Ocean acidification threatens planetary health: Interview with Johan Rockström – mronline.org

2025 Planetary Health Check Report: Analysis and Sustainable Development Goal Implications

Introduction: A Planetary Emergency

The 2025 Planetary Health Check report confirms a significant deterioration of Earth’s life-support systems. The transgression of the ocean acidification boundary marks the seventh of nine planetary boundaries to be crossed, severely compromising the “safe operating space for humanity.” This report analyzes the findings through the lens of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), highlighting the interconnected nature of environmental stability, social equity, and global prosperity.

Key Findings: Breached Planetary Boundaries

The assessment indicates that humanity is failing to meet fundamental environmental targets, directly undermining the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Seven boundaries are now in a high-risk zone:

• Climate Change
• Biosphere Integrity
• Land System Change
• Freshwater Change
• Biogeochemical Flows (Nitrogen and Phosphorus)
• Novel Entities (including microplastics)
• Ocean Acidification (newly transgressed)

Only two boundaries, stratospheric ozone depletion and atmospheric aerosol loading, remain within the safe zone.

Impact on Marine Ecosystems and Coastal Communities

Threats to SDG 14: Life Below Water

The transgression of the ocean acidification boundary poses a direct and existential threat to marine life, central to SDG 14.

1. Chemical Degradation: Increased absorption of atmospheric CO₂ lowers seawater pH, eroding calcium carbonate, the essential building block for shell-forming organisms like corals and plankton.
2. Cumulative Stressors: Oceans face multiple pressures simultaneously, including accelerated warming (breaching the climate boundary), eutrophication from nutrient runoff (biogeochemical flows boundary), and biodiversity loss from industrial fishing (biosphere integrity boundary).
3. Ecosystem Collapse: The fourth global coral bleaching event, driven by ocean heat, is pushing tropical reef systems toward collapse. This rapid degradation undermines the foundation of marine biodiversity and ecosystem resilience.

Socio-Economic Consequences for the Global South

The degradation of marine ecosystems disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, creating significant setbacks for several SDGs.

• SDG 1 (No Poverty) & SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): At least 300 million people, primarily in the Global South, depend directly on coastal marine ecosystems for their livelihoods and food security. The collapse of these systems threatens to exacerbate poverty and hunger.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The destruction of coral reefs undermines critical economic sectors, including local fishing industries, which lose their spawning grounds, and tourism.
• SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities): The impacts of planetary boundary transgressions are not felt equally. Coastal communities in South and East Asia, the Pacific Islands, and the Caribbean bear the brunt of environmental degradation they have contributed least to.

Systemic Risks: Climate Tipping Points and Global Governance

The AMOC Tipping Point and SDG 13: Climate Action

The report highlights the increasing risk of crossing large-scale climate tipping points, with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) being a primary concern.

1. Increased Probability: Recent scientific analysis suggests the probability of an AMOC shutdown this century is as high as 10%, an unacceptable risk given the catastrophic consequences. This signifies a failure to achieve the goals of SDG 13.
2. Global Consequences: An AMOC collapse would trigger cascading global impacts, including accelerated planetary warming, drastic shifts in monsoon systems affecting West Africa and the Amazon, and rapid ice melt in Antarctica.
3. A Call for Precautionary Action: The risk to the AMOC is described as a “canary in the coal mine,” demanding that leaders apply the same risk-management principles to planetary health as they do to economic or national security.

Failures in Global Cooperation and Policy

Recent events underscore a deficit in the global cooperation required to address these challenges, impacting multiple SDGs.

• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): The failure to achieve a U.N. plastics treaty represents a significant setback. The unabated production of petrochemical plastics contributes to the transgression of the “novel entities” boundary, with microplastics now found in every ecosystem on Earth.
• SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions): Geopolitical conflicts divert critical attention and financial resources away from climate action. Furthermore, the erosion of planetary boundaries can itself be a driver of conflict by creating food, water, and land insecurity.
• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): The report stresses the need for renewed global leadership and cooperation, urging the U.S. to re-engage at COP30. Success requires a unified approach that integrates the protection of all Earth systems—biodiversity, freshwater, oceans, and land—into climate negotiations.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article is fundamentally about the climate crisis, referencing the transgression of the climate change planetary boundary, rising ocean heat, melting ice sheets, and the need for international climate negotiations like COP30.
2. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • This is a central theme, with the report announcing the transgression of the ocean acidification boundary. The text extensively discusses threats to marine ecosystems, including coral bleaching, overfishing, eutrophication (nitrogen and phosphorus pollution), and the impact on marine biodiversity.
3. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • The article connects marine and climate systems to terrestrial ones, mentioning the transgression of boundaries for “land system change” and “biosphere integrity.” It specifically notes how changes in ocean circulation (AMOC) could impact the Amazon Rainforest.
4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • The failure of the U.N. Plastics Treaty is discussed in detail, highlighting the problem of “novel entities” (pollution). This relates directly to unsustainable production of petrochemical plastics and the need for better waste management.
5. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
   • The article explicitly discusses how widespread “armed conflict and political instability” divert attention and resources away from climate action. It emphasizes that peace is essential for planetary health, linking geopolitical stability to the ability to address environmental crises.
6. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The need for global cooperation is a recurring theme. The article mentions the U.N. plastics treaty negotiations, the upcoming COP30 climate summit, and the call to bring the U.S. back to the negotiating table, all of which underscore the importance of international partnerships to achieve sustainability.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 14 (Life Below Water):
   • Target 14.1: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution. This is addressed through the discussion of plastic pollution (microplastics found in the Arctic) and eutrophication caused by nitrogen and phosphorus runoff.
   • Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts. The article highlights the failure to meet this, citing the collapse of coral reef systems and the multiple stressors on coastal ecosystems.
   • Target 14.3: Minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification. This is the central announcement of the article, which states the ocean acidification planetary boundary has been breached due to the absorption of atmospheric CO₂.
   • Target 14.4: By 2020, effectively regulate harvesting and end overfishing. The article mentions “unsustainable industrial fishing” and the “loss in biodiversity due to overfishing” as key pressures on ocean systems.
2. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article discusses the catastrophic impacts of crossing tipping points like the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which would require immense resilience and adaptation.
3. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity. The article discusses the transgression of the “biosphere integrity” boundary and the “eradicating [of] species,” which directly relates to this target.
4. Under SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production):
   • Target 12.4: By 2020, achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and all wastes throughout their life cycle. The discussion on the failure of the plastics treaty and the persistence of microplastics highlights the lack of progress on this target.
5. Under SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions):
   • The article connects the lack of progress on environmental goals to global instability, implying a link to Target 16.1 (Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere). Rockström argues that armed conflicts divert money and attention from climate action, making peace a prerequisite for sustainability.
6. Under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):
   • Target 17.14: Enhance policy coherence for sustainable development. The article’s core argument for integrating the planetary boundaries framework into global talks like COP30 is a call for greater policy coherence.
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development. The discussion around the plastics treaty negotiations and the need for U.S. participation in COP30 directly addresses the challenges and necessity of global partnerships.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For Ocean Health (SDG 14):
   • Indicator for Target 14.3 (Ocean Acidification): The article explicitly mentions the “decreasing of pH in seawater caused by the absorption of atmospheric CO₂” as the key measure. The transgression of the planetary boundary for ocean acidification is the primary indicator of negative progress.
   • Indicator for Target 14.1 (Marine Pollution): The presence of “microplastics in every sample” taken across the Arctic serves as a direct indicator of plastic pollution. The flushing of “nitrogen and phosphorus into coastal zones” is an indicator for nutrient pollution.
   • Indicator for Target 14.2 (Ecosystem Health): The “fourth global [coral] bleaching event” is cited as a clear and dramatic indicator of the collapse of marine ecosystems.
2. For Climate Change (SDG 13):
   • Indicator for Target 13.1 (Climate Impacts): The article points to several critical indicators: the “faster than expected heat increase” in the ocean, the rate of melting of the “Greenland Ice Sheet,” and the slowing down of the “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).” The probability of an AMOC shutdown (estimated at 10% this century) is used as a risk indicator.
3. For Biodiversity (SDG 14 & 15):
   • Indicator for Target 14.4 & 15.5 (Biodiversity Loss): The article mentions the “eradicating [of] species by fishing down populations” as a direct indicator of biodiversity loss in marine environments.
4. For Global Cooperation (SDG 17):
   • Indicator for Target 17.16 (Partnerships): The success or failure of international negotiations, such as the “failed to achieve an agreement” outcome of the U.N. Plastics Treaty summit, serves as a qualitative indicator of the effectiveness of global partnerships.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: mronline.org