Lower Birth Rates Could Cause Enrollment Issues for Schools – EdSurge

 

Report on Declining K-12 Enrollment and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A significant decline in K-12 public school enrollment is emerging in the United States, posing a substantial threat to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This trend, driven by a confluence of demographic, economic, and social factors, directly challenges the foundations of SDG 4 (Quality Education) and creates cascading negative impacts on SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). The potential for widespread school closures necessitates proactive policy and strategic planning to mitigate adverse consequences for students, communities, and the national economy.

Analysis of Factors Undermining SDG 4 (Quality Education)

Demographic and Enrollment Shifts

Several intersecting trends are contributing to a reduction in student populations, directly affecting the operational viability of public schools and the delivery of quality education.

• Declining Birth Rate: A sustained dip in the national birth rate since the 2008 recession has resulted in a smaller cohort of school-age children, reducing the primary source of student enrollment.
• Post-Pandemic Educational Diversification: A significant number of families, particularly those with younger children, transitioned to private schooling or homeschooling during the COVID-19 pandemic and have not returned to the public system.
• Chronic Absenteeism and Immigration Policy: Rising rates of chronic absenteeism, coupled with immigration enforcement actions that deter school attendance, further decrease the number of students actively participating in public education. This directly impacts school funding models tied to attendance.

Economic and Funding Pressures

Financial instability is compounding the challenges posed by declining enrollment, threatening the resources necessary to maintain educational standards.

• Cessation of Federal Relief Funds: The expiration of pandemic-era ESSER funds has forced districts to cut staff positions and educational technology spending, creating immediate budgetary shortfalls.
• Reduced State and Local Budgets: Broader cuts to education budgets at state and city levels, alongside potential restructuring of federal education departments, place additional financial strain on school systems.

Projected Impacts on Sustainable Development

Threats to SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities)

The convergence of these factors is projected to have severe consequences for educational equity and access across the country.

1. Significant Enrollment Reduction: The National Center for Education Statistics projects a further decline of 2.7 million students by the 2031-2032 school year.
2. Exacerbated Regional Inequality: States such as California, New York, and New Mexico are forecast to lose over 10 percent of their student enrollment, which could deepen existing educational and economic inequalities (SDG 10).
3. Degradation of Educational Quality: Budget cuts driven by lower enrollment are leading to teacher and staff layoffs. This paradoxically risks creating larger class sizes for remaining students and diminishes the quality of instruction and support services (SDG 4).
4. Permanent Loss of Access: The ultimate consequence is the closure of entire schools, as seen in Denver, which permanently removes a fundamental local institution and access to education for the community’s children.

Challenges to SDG 8 (Decent Work) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Communities)

The decline of public schools extends beyond the classroom, threatening the economic and social stability of communities.

• Economic Disruption: Public schools are critical economic engines, functioning as major local employers and developers of the future workforce. School closures eliminate jobs and disrupt the talent pipeline, undermining local economic prosperity (SDG 8).
• Erosion of Community Cohesion: Schools serve as vital community hubs where families connect and build social relationships. The loss of a school can weaken the social fabric, diminishing the sense of community and challenging the goal of creating inclusive and resilient communities (SDG 11).
• Cycle of Economic Decline: The closure of a community’s schools can deter new families from moving to the area and reinforce a cycle of economic and population decline, making the community less sustainable.

Strategic Recommendations for Sustainable Futures

Proactive Policy and Institutional Planning

Addressing this multifaceted challenge requires forward-thinking strategies from both educational leaders and policymakers to safeguard progress toward the SDGs.

1. Advance Universal Pre-Kindergarten: Expanding publicly funded pre-K is a key policy recommendation. This initiative directly supports Target 4.2 of the SDGs (access to quality early childhood development) while also creating “enrollment stickiness” that can help stabilize district funding and student populations.
2. Implement Strategic Financial Management: School districts must proactively manage budgets in anticipation of demographic changes. Rather than making reactive cuts, institutions should strategically re-evaluate staffing and resource allocation to adapt to a smaller student base without compromising educational quality.
3. Strengthen Community-Centered Education: Lawmakers and community leaders must recognize public schools as critical infrastructure for achieving economic and social sustainability (SDG 8, SDG 11). Planning efforts should focus on how to maintain the viability of these institutions to ensure they continue to thrive as centers of learning and community life.

Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 4: Quality Education

• The article’s central theme is the challenge to the K-12 education sector, directly aligning with SDG 4. It discusses declining enrollment, budget cuts, and school closures, which threaten the provision of “free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education.” The potential for “larger class sizes” and “teacher layoffs” further impacts educational quality.

