Does people oriented urbanization catch up with land and population urbanization – Nature

 

Report on China’s Urbanization Trajectory and its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 11

A Quantitative Analysis from 2005 to 2020

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the dynamics of urbanization in the People’s Republic of China from 2005 to 2020, with a significant focus on its alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 11 (SDG 11), which aims to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. While China has experienced rapid growth in population and land urbanization, this study finds a notable lag in people-oriented dimensions, including urban social services, environmental quality, and socioeconomic equity. An examination of 16 people-oriented indicators across economic, social, environmental, and equity dimensions reveals that while all indicators showed an upward trend, economic and social services have not kept pace with physical expansion. In contrast, environmental indicators have shown relative improvement. A key finding is the U-shaped pattern of an “evenness index,” which measures the coordinated development among these dimensions. This index indicates that after an initial period of imbalanced growth, a trend towards more coordinated, people-oriented urbanization began after the implementation of China’s New-Type Urbanization Plan in 2014. To fully achieve the targets of SDG 11, future policies must prioritize investment in social service systems and implement place-based coordination strategies.

1.0 Introduction: Urbanization and the Sustainable Development Agenda

1.1 Context of China’s Urbanization

Since 1978, China has undergone one of the most rapid urbanization processes in human history. This expansion has brought significant socioeconomic benefits but has also created challenges that directly impact the sustainability of its cities. The growth in urban population and land area has often outpaced the development of essential public services, leading to issues such as:

• Inadequate provision of social security, education, and healthcare for new urban residents.
• Widening urban-rural disparities.
• Environmental pollution and ecological degradation from unplanned urban sprawl.
• Insufficient urban governance capacity, leading to traffic congestion and housing shortages.

These challenges highlight a disconnect between traditional, land-focused urbanization and the principles of sustainable, people-oriented development.

1.2 The Imperative of SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

The challenges faced by China are central to the mission of SDG 11. This goal emphasizes that urbanization must extend beyond physical growth to encompass the comprehensive enhancement of social welfare, equity, and environmental resilience. In 2014, the Chinese government’s National New-Type Urbanization Plan (2014–2020) explicitly shifted focus towards a people-oriented model, aligning national policy with the global sustainability agenda. This report assesses the progress of this transition by examining the relationship between physical urbanization (land and population) and people-oriented urbanization, providing critical insights for achieving SDG 11 targets in China and other developing nations.

1.3 Research Objectives

This report systematically evaluates whether people-oriented urbanization has been catching up with the rapid pace of population and land urbanization in China. It addresses this by:

1. Analyzing 16 people-oriented indicators across economic, social, environmental, and equity dimensions from 2005 to 2020.
2. Assessing the relationships between these indicators and population/land urbanization at national, regional, and city-size scales.
3. Quantifying the degree of coordinated development among these dimensions over time, particularly in relation to the 2014 policy shift.
4. Providing policy recommendations aimed at accelerating progress towards SDG 11.

2.0 Analysis of Multidimensional Urbanization (2005-2020)

2.1 Overall Trends in Urbanization Indicators

Between 2005 and 2020, all urbanization indicators in China demonstrated a substantial increasing trend. Land urbanization (186.5% growth) outpaced population urbanization (154.6% growth). People-oriented indicators also grew, but at vastly different rates.

• Social and Economic Indicators: Showed the greatest growth, with mean base-period growth rates of 1341.0% and 446.4% respectively. However, analysis reveals they still lag behind the pace of land and population expansion.
• Environmental Indicators: Exhibited modest growth (mean of 133.3%) but have largely caught up with or, in some cases, led land and population urbanization, reflecting a policy focus on environmental governance.
• Equity Indicators: Displayed the slowest growth (mean of 113.5%), with indicators like the urban-rural income ratio and Gini coefficient showing only marginal improvement, highlighting persistent challenges in achieving inclusive growth as per SDG 11.

2.2 Regional and City-Scale Disparities

Significant geographical disparities were observed, posing a challenge to the uniform achievement of SDG 11 across the nation.

• Regional Gradient: Most economic and social indicators followed an east-west gradient, with higher values and growth rates concentrated in the more developed eastern region. Conversely, social equity challenges (higher Gini coefficient and urban-rural income ratio) were most pronounced in the western region.
• City Size: Large cities demonstrated advantages across most economic and social indicators. However, small cities exhibited higher levels of social inequality, including higher unemployment rates and income disparities.
• Urban Agglomerations: These areas showed higher mean values for most indicators compared to non-agglomeration areas but also faced greater environmental pressures and housing affordability issues. Social equity was generally lower in these highly urbanized zones.

