Novel readiness index for climate change adaptation in Québec – Nature

 

Report on Climate Change Adaptation Readiness in Québec’s Agricultural Sector

Executive Summary

This report presents a novel Readiness Index to evaluate climate change adaptation preparedness in Québec’s agricultural sector, with a direct focus on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The index integrates an adaptive capacity score, derived from literacy (SDG 4: Quality Education) and poverty rates (SDG 1: No Poverty), with a climate score based on precipitation, temperature, and freezing degree days. Analysis of data from 1991–2024 reveals significant regional disparities, directly impacting SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Southern, central, and more urbanised regions demonstrate higher readiness due to superior socio-economic conditions. In contrast, northern and peripheral regions exhibit lower readiness, highlighting their vulnerability. The findings underscore that strengthening adaptive capacity through poverty reduction and improved education is more critical for enhancing climate readiness than the magnitude of climatic stressors alone. This assessment provides a crucial tool for policymakers to target interventions that bolster agricultural resilience and ensure progress towards sustainable development.

Introduction: Aligning Agricultural Resilience with Sustainable Development Goals

Climate change poses a significant threat to Québec’s agricultural sector, jeopardizing food security (SDG 2: Zero Hunger), economic stability, and rural livelihoods. Effective climate action (SDG 13) requires not only understanding climatic shifts but also evaluating the capacity of communities to adapt. This report introduces a Readiness Index to systematically assess regional preparedness for climate adaptation. The index is built on the premise that true readiness is a function of both climatic exposure and socio-economic resilience. By using poverty (SDG 1) and literacy (SDG 4) as key proxies for adaptive capacity, this study provides a nuanced understanding of the inequalities (SDG 10) that shape vulnerability. The primary objectives are:

1. To develop a robust Readiness Index for Québec’s agricultural sector, grounded in principles of sustainable development.
2. To map regional disparities in climate readiness, identifying vulnerable areas to inform equitable and effective adaptation planning.

Methodology for Assessing Climate Readiness

Index Components

The Readiness Index is a composite measure combining two primary scores:

• Adaptive Capacity Score: This score measures the socio-economic resilience of a region. It is based on two key proxies that are fundamental to achieving the SDGs:
  • Poverty Rates (Indicator for SDG 1: No Poverty)
  • Literacy Rates (Indicator for SDG 4: Quality Education)
• Climate Score: This score quantifies the climatic pressures on the agricultural sector. It includes normalised data on:
  • Annual Total Precipitation
  • Average Annual Temperature
  • Annual Freezing Degree Days

Data Sources and Processing

Data spanning 1991–2024 were collected for six regions in Québec, classified as central or peripheral to analyse regional inequalities (SDG 10).

• Adaptive Capacity Data: Literacy and poverty rates were obtained from Statistics Québec (ISQ) and Québec’s Ministry of Agriculture (MAPAQ). Missing data points were estimated using linear interpolation.
• Climate Data: Historical and projected climate data (CMIP6, SSP3-7) were sourced from Ouranos. These data were normalised to allow for integration and comparison within the Readiness Index model.

Analysis of Regional Disparities in Climate Readiness

Climatic and Socio-Economic Trends (1991-2024)

• Climate Trends: Over the period, most regions experienced increased precipitation and rising average annual temperatures, alongside a consistent decline in freezing degree days, confirming ongoing climate change impacts relevant to SDG 13.
• Socio-Economic Trends: General improvements were observed, with declining income poverty rates (advancing SDG 1) and rising literacy rates (advancing SDG 4). However, peripheral regions consistently lagged behind central regions in both metrics.

Regional Readiness Index Scores

The analysis reveals a clear divide between central and peripheral regions, highlighting a critical challenge for SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

1. Centre-du-Québec (Central): 0.581
2. Montérégie (Central): 0.578
3. Estrie (Central): 0.573
4. Outaouais (Peripheral): 0.572
5. Abitibi-Témiscamingue (Peripheral): 0.570
6. Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (Peripheral): 0.568

The central regions consistently demonstrate higher readiness for climate change adaptation. Centre-du-Québec emerges as the most prepared region, correlating with its high literacy rate and low poverty rate.

