The Impact of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields in the United States
Introduction
The United States is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn and soybeans globally – partly because of yields that are among the best in the world. But a changing climate could affect those yields, which could ultimately affect production and the availability of products for export.
Study Findings
In a recent report by the USDA, it was estimated that U.S. corn yields could increase by 3.1 percent and soybean yields could decrease by 3 percent in 2036 relative to 2016, based on climate projections. These changes are driven primarily by increased periods of extreme heat and declines in precipitation in certain counties in the United States. These yield projections were then used in a simulation model to explore the market implications. The results indicate that changes in yields could affect U.S. production and trade. Specifically, corn exports could increase by 0.36 percent ($63 million), while soybean exports could decrease by 1.17 percent ($319 million) based on 2016 exports.
Climate Change and Agricultural Production
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the United States will experience increasing temperatures and mild declines in precipitation toward the middle of the 21st century. These changes could lead to declines in crop yields due to extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. However, there have not been many studies that examine how past yields and their relationship with weather could help inform future yields, and how that can affect agricultural production and exports.
Methodology
The authors of the report used a multistep approach to estimate changes in corn and soybean yields under climate change. They first estimated county-specific marginal effects of climate change on yields using historical data. Then, they incorporated these yield projections into a global economic model to study the potential effects on U.S. agricultural production and trade.
County-Level Yield Changes
- The direction and magnitude of climate effects vary by U.S. county.
- Increasing temperatures are likely to hinder crop growth during the growing season.
- Declining precipitation during the growing season will affect crop growth.
Specifically, corn yields are projected to increase by 3.1 percent in bushels per acre, while soybean yields are projected to decrease by 3 percent in bushels per acre. The changes in yields vary by region, with some regions experiencing gains in corn and soybean yields, while others experience declines.
Market Implications
The analysis shows that changes in yields could affect U.S. agricultural production and trade patterns. Corn production is projected to increase by 0.11 percent across all U.S. corn-producing states, leading to a 0.36 percent increase in corn exports. On the other hand, soybean production is projected to decrease by 0.93 percent, resulting in a 1.17 percent decline in soybean exports. These changes in production are influenced by shifts in land allocation and yield changes.
Data Sources
The study used data from the USDA’s yearly survey on crop yields for corn and soybeans. Historical weather data, including temperature and precipitation, were collected from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model. Future climate scenarios were based on weather forecasts from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Conclusion
The study highlights the potential impact of climate change on corn and soybean yields in the United States. It emphasizes the need for more detailed analysis at the county level to understand the heterogeneity of yield changes. These findings have important implications for agricultural production and trade, and they align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to climate action and sustainable agriculture.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
- SDG 2: Zero Hunger – The article discusses the potential impact of climate change on corn and soybean yields, which are important crops for food production and nutrition.
- SDG 13: Climate Action – The article focuses on the changing climate and its potential effects on agricultural production and trade.
- SDG 15: Life on Land – The article highlights the importance of understanding the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use.
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
- SDG 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
- SDG 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
- SDG 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
- Changes in corn and soybean yields in 2036 relative to 2016 can be used as indicators to measure progress towards SDG 2.4.
- Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production and trade can be used as an indicator to measure progress towards SDG 13.1.
- Monitoring efforts to combat desertification, restore degraded land, and achieve land degradation neutrality can be used as indicators to measure progress towards SDG 15.3.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 2: Zero Hunger | 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality. | Changes in corn and soybean yields in 2036 relative to 2016. |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. | Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production and trade. |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. | Monitoring efforts to combat desertification, restore degraded land, and achieve land degradation neutrality. |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: agupdate.com
Join us, as fellow seekers of change, on a transformative journey at https://sdgtalks.ai/welcome, where you can become a member and actively contribute to shaping a brighter future.