2.3 Relationship with Population and Land Urbanization

The analysis confirms that people-oriented urbanization has not progressed in lockstep with population and land growth. Most economic and social service indicators, such as GDP per capita, education expenditure, and physicians per 1000 people, lagged significantly behind both population and land urbanization. This indicates that the provision of services and economic opportunities has not met the demands of a rapidly expanding urban population and footprint. In contrast, environmental indicators (e.g., nonhazardous waste treatment) and certain equity indicators (e.g., urban-rural income ratio) showed a leading or synchronous relationship, suggesting that policy interventions in these areas have been more effective in keeping pace with urban expansion.

3.0 Coordination of Urbanization and Alignment with SDG 11

3.1 Measuring Coordinated Development: The Evenness Index

To assess the balance between different facets of urbanization, an evenness index was calculated. A higher index signifies more coordinated development, which is a core tenet of sustainable urbanization under SDG 11.

• The national evenness index followed a U-shaped trend, declining from 2005 to a low point around 2011-2013 before steadily increasing through 2020.
• This pattern suggests that the initial phase of rapid urbanization exacerbated imbalances, but subsequent policy shifts have begun to foster a more coordinated and sustainable development model.
• Regionally, northeastern China and non-urban agglomeration areas showed higher levels of evenness, likely due to lower development pressures. Large cities and eastern regions, despite leading in economic metrics, exhibited lower coordination, highlighting the challenge of managing complex systems under rapid growth.

3.2 Impact of the 2014 New-Type Urbanization Plan

The inflection point in the evenness index around 2013-2014 strongly correlates with the introduction of the National New-Type Urbanization Plan. An interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis confirmed a statistically significant increase in the evenness index after the policy’s implementation. This provides robust evidence that the policy shift towards a people-oriented, high-quality urbanization model has been effective in reversing the trend of imbalanced development and steering China towards a path more aligned with SDG 11.

4.0 Discussion and Policy Recommendations for Achieving SDG 11

4.1 Key Findings in the Context of Sustainable Development

The study reveals a critical lesson for sustainable urban development: rapid physical expansion does not automatically translate into improved quality of life or greater equity. The lag in social and economic services behind land and population growth is a structural challenge rooted in development models that prioritize land-based revenue. However, the positive turnaround in coordinated development after 2014 demonstrates that targeted national policies emphasizing sustainability and human well-being can effectively reshape urbanization trajectories. The findings underscore the need for continued and deepened efforts to ensure that urban growth is inclusive and sustainable, directly addressing the core mission of SDG 11.

4.2 Policy Recommendations

To accelerate progress towards making cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable, the following policy actions are recommended:

1. Implement Differentiated Regional Coordination Strategies: To address the lag in social services, policies must be tailored to regional needs. This includes reforming land revenue allocation to secure funding for social infrastructure, directly supporting SDG 11.1 (access to adequate, safe, and affordable housing and basic services).
2. Optimize Public Service Provision with a Focus on Equity: To ensure development is inclusive, policy should focus on equalizing access to public services. This involves promoting concepts like the “15-minute community-life circle” and expanding green public spaces, which directly advances SDG 11.7 (universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces).
3. Maintain and Strengthen Environmental Governance: The relative success of environmental indicators shows the effectiveness of prioritization. This “environmental governance first” approach should be continued to reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, in line with SDG 11.6.
4. Advance Institutional Innovation and Policy Coordination: To foster long-term sustainable urbanization, it is crucial to enhance inter-agency collaboration and establish systematic monitoring mechanisms. This will support inclusive and sustainable urban planning and management as called for by SDG 11.3.

5.0 Conclusion

China’s urbanization journey offers valuable insights into the complexities of achieving SDG 11. While the nation has made progress, a significant gap remains between physical expansion and people-oriented development. The period from 2005 to 2020 was characterized by an initial phase of imbalanced growth followed by a promising shift towards more coordinated, sustainable urbanization, catalyzed by the 2014 New-Type Urbanization Plan. The findings confirm that people-oriented urbanization is beginning to catch up, but sustained and targeted policy interventions are essential. By prioritizing investment in social services, promoting regional equity, and strengthening environmental governance, China can continue its transition towards building truly inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities for all.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The primary Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) addressed in the article is:

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities – Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.

