Pennsbury Enrollment Falls Below Projections – LevittownNow.com

Report on Enrollment Trends in Pennsbury School District and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

1.0 Introduction

This report analyzes the enrollment decline within the Pennsbury School District for the 2025-2026 academic year. The data is examined through the lens of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). The district serves students from Falls Township, Lower Makefield Township, Tullytown Borough, and Yardley Borough.

2.0 Enrollment Data and Key Findings

The district has recorded a significant decrease in student enrollment, reflecting a broader national trend. This decline has direct implications for resource allocation and strategic planning necessary to uphold the principles of SDG 4.

• Total student reduction: 319 students
• Percentage decrease: 3.32% from the previous year
• Discrepancy: Actual enrollment figures for October 1 were lower than projections developed by FutureThink, which were based on live birth data, historical enrollment, and community demographics.

3.0 Analysis by Educational Level

The enrollment decline is most pronounced at the elementary level, which challenges the district’s ability to provide inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all, as outlined in SDG 4.

3.1 Elementary Schools

• A significant gap exists between the number of exiting fifth-grade students and incoming kindergarten students.
• Kindergarten and first-grade enrollment has remained below 700 students for consecutive years.
• Specific school examples include:
  • Edgewood Elementary School: Exited nearly 80 fifth-graders while enrolling only 54 kindergarteners.
  • Quarry Hill Elementary School: Exited over 90 fifth-graders and welcomed 73 kindergarteners.
• The district operates 10 elementary schools, three of which (Afton, Edgewood, and Eleanor Roosevelt) host specialized learning classrooms, highlighting the need to maintain resources for inclusive education (SDG Target 4.5) despite lower overall numbers.

3.2 Middle and High Schools

• Middle Schools: Trends are mixed. Charles Boehm and Penwood middle schools reported higher sixth-grade enrollment compared to the previous year.
• High School: Enrollment for grades nine through twelve is slightly below 2,800 students.

3.3 Alternative Educational Programs

• Pennsbury Cyber Academy: Enrollment increased from 57 to 83 students, indicating a shift in educational delivery preferences.
• Bucks County Technical High School: Enrollment remained stable at 323 students.

4.0 Strategic Implications and Connection to Sustainable Development Goals

The district’s response to these demographic shifts is critical for its long-term sustainability and its commitment to providing quality education and contributing to community well-being.

1. SDG 4: Quality Education: Assistant Superintendent Dr. Kristopher Brown noted that while enrollment is declining, student needs may not decrease proportionally. The district must ensure that budget and staffing decisions do not compromise the quality of education, access to specialized services, or the goal of providing inclusive and safe learning environments (SDG Target 4.a).
2. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The enrollment data is a key factor in the planning and design of the new high school. As stated by School Board Member Linda Palsky, this data-driven approach ensures that community infrastructure is resilient, sustainable, and appropriately scaled to meet future needs.
3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The enrollment decline directly impacts future staffing and budget considerations. Strategic financial planning is required to manage resources effectively, address public calls for proportional budget adjustments, and sustain employment for educational staff.

5.0 National Context and Future Outlook

The enrollment situation in Pennsbury is consistent with nationwide trends, which are influenced by several socio-economic factors.

• Demographic Shifts: National data indicates that people are having fewer children and later in life.
• Educational Choices: An increase in school choice and homeschooling has been observed since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• National Projections: A National Center for Education Statistics study projects a 7.6% decline in nationwide school enrollment by 2031.
• Public Perception: A Gallup poll indicated a drop in adult satisfaction with public education from 37% in 2017 to 24% in 2025.

The Pennsbury School District will continue to monitor these trends to inform future planning and ensure its operations remain sustainable and aligned with its educational mission and broader community development goals.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  This is the primary SDG addressed in the article. The entire text focuses on the challenges of declining student enrollment in the Pennsbury School District. It discusses enrollment numbers across different educational levels (elementary, middle, high school), the factors contributing to this decline, and the implications for district planning, such as budgeting and infrastructure projects like the new high school. The article also touches upon inclusive education by mentioning specialized classrooms for special education students.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The article connects to SDG 11 through its discussion of community planning and demographics. The school district uses demographic data, including live birth rates and community trends, to create enrollment projections. These projections directly influence major infrastructure decisions, such as the “planning and design of our new high school.” This demonstrates how planning for public services like education is integral to developing sustainable and responsive communities.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 4.1: Ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education.

   • The article’s core theme is the decline in student enrollment across elementary, middle, and high school levels within the Pennsbury School District. It reports “319 fewer students than the previous year,” a “3.32 percent drop,” and provides specific numbers for the high school (“slightly below 2,800 students for grades nine through 12”). This data directly relates to the participation and completion rates in primary and secondary education.

2. Target 4.2: Ensure that all girls and boys have access to quality early childhood development, care and pre-primary education.

   • The article specifically highlights the decline in early-stage education, noting that “Kindergarten and first-grade enrollment has remained below 700 students for consecutive years, with kindergarten enrollment now ‘approaching 600 students’.” It also discusses the transition from pre-primary to primary education by mentioning the “8 percent to 10 percent bump in enrollment when students who attended preschool programs enter first grade, as kindergarten is not compulsory education.”

3. Target 4.a: Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all.

   • The article directly links enrollment data to infrastructure planning. It states, “The enrollment data have a part in the district’s planning for its new high school project.” This shows that demographic trends are a key factor in upgrading educational facilities. Furthermore, the article mentions inclusivity by noting that three elementary schools “host specialized learning classrooms for special education students,” which pertains to creating disability-sensitive and inclusive learning environments.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Enrollment and Participation Rates

   • The article is replete with quantitative data that serve as direct indicators. These include: total student enrollment numbers, the year-over-year percentage change in enrollment (“3.32 percent drop”), enrollment figures for specific grade levels (kindergarten, first grade, sixth grade), and enrollment in different types of schooling (public school, “Pennsbury Cyber Academy,” “Bucks County Technical High School”). These metrics are used to measure participation in primary, secondary, and pre-primary education (Targets 4.1 and 4.2).

2. Demographic and Projection Data

   • The district’s use of “10-year enrollment projections, which analyzed live birth data, historical enrollment, and community demographics” serves as an indicator for planning purposes. The comparison between “actual enrollment” and “projections” is a key metric the district uses to assess its situation and plan for the future, including for infrastructure as mentioned in Target 4.a.

3. Provision of Inclusive Education Facilities

   • The mention of “specialized learning classrooms for special education students” in three of the district’s elementary schools is an indicator of the district’s capacity and commitment to providing inclusive education, which is a key component of Target 4.a.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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