Is Southern California prepared to avoid a ‘Day Zero’ water crisis? – Los Angeles Times

 

Report on Southern California’s Water Sustainability and Climate Adaptation Strategy

1.0 Introduction: Climate-Induced Water Scarcity and Systemic Vulnerabilities

Southern California, a region supporting 19 million people, has historically depended on large-scale water transport systems from the Colorado River, the Eastern Sierra, and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. This model is facing unprecedented threats due to climate change, which jeopardizes long-term water security. The primary challenges are:

• Climate Change Impacts: Global warming is projected to diminish mountain snowpack and intensify drought cycles, rendering traditional water sources less reliable.
• Supply Projections: State projections indicate that without intervention, water deliveries from the Delta could decrease by 13% to 23% within two decades. The flow of the Colorado River has already diminished by approximately 20% in the 21st century.
• Systemic Risk: The region’s reliance on imported water creates a vulnerability to a “Day Zero” crisis, a scenario where water supplies approach depletion, as witnessed during the 2020-22 drought that prompted emergency restrictions for nearly 7 million people.

2.0 Strategic Framework: Aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

In response to these challenges, regional water agencies, led by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD), are implementing a comprehensive strategy to build a resilient and sustainable water future. The core objective is to develop a diversified portfolio of water sources that ensures reliability while maintaining affordability. This strategy is fundamentally aligned with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): The primary focus is on ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water for all. This includes increasing water-use efficiency (Target 6.4) and expanding water recycling (Target 6.3).
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Efforts aim to make urban settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable by adapting to water-related disasters (Target 11.5) and implementing integrated policies for resource efficiency and climate adaptation (Target 11.b).
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): The entire framework is a direct response to climate change, designed to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards (Target 13.1).

Key Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

3.1 Wastewater Recycling and Water Quality Improvement (SDG 6, SDG 14)

A cornerstone of the region’s strategy is to transform wastewater from a liability into a valuable resource, directly supporting SDG 6.3 by increasing recycling and improving water quality. This also contributes to SDG 14.1 by reducing the volume of treated effluent discharged into the ocean.

• Pure Water Southern California: This flagship $8 billion project in Carson aims to produce up to 150 million gallons of purified drinking water daily, enough for approximately 500,000 homes.
• Direct Potable Reuse: Following the adoption of new state rules in 2023, the purified water could eventually be integrated directly into the drinking water supply system, creating what MWD Board Chair Adán Ortega Jr. calls a “new and endless river.”
• Regional Projects: The cities of Los Angeles and San Diego are also advancing similar large-scale water recycling initiatives.

3.2 Water Conservation and Efficiency (SDG 6, SDG 11)

Maximizing water-use efficiency is identified as the most cost-effective and immediate method to enhance water security, aligning with SDG 6.4. These measures are critical for building sustainable urban environments as envisioned in SDG 11.

• Proven Reductions: Between 1990 and 2023, per-person water use in Southern California decreased by 45%, from 209 to 114 gallons per day, demonstrating the high potential of conservation.
• Future Potential: Research by the Pacific Institute indicates that the region could further reduce urban water use by 30% or more by implementing existing technologies, such as fixing leaks and replacing inefficient appliances and landscaping.
• Legislative Action: A 2023 state law banning the use of drinking water for “nonfunctional” turf on commercial and industrial properties is expected to yield substantial water savings.

3.3 Stormwater Capture and Nature-Based Solutions (SDG 11, SDG 15)

The strategy includes integrating nature-based solutions to manage water resources more holistically, contributing to the restoration of freshwater ecosystems (SDG 15.1) and the creation of accessible green spaces in cities (SDG 11.7).

• Stormwater as a Resource: The Pacific Institute estimates that scaling up stormwater capture efforts could secure up to 860,000 acre-feet of water in an average year.
• Green Infrastructure: Proponents advocate for “sponge city” concepts, which involve removing concrete to restore floodplains, allowing runoff to percolate and recharge groundwater aquifers.
• Co-Benefits: These projects offer additional benefits such as reducing urban heat, mitigating flood risks, and restoring natural habitats within the urban landscape.

3.4 Infrastructure Development and Innovation (SDG 9)

Significant investments in both new and existing infrastructure are being evaluated to ensure a reliable and resilient water system, in line with SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). This involves modernizing legacy systems and developing innovative local water sources.

