Trump immigration crackdown to cut workforce, slow growth, NFAP study finds – Mortgage Professional America

Economic Projections and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Impact on Economic Growth and Decent Work (SDG 8)

An analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) projects significant adverse effects on key economic indicators, undermining the objectives of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

• A cumulative reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $1.9 trillion by 2028 and $12.1 trillion by 2035.
• A projected decline in the annual GDP growth rate from 1.8% to 1.3% between 2025 and 2035, based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data.

The projections indicate a severe contraction in the labor market, directly challenging the goal of full and productive employment.

• A potential loss of 19 million worker years by 2028, escalating to 102 million by 2035.
• This is particularly critical given that immigrants constituted 84.7% of new labor force entrants between 2019 and 2024, highlighting their central role in sustaining the workforce.

Broader Socio-Economic Consequences and SDG Alignment

The forecasted economic downturn has far-reaching implications for several Sustainable Development Goals.

1. Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10) and No Poverty (SDG 1): The projected GDP loss translates to a significant decline in per-person prosperity, estimated at $5,612 by 2028 and $34,369 by 2035. Such a reduction in economic output threatens to increase poverty and exacerbate existing inequalities.
2. Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (SDG 16): The report forecasts a substantial increase in public debt, rising by $252 billion by 2028 and $1.74 trillion by 2035. This fiscal pressure could compromise the capacity of public institutions to deliver essential services and maintain stability.

The Role of Migration in Sustainable Development

The findings underscore the critical link between migration, labor force stability, and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

• The data confirms that immigrant labor is a primary driver of workforce growth, essential for maintaining economic productivity and achieving the targets of SDG 8.
• Policies impacting labor availability have a direct and measurable negative effect on national economic health, fiscal stability, and progress towards creating inclusive and prosperous societies as envisioned by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed in the Article

1. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • The article directly addresses this goal by focusing on the economic consequences of certain policies. It discusses significant negative impacts on labor, economic output (GDP), and employment. The projected “potential labor loss of 19 million worker years,” a reduction in GDP by “$1.9 trillion,” and a drop in the annual GDP growth rate from “1.8% to 1.3%” are all central to the concerns of SDG 8.

2. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • This goal is relevant through its focus on migration. The article highlights the crucial role of immigrants in the US economy, stating they “have been central to US labor force growth, accounting for 84.7% of new workers between 2019 and 2024.” The analysis implies that policies affecting migration (a key aspect of Target 10.7) have profound economic repercussions, connecting the well-being of migrant populations to the economic health of the nation.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

1. Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least 7 per cent gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries.

   • While the 7% figure is for least developed countries, the core principle of sustaining economic growth is central to the article. The analysis explicitly projects a failure to meet this principle, forecasting a reduction in “cumulative goods and services produced (GDP) in America by $1.9 trillion” and a drop in the annual growth rate to 1.3%. The projected loss of “$5,612 per person” by 2028 directly relates to the per capita aspect of this target.

2. Target 8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value.

   • The article points to a direct contradiction of this target. The “potential labor loss of 102 million worker years by 2035” and the mention of “32,000 private-sector job losses” signify a move away from, not towards, full and productive employment.

3. Target 10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies.

   • The article’s entire premise is based on the economic fallout from policies that would presumably restrict or disrupt migration. By highlighting that immigrants accounted for “84.7% of new workers,” the article underscores the economic importance of well-managed migration policies for maintaining labor force growth and, by extension, economic stability. The negative projections serve as a warning against policies that would undermine this target.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

1. Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita

   • The article provides direct data points that can be used for this indicator. It states that the policies would reduce GDP by “$5,612 per person” by 2028 and “$34,369 per person” by 2035. It also projects the overall annual GDP growth rate will “fall from 1.8% to 1.3% between 2025 and 2035.”

2. Indicators related to Employment (Implicitly related to 8.5.2: Unemployment rate)

   • The article provides several metrics that measure progress (or lack thereof) towards full employment. These include the “potential labor loss of 19 million worker years by 2028,” which is a measure of lost productivity and employment, and the specific mention of “32,000 private-sector job losses” in a single month, which is a direct measure of employment change.

3. Indicator of Migrant Contribution to the Labor Force (Implicitly related to Target 10.7)

   • An indicator for measuring the impact of migration policies is directly stated in the article: the share of labor force growth attributable to immigrants. The text specifies that immigrants accounted for “84.7% of new workers between 2019 and 2024,” providing a clear, measurable indicator of their contribution to the economy.

Summary Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: mpamag.com