Explanation:

The article explicitly and repeatedly identifies SDG 11 as the central framework for its analysis. The abstract states that dimensions like “urban social services, environmental services, and socioeconomic equity… are crucial for achieving SDG11.” The introduction further reinforces this by noting that China’s “New-Type Urbanization Plan is also aligned with SDG 11.” The entire study revolves around “people-oriented urbanization,” which is the core principle of SDG 11, aiming to improve quality of life, ensure equitable resource allocation, and make cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. The research question itself—whether people-oriented urbanization is catching up with population and land urbanization—is a direct inquiry into the sustainability and inclusivity of urban development, which is the essence of SDG 11.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s discussion of specific urban challenges and policy responses, the following targets under SDG 11 are clearly identifiable:

1. Target 11.1: By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums.
   
   Explanation: The article directly addresses this target in the discussion section, stating, “under SDG 11.1—universal access to adequate, safe, and affordable housing—land urbanization in China outpaces population growth, while social-service expansion remains insufficient.” It analyzes housing affordability through the “house price-to-income ratio (HPIR)” indicator and discusses challenges like high housing costs. It also highlights the provision of “basic public services to new urban residents” as a key challenge of rapid urbanization.
2. Target 11.3: By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries.
   
   Explanation: This target is central to the article’s thesis. The study’s focus on the “evenness index” is a method to quantify the coordination and sustainability of urbanization. The discussion section explicitly references “SDG 11.3—’enhancing inclusive and sustainable urbanization'” and links the observed improvement in coordination to the “2014 National New-type Urbanization Plan.” The analysis of “people-oriented urbanization” versus “land-driven growth” is a direct examination of the need for inclusive and sustainable urban planning.
3. Target 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management.
   
   Explanation: The article explicitly connects its findings to this target, noting, “Regarding SDG 11.6—reducing the negative environmental impact of cities—our data show that policies prioritizing environmental indicators have yielded notable results.” The analysis includes specific environmental indicators such as “PM2.5 concentration,” “sulfur dioxide emissions from industry (SDE),” and the “nonhazardous treatment rate of domestic waste (NHTR),” which directly measure progress on air quality and waste management.
4. Target 11.7: By 2030, provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces, particularly for women and children, older persons and persons with disabilities.
   
   Explanation: The discussion section directly references “SDG 11.7—’providing safe, inclusive and accessible green public spaces'”. The article uses “green space per capita (GSP)” as a key social indicator to measure the availability of public green spaces and discusses its lag behind population growth. It also mentions the “15-min community-life circle concept” as a policy approach to improve access to community facilities.
5. Target 11.a: Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning.
   
   Explanation: The article’s focus on “urban‒rural disparities” and its use of the “urban‒rural income ratio (URIR)” as a social equity indicator directly relate to this target. The discussion on the need for “coordinated urban‒rural development” and the analysis of regional differences (e.g., eastern vs. western China, urban agglomerations vs. non-agglomerations) highlight the importance of integrated regional planning to bridge development gaps.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article is built around a comprehensive set of 16 “people-oriented urbanization indicators” used to measure progress. These are explicitly listed and analyzed throughout the text.

Explanation:

The study’s methodology is founded on quantifying urbanization through a detailed indicator system. The “Methods” section and Figure 1 clearly define these indicators, which are then used to analyze the state of urbanization in China. They are categorized into four dimensions:

• Economic Indicators:
  • Average deposit (AD)
  • Average wage of employees (AW)
  • Consumption expenditure per capita (CEP)
  • Fixed asset investment per capita (FAI)
  • GDP per capita (GDPP)
  • House price-to-income ratio (HPIR)
• Social Indicators:
  • Education expenditure per capita (EEP)
  • Green space per capita (GSP)
  • Number of physicians per 1000 people (PP)
  • R&D expenditure per capita (R&DEP)
  • Unemployment rate (UPR)
• Environmental Indicators:
  • Nonhazardous treatment rate of domestic waste (NHTR)
  • PM2.5 concentration (PM2.5)
  • Sulfur dioxide emissions from industry (SDE)
• Social Equity Indicators:
  • Gini coefficient (Gini)
  • Urban-rural income ratio (URIR)

These indicators serve as direct or proxy measures for the SDG targets. For instance, HPIR measures housing affordability (Target 11.1), GSP measures access to green space (Target 11.7), and PM2.5 and NHTR measure environmental impact (Target 11.6).

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators Identified in the Article
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.1: Ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services.	House price-to-income ratio (HPIR) Education expenditure per capita (EEP) Physicians per 1000 people (PP) Fixed asset investment per capita (FAI)
	11.3: Enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning.	Population urbanization (proportion of urban residents) Land urbanization (total urban built-up area) Evenness index (measuring coordinated development) Gini coefficient (Gini) Urban-rural income ratio (URIR)
	11.6: Reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including air quality and waste management.	PM2.5 concentration (PM2.5) Sulfur dioxide emissions from industry (SDE) Nonhazardous treatment rate of domestic waste (NHTR)
	11.7: Provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces.	Green space per capita (GSP)
	11.a: Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas.	Urban-rural income ratio (URIR) Analysis of urban agglomerations vs. non-agglomeration areas

Source: nature.com