Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability – Nature

 

Report on Land Use and the Paris Agreement: A Sustainable Development Goals Perspective

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the critical role of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector in achieving the Paris Agreement goals, framing the issue within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A significant “blind spot” exists in global climate progress tracking, as the first Global Stocktake (GST) did not explicitly assess national LULUCF targets due to data comparability issues. This omission hinders progress on SDG 13 (Climate Action) and obscures vital connections to SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) reveals that land-based pledges constitute a quarter of global mitigation targets for 2030. However, these ambitions are overwhelmingly conditional on external financial and technical support, underscoring a critical dependency on international cooperation as outlined in SDG 17. The pledged enhancement of carbon sinks is insufficient to close the Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) gap required to meet the 1.5°C target, posing a significant risk to achieving SDG 13. This report provides concrete recommendations to integrate LULUCF data into future GSTs, thereby enhancing transparency, accountability, and policy coherence for sustainable development.

Introduction: The Critical Role of Land Use in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

The Paris Agreement and SDG 13 (Climate Action)

The first Global Stocktake (GST) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded that collective national commitments are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. This gap directly challenges the fulfillment of SDG 13 (Climate Action), which calls for urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. The GST process is designed to track progress and enhance ambition, making it a cornerstone of global climate governance.

The LULUCF Sector: A Nexus for SDG 13 and SDG 15

The LULUCF sector is fundamental to achieving climate neutrality and offers a significant portion of the required emissions reductions. Its role is twofold:

1. Reducing emissions from sources like deforestation, which is central to SDG 15.2 (promote sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation).
2. Enhancing carbon removals through sinks like afforestation and land restoration, contributing to both SDG 13 and SDG 15.3 (combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil).

Despite its potential, pledges to end deforestation are falling short, and a considerable “Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) gap” persists between current actions and the levels required in Paris-aligned scenarios.

The Data Comparability Challenge: A Barrier to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals)

A primary obstacle to tracking progress is the significant discrepancy between how LULUCF emissions and sinks are reported in national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories versus how they are represented in the global models used for Paris Agreement benchmarks. These inconsistencies, stemming from different definitions of “anthropogenic” influence, create confusion and undermine accountability. This data incomparability led to the exclusion of country-provided LULUCF targets from the first GST, creating a “blind spot” that impedes effective global partnerships and policy coherence, as envisioned in SDG 17.14 and SDG 17.16.

Analysis of National Climate Pledges and their Alignment with SDGs

Global and Regional Land-Based Mitigation Pledges (NDC 2020)

An analysis of the second round of NDCs (NDC 2020) reveals the following key findings regarding the LULUCF sector’s contribution to SDG 13:

• With full implementation of conditional pledges, the global LULUCF sector could become a net sink of -4.2 GtCO₂e/year by 2030.
• This represents a total mitigation commitment of -1.5 GtCO₂e/year relative to the 2011-2020 historical period.
• The majority of these commitments originate from developing countries (non-Annex I), particularly in Asia and Latin America.
• Africa’s ability to transition from a net source to a net sink is almost entirely dependent on receiving external support.

Disaggregating Pledges: Reduced Emissions vs. Enhanced Sinks

The mitigation pledges can be broken down into two main categories of action, both critical for SDG 15 (Life on Land):

• Reduced Emissions (-0.91 GtCO₂e/y): The largest share of the pledge comes from actions aimed at reducing emissions, such as avoided deforestation and forest degradation.
• Additional Land Removals (-0.55 GtCO₂e/y): Approximately one-third of the conditional pledge is expected from enhancing carbon sinks through activities like afforestation, reforestation, and land restoration.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Gap and its Implications for SDG 13

The pledged additional land removals of -0.55 GtCO₂e/year by 2030 fall short of the minimum required CDR of -0.7 GtCO₂e/year to align with pathways for limiting warming to well-below 2°C. This shortfall highlights a critical implementation gap in land-based mitigation, increasing the risk of overshooting the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets and failing to meet the ambitions of SDG 13. Without a significant increase in ambition and implementation, achieving the necessary long-term carbon removal of -4 GtCO₂e/year by 2050 appears unlikely.

The Critical Role of International Support (SDG 17)

The analysis underscores a profound reliance on international cooperation. The most ambitious LULUCF pledges are conditional, meaning their implementation depends on external support. This highlights several targets within SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):

• SDG 17.3: Mobilizing financial resources for developing countries is essential to unlock the mitigation potential of the LULUCF sector.
• SDG 17.9: Enhanced international support for capacity-building is needed for countries to implement and report on complex land-based projects.
• Without this support, unconditional (domestic) pledges show minimal additional action, indicating that international partnerships are the primary driver for raising ambition in this sector.