Correlation Analysis

• Adaptive Capacity vs. Readiness: The Readiness Index is strongly driven by adaptive capacity. Literacy rates show a high positive correlation (R² = 0.86), while poverty rates show a strong negative correlation (R² = 0.70). This indicates that progress on SDG 1 and SDG 4 is paramount for building climate resilience.
• Climate Variables vs. Readiness: Climatic variables exhibited a very weak correlation with the Readiness Index, suggesting that socio-economic conditions are a more significant determinant of a region’s preparedness than the intensity of climate stressors.

Discussion: Socio-Economic Factors as Drivers of Climate Readiness

The findings confirm that readiness for climate adaptation is fundamentally linked to sustainable development. The disparities between Québec’s central and peripheral regions are not primarily due to differences in climate exposure but rather to underlying socio-economic inequalities (SDG 10). Peripheral regions, with higher poverty (SDG 1) and lower literacy (SDG 4), have diminished capacity to access information, financial resources, and support systems needed for effective adaptation. This vulnerability directly threatens local agriculture and food security (SDG 2).

This underscores a critical policy insight: effective climate action (SDG 13) must be integrated with social and economic development strategies. Enhancing access to education and alleviating poverty are not just social goals; they are essential investments in climate resilience. Without addressing these foundational issues, peripheral communities will remain disproportionately vulnerable to climate impacts, hindering the province’s overall progress towards the SDGs.

Conclusion and Policy Implications for Achieving SDGs

This report successfully developed and applied a Readiness Index for Québec’s agricultural sector, revealing that socio-economic factors are the primary drivers of climate adaptation preparedness. The central regions of Québec are better equipped for adaptation due to lower poverty rates and higher literacy levels.

The key takeaway is that building resilience to climate change is inseparable from the broader agenda of sustainable development. To enhance readiness across Québec and ensure no region is left behind, policy interventions must focus on strengthening adaptive capacity. This includes:

• Integrating socio-economic support into climate policies like the Plan for a Green Economy (PEV2030) to ensure equitable access to adaptation measures. This directly supports SDG 1, SDG 10, and SDG 13.
• Investing in education and climate literacy programs, particularly in peripheral regions, to empower farmers with the knowledge to adapt (SDG 4).
• Tailoring adaptation strategies to local socio-economic realities to ensure they are practical and effective, thereby safeguarding food production (SDG 2).

By focusing on the socio-economic determinants of resilience, Québec can foster a more equitable and effective response to climate change, advancing multiple Sustainable Development Goals simultaneously.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty

   • The article directly addresses poverty by using “poverty rates” as a key proxy for adaptive capacity. It analyzes how poverty levels differ between regions in Québec and establishes a clear inverse relationship between poverty and a region’s readiness for climate change adaptation, stating, “when poverty rates increase, there is a corresponding decrease in the readiness index.”

2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • The article connects climate change to agriculture and food production. It explicitly mentions that the impacts of climate change, such as droughts and floods, “threaten food security, economic stability and rural livelihoods.” The research aims to strengthen “agricultural resilience,” which is fundamental to achieving zero hunger.

3. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Education is a central theme, with “literacy rates” and “climate literacy” identified as critical components of adaptive capacity. The study finds a strong positive correlation between literacy and readiness, noting that “as the literacy rate increases, so does the readiness index.” This underscores the importance of knowledge and education in promoting sustainable development and climate action.

4. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • A core finding of the article is the disparity in climate readiness between different regions of Québec. It highlights that “southern or central and more urbanised areas demonstrating higher readiness levels… in contrast to the northern and resource-dependent or peripheral regions.” This analysis of inequality based on geographical location and socio-economic factors is directly relevant to SDG 10.

5. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • This is the primary focus of the article. The entire study is centered on developing a “Readiness Index for climate change adaptation in Québec’s agricultural sector.” It analyzes climate trends (precipitation, temperature) and evaluates the “adaptive capacity” of regions to cope with climate-related hazards, directly contributing to the goals of strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty

   • Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions. The article’s analysis of “income poverty rates” and their impact on farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change directly relates to this target. It shows that regions with higher poverty are less prepared, implying that poverty reduction is essential for building climate resilience.

2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality. The article’s focus on assessing the “readiness of Québec’s farmers for climate change adaptation” and strengthening “agricultural resilience” directly supports the goal of implementing resilient agricultural practices.

3. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Target 4.7: By 2030, ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development, including, among others, through education for sustainable development and sustainable lifestyles… and climate change adaptation. The article emphasizes the role of “climate literacy” and general “literacy rates” as crucial for adaptive capacity, highlighting that “low levels of literacy often correlate with lower access to information related to climate.” This directly aligns with the need for education on climate change adaptation.

4. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status. The article’s comparative analysis of “peripheral and central regions” reveals significant socio-economic disparities that affect climate readiness. By identifying vulnerable areas (“peripheral regions generally exhibit lower literacy and higher poverty rates”), the research provides a basis for targeted policies to reduce these inequalities.

5. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The development and application of the “Readiness Index” is a direct attempt to measure and enhance resilience and adaptive capacity in Québec’s agricultural sector.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The study’s finding that “readiness for climate change adaptation is primarily driven by adaptive capacity and its proxies (literacy and poverty rates)” underscores the importance of building human capacity through education and economic support, as called for in this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For SDG 1 (No Poverty)

   • Indicator for Target 1.2: The article explicitly uses “Poverty rates” (measured by agricultural household annual income) as a direct indicator to assess the economic dimension of adaptive capacity. The data shows that regions with lower poverty rates, like Montérégie (15.23), have higher readiness scores.

2. For SDG 4 (Quality Education)

   • Indicator for Target 4.7: The study uses “Literacy rates” as a key indicator. It also specifically refers to “climate literacy,” which it defines as the “basic ability to read and understand climate-related information.” These are used to measure the educational component of adaptive capacity, with data showing that Centre-du-Québec has the highest literacy rate (53.32) and the highest readiness index.

3. For SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities)

   • Indicators for Target 10.2: The article uses regional disparities in “poverty rates,” “literacy rates,” and the composite “Readiness Index” as indicators of inequality. The comparison between “central regions” (e.g., Centre-du-Québec readiness score: 0.581) and “peripheral regions” (e.g., Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean readiness score: 0.568) serves as a measure of socio-economic and geographical inequality.

4. For SDG 13 (Climate Action)

   • Indicators for Target 13.1: The novel “Readiness Index” itself is presented as a composite indicator to measure resilience and adaptive capacity. Furthermore, its components are used as specific indicators:
     • Climate Indicators: “Annual total solid and liquid precipitation,” “average annual temperature,” and “annual freezing degree days.”
     • Adaptive Capacity Indicators: “Poverty rates” and “Literacy rates.”
   • Indicator for Target 13.3: “Literacy rates” and the concept of “climate literacy” are direct indicators of human capacity and awareness regarding climate change adaptation, as discussed in the article.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 1: No Poverty	1.2: Reduce poverty in all its dimensions.	Poverty rates (based on agricultural household annual income).
SDG 2: Zero Hunger	2.4: Ensure sustainable food production and implement resilient agricultural practices.	Readiness Index (as a measure of agricultural resilience). Adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector.
SDG 4: Quality Education	4.7: Ensure all learners acquire knowledge and skills for sustainable development, including climate change adaptation.	Literacy rates. Climate literacy.
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities	10.2: Empower and promote social and economic inclusion of all, irrespective of location.	Regional disparities in poverty rates. Regional disparities in literacy rates. Regional disparities in the Readiness Index.
SDG 13: Climate Action	13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards. 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human capacity on climate change adaptation.	Readiness Index (composite indicator). Adaptive capacity score. Climate score (based on annual precipitation, annual temperature, and freezing degree days). Literacy rates and climate literacy (for human capacity).

Source: nature.com