AD1026: For many Zimbabweans, emigration holds promise of economic opportunity – Afrobarometer

Global Migration and Sustainable Development

International Frameworks for Migration Governance

International migration, a phenomenon involving an estimated 281 million people or 3.6% of the global population, is fundamentally driven by the pursuit of improved livelihoods and safety. This aligns directly with the objectives of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). In response, the United Nations adopted the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration in 2018. This compact represents a critical international effort to enhance migration governance and advance SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) by establishing a cooperative framework to address the challenges and opportunities of migration.

In the African context, more liberalised migration regimes are seen as a catalyst for achieving regional development objectives. Such policies could promote:

• Transnational integration and economic ties, supporting SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
• New avenues for innovation, trade, investment, and employment, contributing to SDG 8.

Migration Dynamics in Zimbabwe

Historical and Contemporary Context

Historically, Zimbabwe has been a key country for migration in Southern Africa. However, since its independence in 1980, the nation has experienced significantly higher population outflows than inflows. Despite data challenges, Zimbabwe is recognized as having one of the highest per-capita outmigration rates globally. The country currently hosts 429,000 migrants and over 20,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Collaborative efforts between the government and the UNHCR to integrate refugees, particularly at the Tongogara Refugee Camp, demonstrate a commitment to SDG 10 and SDG 16.

Legal and Policy Frameworks

Zimbabwe has established several legal frameworks to govern migration. In November 2024, the country’s accession to the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Their Families marked a significant step towards upholding the principles of SDG 8 and SDG 10 for migrant populations. This complements existing national legislation, including the Immigration Act, the Citizenship Act, and the Refugees Act.

Emigration from Zimbabwe: Challenges to Sustainable Development

Socio-Economic Impacts of Labour Outmigration

While labour outmigration can offer benefits such as poverty reduction through remittances (SDG 1) and the transfer of skills (SDG 4), Zimbabwe faces substantial challenges that undermine its sustainable development progress. These include:

1. Brain Drain: The large-scale departure of highly skilled professionals, particularly in health and education, directly impedes progress on SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 4 (Quality Education).
2. Lack of Decent Work: Many Zimbabwean emigrants are employed in “dirty, dangerous, and degrading” jobs, characterized by exploitation, an absence of social protection, and a lack of employment contracts. This situation is in direct opposition to the principles of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
3. Irregular Migration and Human Trafficking: The prevalence of irregular migration increases the vulnerability of citizens to exploitation and human trafficking, a severe violation of human rights and a challenge to SDG 16.

Drivers of Emigration

The net migration rate of -6 per 1,000 population in 2023 indicates a persistent trend of emigration. The primary drivers are rooted in domestic challenges related to the SDGs:

• Economic Factors: The search for livelihood opportunities is the most prominent reason for leaving, highlighting significant domestic shortfalls in achieving SDG 1 and SDG 8.
• Political Factors: Periods of political instability and human-rights violations have historically intensified emigration, reflecting challenges in maintaining SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

The main destination countries for the Zimbabwean diaspora include South Africa, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States.

Public Attitudes and Future Migration Intentions

Afrobarometer Survey Findings

Recent survey data reveals complex public attitudes towards migration. While a majority of Zimbabweans favour the free movement of people across Southern Africa for work and trade, which supports regional integration under SDG 17, a majority also express a desire for fewer immigrants. This sentiment presents a potential barrier to fostering inclusive societies as envisioned by SDG 10. However, an overwhelming majority profess no reservations about living next to foreign workers or refugees, and nearly half perceive migrant workers as making a positive economic contribution, aligning with the spirit of SDG 8.

Emigration Aspirations and the “Brain Drain” Risk

A significant finding is that approximately three-fifths of Zimbabweans have considered emigrating, primarily to seek better economic opportunities. This underscores the pressing need to improve domestic conditions in line with SDG 1 and SDG 8. The fact that young and highly educated citizens are the most likely to contemplate moving abroad signals a continuing and severe risk of “brain drain,” which threatens the country’s long-term capacity to achieve its sustainable development targets, particularly SDG 4 and SDG 8.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on migration in Zimbabwe touches upon several interconnected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis reveals connections to the following goals:

