Discussion
Our simulation using the Social Genome Model indicates that preventing teen births is associated with important differences in life outcomes for everyone, but especially for women. When teen births are prevented in this simulation, young women attain more years of education, have higher earnings, experience higher incomes relative to the poverty level, and enjoy better mental health. These analyses suggest that early childbearing continues to be associated with long-term negative education and economic implications. One potential complicating factor: Since teen parents tend to enter the labor market at younger ages, by age 30 they have had more time to acquire job experience and salary increases. Thus, economic effects may be less apparent at age 30 than they will be later in life. Indeed, our simulation of lifelong earnings (age 65) shows substantial long-term gains in earnings when a teen birth is prevented.
These findings also have implications for equity. While rates of early childbearing have declined dramatically among Black, Hispanic, and White teens, rates remain higher among youth of color. These differences likely reflect structural impediments, including inequitable access to positive opportunities for education and career advancement, disparities in the availability and provision of medically accurate information on sexual and reproductive health, and disparities in knowledge of and access to contraceptive and other reproductive health services; together, these factors can limit educational and economic mobility. Furthermore, the lack of resources to support young parents as they continue their education—such as low availability of publicly funded family planning services or on-campus child care—can also contribute to continued disparities and repeat births. Given these relationships, policies, programs, and other prevention efforts must be more intentional in meeting the needs of young people in these communities.
Limitations
As with all microsimulations, this study has limitations that users should consider when interpreting its findings.
- The Social Genome Model is not a causal model and cannot be used to make causal conclusions; therefore, our simulation should be considered as a potential scenario.
- All regressions underlying the model are linear—the model does not account for any path that can lead to quadratic or cubic effects, nor does it account for any non-linear path.
- The longitudinal data used in our model are older by design in order to have data through age 30 (NLSY97 respondents were born during the years 1980 through 1984), and the Social Genome Model dataset may not fully represent the characteristics of adolescents today.
- All benefits of the simulation are quantified for individuals—not for society. The results presented in this brief do not encompass the benefits to society that are associated with having a better-educated, healthier, and higher-earning population.
- These results focus on outcomes for parents and do not assess outcomes for children. Substantial research has found negative effects of poverty, family instability, and other adverse childhood experiences on the development of children, all of which are more common among young parents.
In addition, while we are able to stratify our simulations by race/ethnicity (Black, Hispanic, and White and other) and by sex (male and female)—to account for underlying social and economic differences and to identify the different effects that preventing teen births would have for each group—we’re unable to account for all of the heterogeneity in teen birth experiences. The Social Genome Model measure of having a child(ren) by adolescence (before age 20) groups all adolescent experiences together and is unable to assess differences in outcomes that could result if the adolescent were an older teen when they had their child(ren) or if the pregnancy were wanted. The Social Genome Model also does not include measures of protective factors or supports from which adolescents in our sample might benefit (e.g., adolescent is married; adolescent was a high school graduate before they had their child; family, friends, or adolescents’ school or workplace provide child care), and which would mitigate the potential consequences of having a child(ren) during the teen years. Finally, this simulation does not directly account for social determinants of health—such as racial segregation, income inequality, access to health care and health insurance, and the type and receipt of school-based sexual education—that may contribute to higher teen birth rates.
Considerations for future research and programs
Research and programmatic efforts should continue to encourage and support teens in delaying childbearing. While some births, especially to older teens, are desired, most teen births are not. Moreover, relationships initiated at young ages are highly likely to break up, undermining the economic and social support available to the parent and to the child. Our simulation results using the Social Genome Model indicate that important increases in education, earnings, mental health, and income relative to poverty would occur for young people of color, especially, as teen births are averted.
Research has concluded that simply providing information on abstinence and contraceptive methods does not yield significant changes in youth sexual behaviors. Instead, evidence suggests that comprehensive sexuality education and taking a positive youth development approach to adolescent sexual and reproductive health may be more effective. Examples of potentially successful prevention efforts include encouraging educational engagement, implementing evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention programs, providing medically accurate information about reproductive health and contraception, improving access and utilization of teen-friendly health services and school-based sexual and reproductive health services, expanding access to family planning services and Title X clinics, and integrating positive youth development and a social determinants of health approach into teen pregnancy prevention.
One example of a research-based sexual health promotion program that is grounded in positive youth development principles is El Camino, a curriculum developed by Child Trends. This free curriculum, available in both English and Spanish, encourages adolescents to articulate their personal goals and identify strategies to reach their goals, allowing them to assess whether early parenthood aligns with the goals they identified. When adolescents consider the effects of childbearing on their lives and personal goals, many become more open to information and messages about practicing safe sex and delaying sex and pregnancy.
Despite the best research and programmatic investments in and attention on preventive efforts, we know that teen births will continue to occur. It is important that we also invest in navigation services and programs and resources that will support and meet the diverse needs of expectant and parenting teens so that all teens (and their children) have the opportunity to thrive.
While the rate of teen childbearing has declined in the United States, rates remain considerably higher than in other developed nations. The experiences of other countries suggest that continued reductions in the frequency of adolescent parenthood are possible. Our Social Genome Model simulation suggests that delays in teen parenthood would yield substantial benefits for young people across racial and ethnic groups.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 4: Quality Education | 4.1 By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes | N/A |
| SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth | 8.5 By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value | N/A |
| SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities | 10.2 By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status | N/A |
| SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being | 3.7 By 2030, ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services, including for family planning, information and education, and the integration of reproductive health into national strategies and programs | N/A |
| SDG 1: No Poverty | 1.2 By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions | N/A |
| SDG 5: Gender Equality | 5.6 Ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights as agreed in accordance with the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development and the Beijing Platform for Action and the outcome documents of their review conferences | N/A |
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Source: childtrends.org
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