Trump’s Immigration Reset Is Lifting Wages and Forcing Real Economic Reform – The Heritage Foundation

Report on Immigration Policy and its Intersection with Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: Policy Debates and Institutional Integrity (SDG 16)

Recent discourse from political figures has brought attention to the motivations behind immigration policies, particularly as they relate to the principles of SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. The integrity and accountability of institutions are questioned when demographic considerations for redistricting purposes are cited as a reason for absorbing migrant populations. This raises concerns about whether population counts, including noncitizens, are being leveraged for political representation, echoing historical debates over population apportionment.

Furthermore, calls from municipal leaders for federal immigration authorities to cease enforcement activities within their jurisdictions highlight a tension concerning the rule of law, a key target of SDG 16. Such actions are perceived by some as a threat to population stability, with data suggesting that stricter immigration enforcement has previously correlated with population declines in certain states.

Economic Impacts on Labor Markets and Households

Employment Trends and Decent Work (SDG 8 & SDG 10)

An analysis of recent employment data reveals significant shifts in the labor market, impacting progress toward SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth and SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities. The data indicates a reversal of previous trends, where employment growth among foreign-born workers outpaced that of native-born workers.

Under a previous administration, annual job growth for foreign-born workers was nearly 1.2 million higher than for native-born Americans at the start of the year.
By mid-year, this situation had reversed, with native-born Americans experiencing annual employment gains of almost 1.4 million more jobs than their foreign-born counterparts.
The annual increase in employment among native-born Americans reached over 1.7 million, while the number of employed foreign-born workers rose by less than 400,000 over the same period.

These trends suggest that shifts in immigration and economic policy can have a direct effect on reducing employment disparities within a country, a central goal of SDG 10, and promoting decent work for all segments of the population as outlined in SDG 8.

Real Wages, Poverty, and Economic Well-being (SDG 1 & SDG 8)

The economic well-being of households, a critical component of SDG 1: No Poverty, has been significantly affected by changes in real wages. While nominal weekly paychecks rose nearly 20 percent under the prior administration, high inflation resulted in a net loss of approximately 4 percent in purchasing power. This economic pressure contributed to increased household debt, with credit card debt reaching $1.2 trillion.

Recent policy changes have reportedly begun to reverse this trend, contributing to the objectives of SDG 8, which advocates for sustained and inclusive economic growth.

In the first half of the current year, the average American’s real weekly paycheck has reportedly risen by about 1 percent.
The real median weekly paycheck is now reported to be higher than at any point during the previous four-year administration.
This growth in real wages is particularly significant for blue-collar workers, offering relief from prior inflationary pressures, although substantial household debt remains a challenge to achieving widespread economic security.

Future Outlook: Innovation and Sustainable Industry (SDG 9 & SDG 2)

Agricultural Adaptation and Automation

Concerns have been raised that stricter immigration enforcement could disrupt the agricultural labor supply. However, historical precedents suggest that industries adapt to labor market shifts through innovation. This aligns with the aims of SDG 2: Zero Hunger, which includes promoting sustainable agricultural practices. It is projected that the agricultural sector will adapt through increased automation and productivity enhancements, ensuring food production systems remain resilient.

Investment in Technology and Productivity (SDG 9)

A reduction in the availability of low-skill labor is anticipated to catalyze investment and innovation, directly supporting the objectives of SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure. Industries that have historically relied on such labor have seen underinvestment in technology. A shift in labor dynamics is expected to reverse this trend, leading to a more sustainable and technologically advanced industrial base.

