Unprecedented large-scale aquifer recovery through human intervention – Nature

 

Report on Large-Scale Aquifer Recovery in the North China Plain: A Case Study in Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

This report details a significant reversal of long-term groundwater depletion in the North China Plain (NCP), one of the world’s most stressed aquifers. Analysis of data from over 2,000 monitoring wells between 2005 and 2024 reveals that a combination of large-scale water diversion, stringent pumping regulations, and managed aquifer recharge has led to an average groundwater level rise of approximately 0.7 meters per year since 2020. These integrated water management strategies have not only restored aquifer levels to pre-2005 conditions but also provide a powerful framework for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings demonstrate tangible progress towards SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 15 (Life on Land), offering a replicable model for other water-scarce regions globally.

Introduction: Groundwater Depletion as a Barrier to Sustainable Development

Groundwater depletion is a critical global threat that directly undermines the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In intensively cultivated drylands like the North China Plain—a region producing 10% of China’s grain—over-extraction of groundwater has historically jeopardized several SDGs:

• SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): Decades of decline threatened the sustainability of water resources for a population of ~130 million.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): The viability of irrigated agriculture and, consequently, regional and national food security was at risk.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Water scarcity and associated land subsidence posed significant risks to urban infrastructure and populations.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): The desiccation of rivers, wetlands, and the disappearance of springs signaled severe degradation of freshwater ecosystems.

The successful reversal of this trend in the NCP, an area of approximately 130,000 km², presents a compelling case study of how targeted, large-scale interventions can restore water systems and advance sustainable development.

Key Findings: A Region-Wide Reversal of Groundwater Decline

Evidence of Aquifer Recovery (2020-2024)

A comprehensive analysis of groundwater levels reveals a distinct turning point around 2020, shifting from decades of decline to rapid recovery.

• Rate of Recovery: Since 2020, groundwater levels have risen at an average rate of ~0.7 m/year.
• Milestone Achieved: By 2024, average groundwater levels in unconfined aquifers had recovered to levels not seen since 2005. Confined aquifer levels recovered to 2013 levels.
• Widespread Impact: The recovery is not localized but observed across the NCP in both unconfined and confined aquifers, and in urban and rural areas. Prior to 2018, over 60% of wells showed significant deepening trends; after 2018, over 50% of wells exhibited significant shallowing trends.

Drivers of Recovery: An Integrated Management Approach

The recovery is not attributed to climatic shifts but to a sustained, multi-faceted human intervention strategy. This approach directly aligns with the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) as promoted by SDG Target 6.5.

1. Reduced Groundwater Abstraction: Policy interventions led to a reduction in annual groundwater abstraction of approximately 12 km³ between 2005 and 2023. Pumping from deep, confined aquifers saw the steepest decline (~85%).
2. Large-Scale Water Diversion: The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project has become a primary water source, supplying over 5.3 km³ in 2023 and replacing groundwater for municipal and industrial use.
3. Increased Environmental Allocation: Since 2021, over 7 km³ of water annually has been allocated to environmental flows, becoming the second-largest water use sector. This directly supports SDG Target 6.6 (Protect and restore water-related ecosystems).

Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 6: Ensuring Water Availability and Sustainable Management

The NCP’s success is a direct illustration of achieving key targets under SDG 6.

• Target 6.4 (Water-Use Efficiency and Scarcity): The reliance on groundwater dropped from ~67% of the total water supply in 2005 to ~35% in 2023. This was coupled with a significant increase in water productivity, decoupling economic growth from water consumption and directly addressing water stress.
• Target 6.5 (Integrated Water Resources Management): The coordinated use of diverted water, surface water, reclaimed water, and managed groundwater demonstrates a highly effective IWRM strategy at a basin scale.
• Target 6.6 (Ecosystem Restoration): The allocation of diverted water to replenish rivers and lakes has rejuvenated riparian ecosystems and led to the re-emergence of springs, reversing decades of environmental degradation.

SDG 2 & SDG 12: Sustainable Food Production and Consumption

The interventions successfully balanced water restoration with food security, a critical nexus for sustainable development.

• Target 2.4 (Sustainable Food Production): Agricultural water use was reduced from 70% to 50% of the total, achieved by adjusting cropping patterns (e.g., reducing water-intensive winter wheat) and improving irrigation efficiency. Despite these changes, regional food production increased from ~28 million tons in 2005 to ~42 million tons in 2023, demonstrating a move towards more resilient and productive agricultural systems.
• Target 12.2 (Sustainable Management of Natural Resources): The dramatic increase in water productivity—with economic output per m³ of water use rising three- to four-fold since 2005—shows a clear move towards responsible consumption and production patterns.

