Fertilizer prices gain momentum amid strong demand and geopolitical tensions – World Bank Blogs

World Bank April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook: Fertilizer Price Trends and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Overview of Fertilizer Price Developments in 2025

According to the World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, fertilizer prices have experienced a significant rise during the second quarter of 2025. The World Bank’s fertilizer price index increased by 15 percent since the beginning of the year. Notably, prices for triple superphosphate (TSP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) surged by 43 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

Key Drivers of Price Increases

1. Strong Demand: Global demand for fertilizers remains robust, contributing to upward price pressure.
2. Trade Restrictions: Export limitations, particularly from China, have constrained supply in international markets.
3. Production Shortfalls: Reduced output, especially in urea production, has tightened availability.

Price Projections and Market Outlook

• For the full year 2025, fertilizer prices are expected to register a modest increase compared to 2024, driven by sustained demand.
• Prices are projected to stabilize in 2026 but remain significantly above the 2015–2019 average.
• Elevated input costs, resilient consumption patterns, and ongoing export restrictions, sanctions, and tariffs (notably involving China, Belarus, and Russia) are anticipated to maintain price levels.
• Risks to the outlook include potential further increases in input costs and the possibility of price easing if Chinese fertilizer exports resume.

Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

Fertilizer price volatility directly impacts agricultural productivity and food security. Elevated fertilizer costs can hinder farmers’ ability to access essential inputs, potentially reducing crop yields and threatening progress toward achieving zero hunger globally.

SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

The current market dynamics highlight the need for more efficient fertilizer use and sustainable production practices. Addressing supply chain disruptions and promoting responsible consumption can mitigate environmental impacts and improve resource efficiency.

SDG 13: Climate Action

Price pressures may encourage the adoption of alternative, climate-smart agricultural inputs and practices. Supporting innovation in fertilizer production and usage aligns with climate action goals by reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with conventional fertilizers.

SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

International cooperation is critical to managing trade restrictions and sanctions that affect fertilizer availability. Strengthening partnerships among governments, the private sector, and international organizations can enhance market stability and support sustainable development.

Conclusion

The World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook underscores the complex interplay between fertilizer market dynamics and sustainable development objectives. Continued monitoring and coordinated policy responses are essential to ensure that fertilizer price trends do not undermine global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Explore the full World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook report here.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • The article discusses fertilizer prices, which directly impact agricultural productivity and food security.
2. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Issues related to production shortfalls, trade restrictions, and input costs relate to sustainable production and supply chains.
3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Economic factors such as trade restrictions, sanctions, and tariffs influence market stability and economic growth.
4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • International trade and cooperation issues (e.g., export restrictions, sanctions) highlight the importance of global partnerships.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers.
   • Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices.
2. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Target 12.2: Achieve sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
   • Target 12.3: Halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels.
3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading, and innovation.
4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Target 17.11: Significantly increase the exports of developing countries.
   • Target 17.13: Enhance global macroeconomic stability, including through policy coordination and coherence.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. Fertilizer Price Index
   • The World Bank’s fertilizer price index, which rose 15% in early 2025, serves as an economic indicator measuring input costs affecting agricultural productivity.
2. Price Changes of Specific Fertilizers
   • Price increases of Triple superphosphate (TSP) by 43% and diammonium phosphate (DAP) by 23% indicate market volatility and supply-demand dynamics.
3. Trade Restrictions and Export Data
   • Indicators related to export restrictions (e.g., from China), sanctions (Belarus), and tariffs (Belarus and Russia) imply monitoring trade flows and policy impacts.
4. Production Shortfalls
   • Implied measurement of fertilizer production volumes, especially urea, to assess supply adequacy.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: blogs.worldbank.org