A changed labor market is expected to reduce the supply of what is termed “artificially cheap labor.”
This shift will incentivize industries to increase investment in capital, particularly in automation and artificial intelligence (AI).
The long-term outcome is projected to be increased efficiency, enhanced productivity, and ultimately, lower prices for consumers, fostering a sustainable economic model in line with SDG 9.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

The article extensively discusses labor market dynamics, including employment rates for native-born versus foreign-born workers, job growth, and wage levels. It addresses the economic conditions of workers by analyzing real weekly paychecks and the impact of inflation, which are central themes of SDG 8.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

This goal is relevant due to the article’s focus on the economic and political disparities between different population groups, specifically native-born citizens and immigrants (legal and illegal). It examines how immigration policies affect employment opportunities and political representation, directly relating to the goal of reducing inequalities within a country.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

The article touches on the functioning of political institutions. It cites a representative’s comments about needing more people for “redistricting purposes” and a mayor’s call to defy federal immigration law. These points relate to the integrity, accountability, and representativeness of governmental institutions, which are key components of SDG 16.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

The article connects immigration policy to industrial development. It argues that a reduction in “artificially cheap labor” will spur investment in technology, “automation and productivity enhancements,” and “AI,” leading to increased efficiency. This directly relates to the goal of fostering innovation and upgrading industrial capabilities.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

Target 8.5: “By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all… and equal pay for work of equal value.” The article’s detailed comparison of employment growth and wage trends between native-born and foreign-born workers directly relates to this target. It discusses the struggle for “decent work” through its analysis of real wages adjusted for inflation.
Target 8.2: “Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through… technological upgrading and innovation…” The article predicts that changes in labor availability will force industries like agriculture to “adapt as necessary… with automation and productivity enhancements,” which aligns with this target.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

Target 10.7: “Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies.” The article critiques what it calls “open border policies” and discusses the consequences, such as the “humanitarian crisis with 11,000 migrants crowding under a bridge,” directly addressing the management and outcomes of migration policies.
Target 10.2: “By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of… origin…” The article discusses the political inclusion of migrants for “redistricting purposes” and the economic inclusion (or lack thereof) of different groups in the job market, making this target highly relevant.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Target 16.7: “Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels.” The discussion about Rep. Yvette Clarke’s desire for more people in her district “just for redistricting purposes” directly questions the basis of representative decision-making and whether it is truly responsive to the existing electorate.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

Target 9.b: “Support domestic technology development, research and innovation…” The article’s assertion that a shift in labor policy will reverse a “lack of investment” and lead to innovation, “especially in the age of AI,” supports this target’s focus on fostering domestic technological advancement.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Indicators for SDG 8

Employment Growth Rate: The article provides specific figures, stating, “The annual increase in employment among native-born Americans shot up to over 1.7 million last month,” while “the number of foreign-born workers with jobs has risen less than 400,000.” These figures serve as direct indicators for employment trends.
Real Wage Growth: The article uses changes in real wages as a key indicator of economic well-being. It states that under one administration, “real weekly paychecks bought about 4 percent less,” while under another, “the average American’s real weekly paycheck has risen about 1 percent.” The “real median weekly paycheck” is also mentioned as an indicator.
Household Debt: The mention that “households are still in $1.2 trillion of credit card debt” is an implied indicator of economic strain on workers, relevant to the “decent work” aspect of SDG 8.

Indicators for SDG 10

Number of Migrants in Irregular Situations: The reference to “11,000 migrants crowding under a bridge” serves as an indicator of migration that is not orderly or safe, relevant to Target 10.7.
Net Migration Rates: The article implies this indicator by stating, “California grew by a bit because there were more foreigners—legal and illegal—moving in than Californians moving out,” highlighting the components of population change.

Indicators for SDG 9

Investment in Technology and Innovation: While no specific figures are given, the article implies that the level of “investment” in industries and the adoption of “automation and AI” are key indicators for measuring progress towards industrial efficiency and innovation.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article. In this table, list the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), their corresponding targets, and the specific indicators
identified in the article.

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth	8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all. 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through technological upgrading and innovation.	– Annual employment growth rate (differentiated by native-born vs. foreign-born workers). – Growth rate of real weekly/median paychecks. – Level of household credit card debt.
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities	10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration. 10.2: Empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all.	– Number of migrants in precarious situations (e.g., “11,000 migrants under a bridge”). – Population change due to net migration. – Policies on including non-citizens in population counts for political representation.
SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions	16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, and representative decision-making.	– Basis for population counts for legislative redistricting (implied).
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure	9.b: Support domestic technology development, research and innovation.	– Level of investment in industries. – Rate of adoption of automation and AI in agriculture and other industries (implied).

Source: heritage.org