourse and its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: Policy Proposals and SDG 16

A recent policy initiative launched by Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, pledges to halve overall crime within a five-year period. This report analyzes the claims underpinning this campaign through the lens of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 16, which aims to promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels.

Analysis of Crime Data in the Context of SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions)

Claim vs. Official Data

The campaign’s central assertion is that crime has significantly increased since the 1990s, challenging the UK’s progress towards SDG 16.1 (Significantly reduce all forms of violence). An evaluation of this claim against official metrics reveals a more complex situation.

• Data Sources: The campaign questions the validity of the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), favoring police-recorded crime data. However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) considers the CSEW a more reliable indicator for long-term trends as it captures unreported incidents and is unaffected by changes in recording practices. Accurate data is fundamental for monitoring progress against all SDG targets.
• Long-Term Trends: ONS analysis indicates a general long-term decrease in crime against individuals and households since the mid-1990s, including violence and theft. This trend suggests historical progress towards achieving the targets of SDG 16.
• Short-Term Increases: Despite long-term decreases, recent data shows concerning short-term increases in specific categories, such as a 33% rise in fraud and a 50% increase in theft from the person in the last year. These figures highlight persistent challenges to ensuring public safety and security.

Public Safety, Gender Equality, and Sustainable Communities (SDG 5, SDG 11)

Perception of Safety

The campaign claims that UK citizens no longer feel safe, a sentiment that directly impacts the goals of SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), specifically Target 11.7, which seeks to provide universal access to safe and inclusive public spaces.

1. Public Concern: Polling data from YouGov indicates that crime is a significant issue for 22% of voters, though it ranks behind healthcare and immigration.
2. Gendered Safety Concerns: A Survation poll found that 57% of women feel unsafe walking on London’s streets. This highlights a critical challenge to achieving SDG 5 (Gender Equality), particularly Target 5.2, which calls for the elimination of all forms of violence against women and girls in public and private spheres.

Institutional Commitment to Crime Reduction (SDG 16)

Political Engagement

The assertion that other political parties have neglected the issue of crime is contradicted by their stated policy platforms, which align with the objectives of SDG 16.3 (Promote the rule of law) and SDG 16.a (Strengthen relevant national institutions).

• Government “Missions”: The current government has established a core mission to halve serious violent crime and improve confidence in the criminal justice system.
• Manifesto Pledges: Both the Labour and Conservative parties featured crime reduction pledges prominently in their 2024 election manifestos, indicating that the strengthening of justice institutions is a shared political priority.

Urban Safety in London: A Case Study (SDG 8, SDG 11, SDG 16)

Claims Regarding Lawlessness in the Capital

Specific claims about London were made to illustrate a breakdown in law and order, impacting community well-being (SDG 11) and economic stability (SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth).

1. Economic Impact: The departure of a high-profile billionaire was attributed to crime, but was in fact publicly linked to tax policy changes, not security concerns. The promotion of safe environments is crucial for sustainable tourism and economic growth as outlined in SDG 8.9.
2. Phone Theft Statistics: A claim that one in three Londoners has experienced phone theft originates from a small private survey. Official Metropolitan Police data indicates approximately 80,000 reported phone thefts in 2024, a figure that does not support the one-in-three ratio and underscores the importance of using verified data for policy-making (a core tenet of SDG monitoring).
3. Verified Crime Increase: An ONS statistic cited by the campaign, showing a 54% increase in shoplifting in London, is accurate. This specific increase points to tangible challenges affecting local businesses and community safety, directly relevant to the goals of sustainable and safe urban environments (SDG 11).

SDGs Addressed in the Article

1. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

   • The article’s central theme is crime, its perception, and political pledges to address it. This directly connects to SDG 16, which aims to promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions. The discussion revolves around reducing crime rates, the effectiveness of the criminal justice system, and public confidence in law enforcement. For instance, the article mentions a pledge to “halve overall crime” and a government mission to “halve serious violent crime and raise confidence in the police and criminal justice system.”

2. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • The article specifically discusses crime and safety within urban environments, particularly London. This relates to SDG 11, which includes making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. The feeling of safety in public spaces is a key element. The article highlights claims that “people are scared of going to the shops” and that London is perceived as “lawless,” directly touching upon the safety and inclusivity of urban areas.

3. SDG 5: Gender Equality

   • The article touches upon the gender-specific dimension of safety, which is a core component of SDG 5. This goal aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls, including ensuring their safety from violence. The article cites a specific data point that “57% of women felt it was unsafe to walk on the streets of London,” highlighting how the issue of crime and lack of safety disproportionately affects women’s sense of security in public spaces.

Specific Targets Identified

1. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

   • This target is directly addressed by the political pledges mentioned in the article. The Reform UK party’s promise to “halve overall crime” and the government’s mission to “halve serious violent crime” are explicit commitments to reducing violence and crime. The article also discusses trends in various crime types, such as “violence with or without injury,” “theft offences,” and “sexual assault,” all of which fall under the scope of this target.

2. Target 11.7: By 2030, provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces, in particular for women and children, older persons and persons with disabilities.

   • The article’s discussion of public perception of safety connects to this target. Claims that “people are scared of going to the shops” or “to let their kids out” and that women feel unsafe on city streets point to a lack of perceived safety in public spaces. The specific mention of London and the feeling of safety on its streets directly relates to providing safe and inclusive urban environments.

3. Target 5.2: Eliminate all forms of violence against all women and girls in the public and private spheres…

   • This target is relevant due to the specific data point cited about women’s safety. The statistic that “57% of women felt it was unsafe to walk on the streets of London” is a direct reflection of the fear of violence in public spaces, which this target aims to eliminate. It underscores the gendered nature of safety and crime perception.

4. Target 16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all.

   • This target is implied through the discussion on crime reporting and public confidence in the justice system. The claim that “most of us now don’t even bother to report crime” suggests a lack of faith in the system’s ability to provide justice. Furthermore, the government’s mission to “raise confidence in the police and criminal justice system” is a direct effort to strengthen the rule of law and ensure the justice system is perceived as effective and accessible.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

1. Indicator 16.1.3: Proportion of population subjected to physical, psychological or sexual violence in the previous 12 months.

   • The article implicitly refers to this indicator through its discussion of various crime statistics. The “crime survey for England and Wales” is mentioned as a tool that measures incidents, including those not reported to the police. Data points on the increase in “fraud,” “theft from the person,” and long-term trends in “sexual assault” and “violence with or without injury” are all measures related to this indicator.

2. Indicator 11.7.2 / 16.1.4: Proportion of persons who are victims of physical or sexual harassment, by sex, age, disability status and place of occurrence, in the previous 12 months / Proportion of population that feel safe walking alone around the area they live.

   • The article provides a direct data point relevant to these indicators. The statistic from a Survation poll that “57% of women felt it was unsafe to walk on the streets of London” is a direct measure of the population’s perception of safety, with a specific focus on gender (women) and place (London), aligning perfectly with the intent of these indicators.

3. Indicator 16.3.3: Proportion of the population who have experienced a dispute in the past two years and who accessed a formal or informal dispute resolution mechanism, by type of mechanism.

   • This indicator is implied in the discussion about crime reporting. The statement that “most of us now don’t even bother to report crime” suggests a low proportion of victims accessing the formal justice system (the police). The article also references “police-recorded crime” data, which directly measures the number of incidents that are formally reported, serving as a proxy for this indicator.

SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: theguardian.com