Discrepancies, Challenges, and the Path Forward

The “Blind Spot”: Quantifying the Discrepancy in LULUCF Reporting

The conceptual differences in reporting frameworks lead to a stark contrast in 2030 projections. While country NDCs project the LULUCF sector to be a net sink (between -2.9 and -4.2 GtCO₂e/y), global models used for benchmarking see it as a net source (approx. +2.1 GtCO₂e/y). This results in a discrepancy of up to -6.3 GtCO₂e/y, a significant figure that confuses policymakers and complicates efforts to track progress toward SDG 13.

Evolving Baselines and Ambition

Between the NDC 2015 and NDC 2020 submissions, an increase in reported historical LULUCF sinks was observed, primarily due to more complete reporting and methodological updates in developing countries. While this reflects improved capacity—a positive development for SDG 17.18 (enhance capacity-building support for data and statistics)—these shifting baselines complicate the assessment of true mitigation ambition and widen the discrepancy with static model estimates.

Competing Land Demands: A Threat to Multiple SDGs

The success of LULUCF pledges is threatened by a “global land squeeze.” The finite availability of land creates competition between climate mitigation and other development priorities, posing risks to several SDGs:

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Expansion of agro-commodities competes with forest conservation and restoration.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): Development from mining and oil operations often leads to deforestation.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities): Urban expansion reduces available land for natural ecosystems.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): Growing global demand for bio-commodities drives land-use change.

Achieving SDG 13 and SDG 15 requires integrated policies that manage these trade-offs and promote policy coherence for sustainable development (SDG 17.14).

Recommendations for Integrating Land Use into Global Climate Governance

Enhancing Transparency for the Global Stocktake (GST)

To eliminate the LULUCF “blind spot” and ensure accountability, future GSTs must incorporate country-provided land use data. The following steps are recommended:

1. Visualize the Discrepancy: GST reports should include graphical representations that place country-reported LULUCF data alongside model estimates to clearly illustrate the existing gap and track its evolution over time.
2. Incorporate LULUCF in Economy-Wide Assessments: Present two parallel scenarios for total global emissions—one using model-based LULUCF estimates and another using country-reported data. This will provide a comprehensive view of global progress.
3. Translate Model Data: To ensure comparability, global model estimates should be translated into the GHG inventory framework used by countries, as recommended by the IPCC. This will allow for a more direct assessment of national actions against Paris-aligned pathways.
4. Disaggregate Commitments: Assessments should be disaggregated regionally and by mitigation type (i.e., reduced emissions vs. additional sinks) to identify where progress is being made and where support is most needed.

Strengthening National Capacities and Data Reporting (SDG 17.18)

To support this enhanced transparency, countries should be encouraged and supported to improve their reporting. This includes providing more detailed data and maps on managed land areas, disaggregating commitments into reduced emissions and additional sinks, and clarifying assumptions within their NDC scenarios. This directly supports SDG 17.18 by increasing the availability of high-quality, timely, and reliable data.

Fostering Coherent Policies for Sustainable Development (SDG 17.14)

Ultimately, addressing the LULUCF challenge requires moving beyond isolated climate policy. Policymakers, modellers, and national experts must collaborate to build a shared understanding of the data and its implications. This fosters the policy coherence needed to manage the trade-offs between SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 15 (Life on Land), and other critical development goals, ensuring that the path to a net-zero future is both effective and sustainable.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article primarily addresses issues related to climate change mitigation, land use, and international cooperation, which directly connect to the following Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  This is the central SDG discussed. The article is framed around the Paris Agreement, its goals to limit global temperature rise, and the mechanisms for tracking progress, such as the Global Stocktake (GST) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It analyzes “land carbon fluxes,” “greenhouse gas inventories,” and “mitigation targets,” which are all core components of taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The article’s focus on the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector directly links to SDG 15. It discusses key activities for protecting and restoring terrestrial ecosystems, such as efforts to reduce “deforestation,” enhance “forest sinks,” and implement “af/reforestation” and “forest/land restoration.” The analysis of land’s role as a carbon sink and the challenges in realizing its mitigation potential are central to the sustainable management of forests and combating land degradation.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article highlights the critical role of international cooperation in achieving climate targets. It repeatedly mentions that mitigation pledges from developing (Non-Annex I) countries are often “conditional to external support,” requiring “financial, technical or capacity assistance.” The discussion on data comparability issues between national inventories and global models, and the call for harmonized approaches, underscores the need for a global partnership to share knowledge, expertise, and technology to achieve sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s discussion, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
     
     Explanation: The article’s entire analysis is based on countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are the primary instruments for integrating climate action into national plans. The text notes that “ca.80 percent of all countries including LULUCF measures in their NDCs,” demonstrating this integration in practice.
   • Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the UNFCCC to mobilize resources to address the needs of developing countries.
     
     Explanation: The article emphasizes that a significant portion of land mitigation pledges is “conditional to external support (i.e. requiring financial, technical or capacity assistance).” The finding that most of the global mitigation pledge of “-1.5 GtCO2e/yr” relies on this support directly relates to the need for mobilizing financial resources for developing countries.

2. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
     
     Explanation: The article directly addresses this target by analyzing pledges related to “avoided deforestation or degradation,” “af/reforestation,” and “enhanced forest sinks.” It mentions specific global commitments like the “Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests” which aim to “end net deforestation by 2030.”
   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil… and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
     
     Explanation: The article discusses mitigation activities that include “forest/land restoration,” which is a key component of combating land degradation and restoring ecosystem health to enhance carbon sequestration.
   • Target 15.b: Mobilize and significantly increase financial resources from all sources to conserve and sustainably use forests.
     
     Explanation: The article points out that activities like “af/reforestation, forest/land restoration from developing countries… are highly dependent on external support.” This highlights the need for financial mobilization to achieve sustainable forest management and conservation goals.

3. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Target 17.3: Mobilize additional financial resources for developing countries from multiple sources.
     
     Explanation: The article states that conditional land pledges from developing countries are crucial for global targets but depend on “external support (financial, technical, capacity building).” This directly points to the need for mobilizing financial resources beyond domestic capacity.
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology and financial resources.
     
     Explanation: The core problem identified in the article is the “data comparability issues” and “discrepancy” between national GHG inventories and global land models. The call for “Rosetta-stone’ approaches that reconcile datasets” and for future Global Stocktakes to include “appropriate comparisons” is a call to enhance the global partnership between scientific communities, modellers, and national policymakers.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article provides several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

1. Indicators for SDG 13 & 15

   • Net emissions from the LULUCF sector (GtCO₂e/yr): This is the primary indicator used throughout the article. Specific values are given for historical periods (“-2.7 ± 0.7 GtCO₂e/y during the historical period 2011–2020”), future projections (“-4.2 ± 1.4 GtCO₂e/y” under conditional support), and mitigation commitments (“an additional net sink of −1.5 ± 1.1 GtCO₂e/y”).
   • Disaggregated mitigation pledges (GtCO₂e/yr): The article breaks down the total mitigation pledge into “reduced emissions (e.g. avoided deforestation or degradation) (−0.91 GtCO₂e/y)” and “additional land removals” (“-0.55 GtCO₂e/yr”). This provides a more detailed measure of progress on different aspects of Target 15.2.
   • Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Gap: The article measures the gap between pledged removals (“-0.55 GtCO₂e/y”) and the amount needed to align with climate pathways (“minimum of −0.7 GtCO₂e/y for 2030”). This serves as a critical indicator of ambition and implementation.
   • Proportion of LULUCF mitigation in economy-wide pledges: The article states that “Land retains a quarter of the global mitigation pledges in 2030,” indicating the sector’s importance in national climate strategies (Indicator for Target 13.2).

2. Indicators for SDG 17

   • Dependence on external support for mitigation: The article clearly indicates that the bulk of the land mitigation pledge (“-1.5 GtCO₂e/yr”) is conditional on external support, while unconditional domestic action is low (“−0.2 ± 0.3 GtCO₂e/yr”). This qualitative and quantitative distinction serves as an indicator of the need for international financial and technical partnerships.
   • Discrepancy in LULUCF emission estimates: The article quantifies the gap between country-reported data and model estimates (“between −6.3 and −5.1 GtCO₂e/y in 2030”). This discrepancy is an indicator of the lack of methodological harmonization and the need for enhanced technical cooperation and knowledge sharing.
   • Number of countries with quantitative LULUCF data in NDCs: The study notes an increase in countries providing data (“twenty new countries have added LULUCF commitments” between NDC 2015 and 2020), which can be seen as an indicator of improving institutional capacity for climate reporting (Indicator for Target 13.3).

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators Identified in the Article
SDG 13: Climate Action	13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. 13.a: Implement commitments to mobilize financial resources for developing countries.	Total mitigation commitments from LULUCF in NDCs (e.g., -1.5 GtCO₂e/yr). Proportion of mitigation pledges conditional on external support. Number of countries including LULUCF measures in their NDCs (approx. 80%).
SDG 15: Life on Land	15.2: Promote sustainable forest management, halt deforestation, and increase reforestation. 15.3: Combat desertification and restore degraded land. 15.b: Mobilize financial resources for sustainable forest use.	Pledged reductions in emissions from deforestation/degradation (-0.91 GtCO₂e/y). Pledged additional removals from afforestation/restoration (-0.55 GtCO₂e/y). The Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) gap between pledges and climate pathway needs. Increase in managed forest area (e.g., extra 300 million hectares reported).
SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals	17.3: Mobilize additional financial resources for developing countries. 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development through knowledge and technology sharing.	Magnitude of discrepancy between country-reported and model-based LULUCF data (-5.1 to -6.3 GtCO₂e/y). Proportion of LULUCF pledges from developing countries that are conditional on external financial and technical support. Progress on data reconciliation and harmonization efforts between scientific and national inventory communities.

Source: nature.com