SDG 11 & SDG 15: Resilient Communities and Healthy Ecosystems

The benefits of aquifer recovery extend to urban resilience and terrestrial ecosystems.

• Target 11.5 (Resilient Cities): The recovery of groundwater levels has helped stabilize and, in some areas, reverse land subsidence, a major threat to urban centers like Beijing and Tianjin. Securing a diversified water supply enhances the resilience of these cities to drought and climate change.
• Target 15.1 (Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystems): The restoration of environmental flows in previously dry rivers and the recharge of aquifers have begun to restore vital functions of inland freshwater ecosystems, contributing directly to life on land.

Conclusion: A Blueprint for Global Groundwater Governance

The case of the North China Plain demonstrates that rapid, large-scale groundwater recovery is achievable. It proves that severe water depletion is not an irreversible fate. The success was built on a foundation of integrated strategies that align with the core principles of the Sustainable Development Goals. Key takeaways for global application include:

1. Political Will and Policy Integration: Success hinges on strong governance, including stringent regulations on water abstraction and the enforcement of water quotas.
2. Diversified Water Portfolios: Reducing reliance on a single source through inter-basin transfers, water recycling, and managed aquifer recharge is critical for building resilience.
3. Demand-Side Management: Supply-side solutions must be paired with measures to improve efficiency and reduce demand, particularly in agriculture, without compromising food security.
4. Investing in Natural Infrastructure: Allocating water to restore environmental flows is not a cost but an investment in the long-term health and resilience of the entire water system.

The NCP’s journey offers a valuable and optimistic blueprint for other regions grappling with groundwater depletion, proving that concerted human intervention can steer a sustainable course and achieve multiple development goals simultaneously.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on groundwater depletion and recovery in the North China Plain (NCP) addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis indicates strong connections to the following goals:

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: This is the most central SDG discussed. The entire article revolves around the management of freshwater resources, specifically groundwater. It covers issues of water scarcity, over-extraction, water-use efficiency, integrated water resources management (IWRM), and the restoration of water-related ecosystems (aquifers, rivers, lakes).
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article explicitly links groundwater use to agriculture and food security. It notes that the NCP is an “intensively cultivated” region responsible for “10% of China’s grain production” and that irrigation accounts for the majority of water usage. The shift in agricultural practices to conserve water while ensuring food production is a key theme.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article highlights the impact of groundwater depletion on urban areas, including “land subsidence” and the strain on “municipal and industrial purposes.” It also describes how policy interventions, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project, are critical for the water security and resilience of cities like Beijing.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The discussion on improving water-use efficiency, reducing water demand in agriculture and industry, and increasing the use of reclaimed water directly relates to the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article addresses the ecological consequences of groundwater depletion, such as the “desiccation of rivers and wetlands.” It also details successful efforts to “restore environmental flows,” “replenish rivers and lakes,” and protect and restore inland freshwater ecosystems.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the detailed information provided in the article, the following specific SDG targets are relevant:

1. Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity.
   • Explanation: The article details a significant increase in water productivity (“economic output per unit of water use reached ~$50 m−3… in 2023, compared to just ~$17 m−3… in 2005”), a reduction in groundwater abstraction by ~12 km³, and the implementation of water-saving irrigation and industrial conservation efforts. These actions directly contribute to increasing water-use efficiency and managing water scarcity.
2. Target 6.5: By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels.
   • Explanation: The case of the NCP is a prime example of IWRM. The article describes a combination of strategies including large-scale inter-basin water diversion (SNWD), “stringent groundwater pumping regulations,” managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and the conjunctive use of surface water, groundwater, and reclaimed water, all managed through coordinated policy.
3. Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes.
   • Explanation: The article documents direct actions to restore ecosystems, stating that “excess diverted water has been used to replenish rivers and lakes” and that environmental water allocations have increased to “over 7 km³ since 2021.” This has led to the “rejuvenation of drying rivers” and the “re-emergence of springs.”
4. Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production [and] that help maintain ecosystems.
   • Explanation: The article describes the implementation of resilient agricultural practices such as adjusting “cultivation practices, dryland farming, seasonal fallow,” and reducing the area of water-intensive double cropping. These measures were implemented to create a sustainable food system that could function with less water, while food production still rose.
5. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce… direct economic losses… caused by disasters, including water-related disasters.
   • Explanation: Groundwater depletion leads to land subsidence, a slow-onset disaster. The article notes that as a result of the interventions and groundwater recovery, “land subsidence in the NCP has also stabilized or begun to recover,” directly addressing this target.
6. Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
   • Explanation: The core theme of the article is the shift from unsustainable over-extraction of groundwater to a more sustainable management model. This is evidenced by the reduction in groundwater pumping, the diversification of water sources to include reclaimed and diverted water, and policies to curb demand.
7. Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.
   • Explanation: This target is addressed through the documented recovery of the aquifer itself (“groundwater levels have risen at an average rate of ~0.7 m year−1 since 2020”) and the restoration of associated freshwater ecosystems like rivers and lakes through dedicated environmental water allocations.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article is rich with quantitative data that can serve as direct or proxy indicators for measuring progress towards the identified targets.