1. Water Storage and Conveyance: MWD is expanding its underground water banking capacity and re-engineering pipelines to improve water distribution during droughts. A major debate surrounds the proposed $20.1 billion Delta Conveyance Project, a tunnel intended to improve the reliability of water deliveries from Northern California.
2. Seawater Desalination: Agencies are studying the feasibility of desalination projects, including a proposal for a submerged “farm” of desalination devices off the coast of Malibu.
3. Ecological Considerations: Decisions on infrastructure, particularly the Delta tunnel, involve complex trade-offs affecting the ecological health of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, impacting fish species and aligning with concerns under SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Global Perspectives and Risk Management

4.1 Lessons from International “Day Zero” Scenarios (SDG 11, SDG 13)

The experience of other global cities provides critical lessons in proactive climate adaptation. Cape Town, South Africa, narrowly averted its “Day Zero” in 2018 through aggressive conservation and is now investing heavily in diversifying its water supply. This underscores the importance of proactive planning to strengthen resilience to climate-related disasters (SDG 13.1) and ensure the sustainability of cities (SDG 11.5).

• Proactive Investment: The key lesson is that resilient infrastructure cannot be built in the middle of a crisis. Long-term planning and investment are essential.
• Supply Diversification: Cape Town’s strategy post-crisis focuses on a mix of groundwater, desalination, and wastewater reuse, validating Southern California’s approach.

4.2 Planning for Deep Uncertainty and Ensuring Affordability (SDG 1, SDG 10)

The MWD’s Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water is designed to navigate “deep uncertainty” by preparing for climate scenarios more extreme than any in recorded history. A central challenge is to fund these multi-billion dollar projects without making water unaffordable, a goal that aligns with SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

• Adaptive Management: The plan sets targets, such as securing 300,000 acre-feet of new local supplies by 2035, while allowing for incremental decisions based on real-world conditions to prevent overbuilding.
• Cost-Benefit Analysis: Water managers must weigh the costs of various projects to deliver reliability while preventing steep rate hikes that could disproportionately affect low-income households.

Conclusion: Transitioning to a Resilient Water Future

5.1 Summary of Challenges and Imperatives

Southern California is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a 20th-century model of water importation to a 21st-century model based on local resilience, efficiency, and sustainability. This shift is essential for adapting to a new climate reality.

• The New Ethic: The focus must shift to prioritizing local, resilient water supplies through conservation, recycling, and stormwater capture.
• Environmental Co-Benefits: Reducing reliance on imported water, which is highly energy-intensive, will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (SDG 13) and ease pressure on strained ecosystems like the Delta (SDG 14, SDG 15).

5.2 Path Forward

Avoiding a “Day Zero” scenario in Southern California requires a sustained, multi-decade commitment to investment and innovation. While current water storage levels are high due to recent wet winters, long-term planning for more severe droughts and other potential disruptions, such as earthquakes, remains paramount. Failure to invest in maintaining and upgrading infrastructure, while developing new local supplies, risks the water security of the entire region.

SDGs Addressed in the Article

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation – The core of the article focuses on ensuring a stable, safe, and affordable water supply for Southern California amidst climate change-induced scarcity.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure – The article details major investments in new and upgraded water infrastructure, such as recycling plants and conveyance systems, to ensure future water security.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities – The discussion centers on making the vast urban area of Southern California resilient to water-related disasters like droughts and ensuring its long-term sustainability.
• SDG 13: Climate Action – The article explicitly identifies climate change as the primary threat to water supplies and frames all proposed solutions as adaptation strategies to its impacts.
• SDG 15: Life on Land – The article touches upon the environmental consequences of water diversion on freshwater ecosystems and discusses nature-based solutions to improve water management.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

1. Target 6.1: Achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all.
   • The article highlights the challenge of supplying water to “19 million people” and the goal to implement costly projects “somehow won’t make water too expensive for the public,” directly addressing the need for affordable and accessible water.
2. Target 6.3: Improve water quality by… substantially increasing recycling and safe reuse.
   • This is directly addressed by the plan to build the “Pure Water Southern California” facility, which is projected to “produce up to 150 million gallons of drinking water daily by purifying treated effluent that is now discharged into the ocean.”
3. Target 6.4: Substantially increase water-use efficiency… and ensure sustainable withdrawals… to address water scarcity.
   • The article discusses significant gains in water efficiency, noting that “Southern Californians reduced per-person water use by 45%,” and points to further potential savings by “fixing leaks in pipes, replacing inefficient washing machines and toilets, and replacing thirsty lawns.”
4. Target 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management at all levels.
   • The Metropolitan Water District’s (MWD) “Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water” is a clear example of an integrated plan that assesses risks, sets goals, and evaluates a diversified mix of water sources.
5. Target 6.6: Protect and restore water-related ecosystems.
   • The article mentions that water diversions have led to the “ecological deterioration of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.” It also discusses solutions like restoring watersheds and implementing “green infrastructure” such as parks and wetlands.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

1. Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure… with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all.
   • The article details plans for massive infrastructure projects, including the “$8 billion” Pure Water recycling facility and the potential “$20.1 billion” Delta Conveyance Project, all aimed at creating a reliable and resilient water supply system for the future.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

1. Target 11.5: Significantly reduce the number of people affected… by disasters, including water-related disasters.
   • The entire article is framed around preventing a “Day Zero” crisis, a severe water-related disaster. It references the 2020-22 drought, which led to “emergency water restrictions for nearly 7 million people,” as a crisis to be avoided in the future.
2. Target 11.b: Increase the number of cities… adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards… resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters.
   • The MWD’s “Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water” and the discussion of creating “sponge cities” through nature-based solutions are direct examples of integrated plans for climate adaptation and disaster resilience in an urban settlement.

SDG 13: Climate Action

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
   • The article is a case study in climate adaptation. It states that the “overarching goal… is to plan for a warming climate with longer droughts and more extreme storm runoff patterns.” All strategies discussed, from recycling to conservation, are aimed at strengthening resilience.

SDG 15: Life on Land

1. Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems.
   • The article notes the negative impact of water diversions on the “Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, where native fish species have suffered major declines.” It also proposes solutions like restoring watersheds and removing concrete to reactivate floodplains, which would help restore inland water ecosystems.

Implied or Mentioned Indicators

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

1. Indicator 6.1.1: Proportion of population using safely managed drinking water services.
   • This is implied by the focus on preventing a “Day Zero” crisis for “19 million people” and avoiding intermittent service like that seen in Mexico City, which would represent a failure to provide safely managed services.
2. Indicator 6.3.1: Proportion of domestic and industrial wastewater flows safely treated.
   • The plan to build the “Pure Water Southern California” facility to recycle “treated effluent that is now discharged into the ocean” directly relates to increasing the proportion of safely treated and reused wastewater.
3. Indicator 6.4.1: Change in water-use efficiency over time.
   • The article explicitly states this indicator by noting that between 1990 and 2023, per-person water use was reduced “by 45%, from 209 gallons per day to 114 gallons per day.”
4. Indicator 6.4.2: Level of water stress.
   • The article implies a high level of water stress by stating that traditional water sources are becoming “less reliable,” the flow of the Colorado River has “diminished about 20% this century,” and state projections show deliveries could “decrease by between 13% and 23% within two decades.”

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

1. Indicator 11.5.1: Number of people affected by disasters per 100,000 population.
   • This is referenced by the mention of “nearly 7 million people” being placed under emergency water restrictions during the 2020-22 drought, providing a specific number of people affected by a water-related disaster.

SDG 13: Climate Action

1. Indicator 13.1.1: Number of countries and local governments that have adopted and implemented local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national strategies.
   • The MWD’s adoption of the “Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water” is a direct example of a local government entity implementing a disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation strategy.

Summary of Findings

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation	6.1: Achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all. 6.3: Substantially increase recycling and safe reuse of wastewater. 6.4: Substantially increase water-use efficiency and address water scarcity. 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management. 6.6: Protect and restore water-related ecosystems.	6.1.1 (Implied): Maintaining continuous, safe water service for 19 million people and avoiding a “Day Zero” crisis. 6.3.1 (Mentioned): Plans to build a large-scale facility to recycle wastewater currently discharged into the ocean. 6.4.1 (Mentioned): Per-person water use dropped 45% (from 209 to 114 gallons/day) between 1990-2023. 6.4.2 (Implied): High water stress indicated by shrinking supplies from the Colorado River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure	9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure.	(Implied): The article details multi-billion dollar investments in new infrastructure like the “Pure Water Southern California” recycling plant and the “Delta Conveyance Project” to ensure a resilient water supply.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.5: Significantly reduce the number of people affected by water-related disasters. 11.b: Increase the number of cities implementing integrated plans for resilience and climate adaptation.	11.5.1 (Mentioned): “Nearly 7 million people” were affected by emergency water restrictions during the 2020-22 drought. (Implied): The MWD’s “Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water” is a direct example of an integrated resilience plan for a major metropolitan area.
SDG 13: Climate Action	13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards.	13.1.1 (Implied): The adoption of the “Climate Adaptation Master Plan for Water” by the MWD serves as an example of a local government implementing a climate adaptation strategy.
SDG 15: Life on Land	15.1: Ensure the conservation and restoration of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems.	(Implied): The article notes the “ecological deterioration” of the Delta and decline of fish species due to water diversions, highlighting the need for restoration and protection.

Source: latimes.com