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The primary driver for emigration from Zimbabwe is the search for “livelihood opportunities” and employment. The article details the poor working conditions many migrants face, including “dirty, dangerous, and degrading” jobs, exploitative wages, and a lack of social protection, which directly relates to the goal of promoting decent work for all. The issue of “brain drain,” the outflow of skilled professionals, also impacts Zimbabwe’s economic growth potential.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities: This goal is central to the article, particularly its focus on migration. The text discusses facilitating “safe, orderly and regular migration” through international agreements like the Global Compact. It also highlights inequalities within and between countries, as Zimbabweans leave due to economic and political factors to seek better lives, often facing exploitation abroad. The role of remittances in poverty reduction is also a key aspect of reducing inequality.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: The article links migration to political instability, noting that emigration “intensified during times of political violence and human-rights violations.” The sharp increase in asylum applications in 2008 is a clear example. Furthermore, it discusses the legal frameworks governing migration, such as Zimbabwe’s accession to the “International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Their Families,” and the growing risk of human trafficking, all of which fall under the purview of this goal.
• SDG 1: No Poverty: The search for better economic opportunities is a core theme, driven by the desire to escape poverty. The article explicitly states that one of the benefits of labour outmigration is “poverty reduction through remittances,” directly linking migration to efforts to eradicate poverty.
• SDG 4: Quality Education: Education is mentioned as a significant factor in migration. The article states that one of the reasons for moving abroad is for “education or training.” It also highlights a critical challenge: the “brain drain,” where “highly educated citizens are especially likely to contemplate moving abroad,” which affects the country’s human capital and development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies.
   • Explanation: The article directly references the “Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration” and Zimbabwe’s accession to the “International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Their Families.” It also discusses challenges like “irregular migration” and the difficulty of moving across borders, making this target highly relevant.
2. Target 8.8: Protect labour rights and promote safe and secure working environments for all workers, including migrant workers… and those in precarious employment.
   • Explanation: The article describes the harsh realities for many Zimbabwean migrants who take on “‘three D’ jobs… dirty, dangerous, and degrading.” It explicitly mentions the “absence of employment contracts and social protection, exploitative wages and long working hours,” which are the exact issues this target aims to address.
3. Target 16.2: End abuse, exploitation, trafficking and all forms of violence against… children.
   • Explanation: Although the target mentions children specifically, its principles apply to all vulnerable people. The article explicitly states that “the risk of human trafficking has been growing” for Zimbabwean migrants, directly connecting to this target’s goal of ending exploitation and trafficking.
4. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.
   • Explanation: The article establishes a direct link between migration and violence, stating that emigration “intensified during times of political violence and human-rights violations” and that the number of asylum applications “jumped fivefold” during the contested 2008 elections. This shows that reducing violence is critical to managing migration pressures.
5. Target 8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men…
   • Explanation: The primary motivation for three-fifths of Zimbabweans considering emigration is the search for “better economic opportunities.” The lack of sufficient and decent employment at home, as implied by the economic freefall and mass outmigration, makes this target relevant to the root causes of the migration discussed.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article contains several quantitative and qualitative data points that can serve as indicators for measuring progress.

• Indicator for Target 10.7 (Well-managed migration policies):
  • Specific Data: The article mentions Zimbabwe’s accession to the “International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Their Families” in November 2024.
  • Explanation: This action serves as a direct indicator of progress, aligning with Indicator 10.7.2 (Number of countries with migration policies that facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration). The country’s net migration rate of “-6 people per 1,000 population” is also a key statistical indicator of migration flows.
• Indicator for Target 16.1 (Reduction of violence):
  • Specific Data: “In 2008, a year of highly contested elections, the number of Zimbabweans applying for asylum jumped fivefold to more than 100,000.”
  • Explanation: The number of asylum applications is a powerful proxy indicator for the level of violence, persecution, and human rights violations in a country, as it measures how many people are fleeing in fear for their safety.
• Indicator for Target 8.8 (Safe working environments):
  • Specific Data: The qualitative description of jobs being “dirty, dangerous, and degrading,” with an “absence of employment contracts and social protection, exploitative wages and long working hours.”
  • Explanation: While not a number, this descriptive evidence is a crucial qualitative indicator of the lack of compliance with labour rights and safe working conditions for migrant workers, which aligns with Indicator 8.8.2 (Level of national compliance with labour rights).
• Indicator for Migration Drivers (Related to SDG 8 & 10):
  • Specific Data: “About three-fifths of Zimbabweans have considered emigrating themselves, mostly in search of better economic opportunities.”
  • Explanation: This survey finding is a direct indicator of migration potential and the perceived lack of economic opportunity within the country. It measures the “push factors” driving emigration. The fact that “Young and highly educated citizens are especially likely to contemplate moving abroad” is an indicator of the “brain drain” phenomenon.
• Indicator for Refugee and Migrant Population:
  • Specific Data: Zimbabwe is “home to 429,000 migrants” and hosts “more than 20,000 refugees and asylum seekers.”
  • Explanation: These figures provide a baseline for understanding the scale of both inward and forced migration, which is essential for policy-making and resource allocation related to SDGs 10 and 16.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: afrobarometer.org