• For Target 6.4 (Water-use efficiency and water stress):
  • Change in water-use efficiency (Indicator 6.4.1): The article quantifies this by stating that “economic output per unit of water use reached ~$50 m−3” in 2023, up from “~$17 m−3” in 2005. It also notes that “Annual irrigation intensity decreased by more than 30% from 2005… to 2023.”
  • Level of water stress (Indicator 6.4.2): Progress is shown by the reduction in groundwater abstraction (“annual groundwater abstraction by ~12 km³”) and the decrease in reliance on local groundwater from “two-thirds of the total water supply” in 2005 to about one-third in 2023.
• For Target 6.5 (Integrated Water Resources Management):
  • Degree of IWRM implementation (Indicator 6.5.1): The article provides evidence of implementation through policies like the SNWD project (“provided 5.3 km³ of water” in 2023), pumping regulations (“closure of >27,000 wells by 2023”), and water use quotas.
• For Target 6.6 & 15.1 (Extent of water-related ecosystems):
  • Change in extent of water-related ecosystems (Indicator 6.6.1): The article provides quantitative evidence of restoration efforts, such as allocating “over 7 km³ since 2021” for environmental use and using “over 10 km³ of water from the SNWD project… to restore rivers.” The primary indicator of aquifer recovery is the rate of groundwater level rise (“~0.7 m year−1”).
• For Target 2.4 (Sustainable agriculture):
  • Proportion of agricultural area under productive and sustainable agriculture: The article provides proxy indicators such as the reduction in double-cropped area (“declined by ~10,000 km²”) and the fact that “regional food production… rose from ~28 million tons in 2005 to ~42 million tons in 2023” despite water conservation measures.
• For Target 11.5 (Disaster risk reduction):
  • Direct economic loss and number of people affected by disasters: The article provides a qualitative indicator by stating that “land subsidence in the NCP has also stabilized or begun to recover,” which implies a reduction in risk and future losses from this hazard.
• For Target 12.2 (Sustainable resource management):
  • Material footprint and domestic material consumption: The reduction in groundwater usage from “~25 km³” in 2005 to “~13 km³” in 2023 is a direct indicator of reduced consumption of this natural resource. The increase in reclaimed water use to “4.4 km³ by 2023” is an indicator of circular economy principles being applied.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators Identified in the Article
SDG 2: Zero Hunger	2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices.	Reduction in double-cropped area by ~10,000 km². Increase in regional food production from ~28 million tons (2005) to ~42 million tons (2023). Adoption of dryland farming and seasonal fallow periods.
SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation	6.4: Substantially increase water-use efficiency and ensure sustainable withdrawals. 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management (IWRM). 6.6: Protect and restore water-related ecosystems.	Increase in economic output per unit of water use (from ~$17/m³ in 2005 to ~$50/m³ in 2023). Decrease in annual irrigation intensity by over 30%. Reduction in annual groundwater abstraction by ~12 km³. Implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project. Closure of over 27,000 wells by 2023. Groundwater levels rising at an average rate of ~0.7 m/year since 2020. Allocation of over 7 km³ of water for environmental use since 2021.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.5: Significantly reduce economic losses from water-related disasters.	Stabilization and recovery of land subsidence in major cities (e.g., Beijing, Tianjin). Replacement of municipal groundwater pumping with diverted water.
SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production	12.2: Achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.	Groundwater usage nearly halved from ~25 km³ (2005) to ~13 km³ (2023). Reclaimed water use grew to 4.4 km³ by 2023 (12% of total supply). Phasing out of water-intensive industries.
SDG 15: Life on Land	15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems.	Re-emergence of springs in regions like Beijing and Xingtai. Rejuvenation of drying rivers and restoration of riparian ecosystems. Replenishment of lakes (e.g., Baiyangdian Lake).

Source: nature.com