Trump immigration policies would slash workforce estimate by 15.7 million and slow GDP growth by a third over the next decade, study says – Fortune

 

Report on the Socio-Economic and Sustainable Development Implications of U.S. Immigration Policies

A recent study by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) indicates that current U.S. immigration policies will lead to significant job losses and a substantial reduction in economic growth over the next decade. These outcomes present considerable challenges to the achievement of several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to economic prosperity, equality, and sustainable industry.

Impact on SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

The policies are projected to directly undermine the objectives of SDG 8, which aims to promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all. The reduction in the labor force is a primary concern.

Projected Labor Force and Economic Reduction

• The number of available workers is projected to decrease by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035.
• This will result in a net labor force reduction of 4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million by 2035, even after accounting for new entrants.
• Immigrant workers were responsible for 84.7% of U.S. labor force growth between 2019 and 2024, highlighting their critical role in economic expansion.
• The projected average annual economic growth rate is expected to fall from 1.8% to 1.3% between fiscal years 2025 and 2035, a decline of nearly one-third.

The Congressional Budget Office has also warned that the removal of immigrants could create labor shortages and increase inflation, further impeding progress toward stable and sustainable economic conditions as envisioned by SDG 8.

Challenges to SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

The immigration crackdown disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including refugees and migrants from specific nations, running counter to SDG 10, which calls for reducing inequality within and among countries and facilitating orderly, safe, and responsible migration (Target 10.7).

Policies Affecting Migrant and Refugee Populations

1. The reduction and suspension of refugee admissions.
2. A travel ban targeting 19 countries.
3. The termination of Temporary Protected Status for certain nationalities.
4. Prohibitions on international students working after graduation through Optional Practical Training (OPT).

Economic Contributions of Affected Groups

According to the American Immigration Council, households from the countries affected by the travel ban have made significant economic contributions that are now at risk, undermining efforts to foster inclusive societies. These contributions include:

• $3.2 billion in household income.
• $715.6 million in federal, state, and local taxes paid.
• $2.5 billion in spending power.

Sector-Specific Impacts and Related SDGs

The policies are projected to have far-reaching effects on key sectors of the economy, impacting goals related to food security, innovation, and industry.

SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and the Agricultural Sector

• The U.S. Labor Department has acknowledged that the immigration crackdown risks a severe labor shortage in the agriculture industry.
• This shortage threatens food production and supply chains, directly challenging the aims of SDG 2 to end hunger and promote sustainable agriculture.

SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and the Technology Sector

• New one-time fees of $100,000 for H-1B visas are expected to disrupt major technology companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, which rely on this program to recruit high-skilled talent.
• Restrictions on international students, a critical source of STEM expertise, could create a “chilling effect” that disrupts the U.S. talent pipeline and hinders progress on SDG 9, which seeks to build resilient infrastructure and foster innovation.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• The article’s central theme is the negative impact of immigration policies on the economy and labor market. It explicitly discusses a projected decline in the annual rate of economic growth, net job losses in the millions, and a reduction in the labor force, all of which are core components of SDG 8.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

• The policies discussed in the article specifically target groups based on their national origin and immigration status, such as refugees, international students, and individuals from 19 specific countries under a travel ban. This directly relates to SDG 10, which aims to reduce inequality within and among countries, including through well-managed migration policies.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• The article mentions that the immigration crackdown has “ramifications for the agriculture industry and food production.” It cites a Labor Department filing that acknowledges the risk of a “labor shortage” in this sector, which could impact food security and availability, connecting the issue to SDG 2.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

• The article details the negative effects on various business sectors, including technology (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta), hospitality, construction, retail, and manufacturing. The disruption to the talent pipeline, particularly in STEM fields, and the impact on industries that rely on immigrant labor connect to the goal of promoting sustainable industrialization and fostering innovation.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth. The article directly addresses this by stating that the immigration policies “will lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third” and reduce the projected average annual rate from 1.8% to 1.3%.
• Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all. The article highlights a direct contradiction to this target by forecasting a “net reduction in the labor force by a projected 4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million in 2035” and noting a decline of “1.1 million foreign-born workers” already.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

• Target 10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies. The article describes policies that are the antithesis of this target, such as “reducing and suspending refugee admissions,” a “travel ban on 19 countries,” and ending “Temporary Protected Status.” These actions represent restrictive, not well-managed, migration policies.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food. The article implies a threat to this target by highlighting the risk of a “labor shortage” in the agriculture industry, which could disrupt food production and supply chains.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

• Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization. The article shows how the policies could undermine this target by causing a “potential loss of hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers in sectors like information and educational and health services” and disrupting major tech companies that “heavily recruit workers” with high-skilled talent, thus hindering industrial growth and innovation.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• Indicator for Target 8.1: The article provides a direct measure of the annual growth rate of real GDP. It projects a decline in the “average annual economic growth rate to 1.3% from 1.8%.”
• Indicators for Target 8.5: Several quantitative indicators related to employment are mentioned:
  • Projected reduction in the number of workers: “6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035.”
  • Net reduction in the labor force: “4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million in 2035.”
  • Change in the number of foreign-born workers: A “decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers” since January of the administration’s start.
  • Labor force participation rate: The rate for U.S.-born workers “ticked lower to 61.6%.”

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

• Indicator for Target 10.7: While not a formal SDG indicator, the article provides metrics that show a move away from well-managed migration policies. These include the “travel ban on 19 countries” and the policy of “reducing and suspending refugee admissions.” The “chilling effect” on international students and other potential immigrants is also an implied qualitative indicator of restrictive policies.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• Indicator for Target 2.1: The article implies an indicator through the “labor shortage exacerbated by the near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens” in the agriculture industry, which can be measured to assess the impact on food production capacity.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

• Indicator for Target 9.2: The article suggests indicators such as the “potential loss of hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers in sectors like information and educational and health services” and the impact of the “$100,000 one-time fee for workers applying for new H-1B visas” on companies’ ability to recruit high-skilled talent.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article. In this table, list the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), their corresponding targets, and the specific indicators identified in the article.

SDGs	Targets	Indicators
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth	8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth. 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment.	– Projected decrease in average annual economic growth rate from 1.8% to 1.3%. – Net reduction in the labor force (4 million by 2028, 11 million by 2035). – Decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers in the labor force. – Labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers (61.6%).
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities	10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people.	– Implementation of restrictive policies (e.g., travel ban on 19 countries, reduced refugee admissions, ending Temporary Protected Status). – “Chilling effect” on potential migrants and international students.
SDG 2: Zero Hunger	2.1: End hunger and ensure access to sufficient food.	– Risk of a “labor shortage” in the agriculture industry impacting food production.
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure	9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization.	– Potential loss of hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers in key sectors (information, health services, manufacturing, etc.). – Disruption to the high-skilled talent pipeline (STEM) for major companies due to H-1B visa policies.

Source: fortune.com