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• The article connects the health of the education system to the broader economy. It states, “K-12 is one of the most important parts of our economy.” School closures lead to job losses for “teachers and staff” and can create a “cycle that reinforces that economic decline” in communities, which relates to achieving productive employment and sustainable economic growth.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

• The issues discussed can worsen inequalities. The article notes that “murky immigration policy” and “immigration raids” prevent some students from attending school, hindering their inclusion. The shift to private or homeschooling may not be an option for all families, potentially widening the gap in educational opportunities based on economic status.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• The article emphasizes the role of schools as vital community institutions. It describes schools as “a wonderful place where community members can connect, build relationships, and it creates a sense of community.” The closure of schools is presented as a loss that can “weaken connections within that community” and negatively impact the social fabric and economic stability of a neighborhood, making it less sustainable.

What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 4: Quality Education

1. Target 4.1: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education. The article highlights threats to this target, such as rising “chronic absenteeism,” students leaving the public system, and school closures that disrupt access to education.
2. Target 4.2: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys have access to quality early childhood development, care and pre-primary education. This target is identified as a potential solution, with the article mentioning “expanding publicly funded pre-K” as a policy to support the “financial viability of school districts” and student learning.
3. Target 4.a: Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all. The article discusses the opposite trend, with budget cuts and declining enrollment leading to the closure of entire schools (“Denver Public School System, for example, will close seven schools”), thus reducing the availability of education facilities.
4. Target 4.c: By 2030, substantially increase the supply of qualified teachers. The article points to a direct challenge to this target, noting that budget shortfalls due to the “expiration of ESSER” funds and declining enrollment are prompting schools to “cut staff jobs” and implement “teacher layoffs.”

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

1. Target 8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men. The article connects to this target by describing how school systems “function as an employer to teachers and staff” and how budget cuts are leading to “staff and teacher layoffs,” directly impacting local employment.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

1. Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all. The article implies a threat to this target by mentioning that “immigration raids across the country also has prompted some students to stay home or find alternative education pathways,” effectively excluding them from the public education system.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

1. Target 11.3: By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for… sustainable human settlement planning. The article shows how school closures undermine this target, stating that “Good public schools are investments in economic prosperity” and their loss can “create a kind of cycle that reinforces that economic decline,” making communities less sustainable.
2. Target 11.7: By 2030, provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces. This target is relevant as the article describes schools as central community hubs where “community members can connect.” When a school is “closed down, that can affect things,” representing a loss of a key public and community space.

Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

SDG 4: Quality Education

1. K-12 enrollment rate: The article explicitly states that the National Center for Education Statistics “estimates that K-12 enrollment will drop by another 2.7 million students by the 2031-2032 school year.” This is a direct indicator for measuring access to and participation in education (Target 4.1).
2. Chronic absenteeism rate: The text mentions “a rise in chronic absenteeism, where enrolled students don’t attend class.” This metric can be used to measure the engagement and effective participation of students in the education system (Target 4.1).
3. Number of school closures: The article provides a specific example: “The Denver Public School System, for example, will close seven schools.” This number serves as a direct indicator of the availability of educational facilities (Target 4.a).
4. Number of teacher layoffs: The article notes that the loss of funds has prompted some schools to “cut staff jobs” and that “teacher layoffs are coming.” This figure is a clear indicator for measuring the supply of qualified teachers (Target 4.c).

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

1. Number of education sector jobs lost: The mention of “staff and teacher layoffs” implies that tracking the number of jobs lost in the education sector is a relevant indicator for measuring local employment and economic stability (Target 8.5).

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

1. Rate of school closures in communities: The article discusses the trend of schools shutting down, which can be quantified to measure the loss of essential public services and community hubs (Targets 11.3 and 11.7).

Cross-Cutting Indicators

1. Public expenditure on education: The article repeatedly mentions funding issues, such as the “loss in federal funds,” the “expiration of ESSER,” and cities “cutting education budgets.” Tracking public expenditure on education as a percentage of total government spending is a key indicator.
2. National birth rate: The article identifies the “declining birth rate” as a root cause of the enrollment cliff. This demographic data is a crucial long-term indicator for planning educational resources.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators from the Article

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 4: Quality Education	4.1 Ensure all children complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education.	K-12 enrollment figures (e.g., “drop by another 2.7 million students”); Chronic absenteeism rates (“a rise in chronic absenteeism”).
SDG 4: Quality Education	4.a Build and upgrade education facilities.	Number of school closures (e.g., “Denver… will close seven schools”).
SDG 4: Quality Education	4.c Substantially increase the supply of qualified teachers.	Number of teacher and staff layoffs (“teacher layoffs are coming”).
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth	8.5 Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all.	Number of jobs lost in the education sector due to budget cuts and school closures (“staff and teacher layoffs”).
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities	10.2 Empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all.	Number of students not attending school due to external factors like “immigration raids.”
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.7 Provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible… public spaces.	Number of schools closed, representing a loss of a community hub (“loss of a school in a community can actually weaken connections”).

Source: edsurge.com